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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#51

Post by b65e8bee43c2ed0 »

bshaughn wrote: post #38
AbstractH24 wrote: post #6

Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading? Fool and his money are quickly separated…

It gives people in power, wether it be the government or even an NBA ref, a vehicle to profit off of conflicts of interest / fixing games / etc... Ive seen people point out White House press conferences do weird shit, like cut the conference 10 seconds before some polymarket prop bet of "how long will this press conference be". Much more heinously, a few months ago right before one of Trumps asinine tariff announceme…

>It gives people in power, wether it be the government or even an NBA ref, a vehicle to profit off of conflicts of interest / fixing games / etc...

there is the stock market for those things, where insider trading is nigh invisible to public.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#52

Post by elphinstone »

networkadmin wrote: post #8

The whole nation is eaten up by gambling and other vices at this time. It's not the first time such a thing has happened in a nation's history. Generally it occurs just after widespread monetary debasement and just before major, world shaking disasters. (You Are Here.) Reference: Andrew Dickson White (first president of Cornell) "Fiat Money Inflation In France", published 1896: "The government now began, and continue…

He's writing about Revolutionary France's debasement, but Mackay's Extraordinary Delusions documents France's debasement under John Law about 70 years earlier, which shows how easily such mistakes are repeated.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#53

Post by keiferski »

kelipso wrote: post #50
keiferski wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, I don’t think not wanting gambling and amoral behavior to consume society makes me a conservative in any real sense of the word. More just common sense pragmatism, is how I’d put it.

The Chesterton’s Fence argument is an argument against progressive social changes, no?

No, it’s an argument against removing rules / making changes without deeply understanding why those rules exist in the first place, and what might happen when they are removed.

It’s perfectly fine to be for progressive social changes, as long as those criteria are met.

I’d call that a pragmatic approach, not a conservative one.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#54

Post by furyofantares »

AbstractH24 wrote: post #6

Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading? Fool and his money are quickly separated…

Zvi Mowshowitz has an excellent article on the devastating effects that legalizing sports betting has had: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-online-sports-gambling-exp...

Personally I find it sickening to see ads that say you can get rich betting on the weather. I haven't seen ads for polymarket but Kalshi's ads are absolutely predatory.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#55

Post by gilleain »

networkadmin wrote: post #40
microtonal wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the point of posting entire book fragments here?

So that lazy people who form their worldview via a Quick Google Search, Wikipedia articles, and/or "news media" can actually have a chance to learn something real about the time they are living in. It's like a dozen paragraphs, forming one complete argument. Is this too much material to take in all at once, in this brave new TLDR tomorrow?

Neat in theory, but in practice ineffective. Those who might read multiple large exerpts from a book would actually seek out the source.

Do as you wish, however I doubt this will have the effect you want here.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#56

Post by wgjordan »

networkadmin wrote: post #40
microtonal wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the point of posting entire book fragments here?

So that lazy people who form their worldview via a Quick Google Search, Wikipedia articles, and/or "news media" can actually have a chance to learn something real about the time they are living in. It's like a dozen paragraphs, forming one complete argument. Is this too much material to take in all at once, in this brave new TLDR tomorrow?

> It's like a dozen paragraphs, forming one complete argument. Is this too much material to take in all at once, in this brave new TLDR tomorrow?

The issue is not that you cited a dozen-paragraph argument, it's that you inlined all the text directly into a series of comments instead of a link to the text on a separate page. It visually overwhelms the discussion thread and is disruptive to the broader discussion, which is not strictly against guidelines but generally seen as non-normative behavior.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#58

Post by torginus »

AbstractH24 wrote: post #6

Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading? Fool and his money are quickly separated…

It's a website where people can make bets on how certain geopolitical and public events shake out.

I used to think it's just yet another way to people with more money than sense to get their kicks.

But then I saw the true reason why the platform is terrifying - it gives people who have nontrivial amounts riding on the line a very powerful incentive to influence said events.

I have seen expertly crafted and highly convincing narratives - that I know to be false from firsthand experience - spring up inside (and presumably outside) the platform spring up on an issue. There was the thing where the ISW (a reputable military think tank) reported an Ukrainian city was captured (when in fact it wasn't) in order to win a bet.

Imagine if next time someone leaks some military intel in order to hedge a bet. Money, especially lots of it, is a very powerful motivator.

There's also no way to check and control who has insider info or has influence on the outcome (as betting against them is essentially suicide)

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#59

Post by cyanydeez »

keiferski wrote: post #44
BurningFrog wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, like myself, you're just aging into being a bit of a conservative.

Eh, I don’t think not wanting gambling and amoral behavior to consume society makes me a conservative in any real sense of the word. More just common sense pragmatism, is how I’d put it.

Think of it as grift and not gambling.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#60

Post by dang »

networkadmin wrote: post #10
networkadmin wrote: post #8

The whole nation is eaten up by gambling and other vices at this time. It's not the first time such a thing has happened in a nation's history. Generally it occurs just after widespread monetary debasement and just before major, world shaking disasters. (You Are Here.) Reference: Andrew Dickson White (first president of Cornell) "Fiat Money Inflation In France", published 1896: "The government now began, and continue…

"The mercantile classes at first thought themselves exempt from the general misfortune. They were delighted at the apparent advance in the value of the goods upon their shelves. But they soon found that, as they increased prices to cover the inflation of currency and the risk from fluctuation and uncertainty, purchases became less in amount and payments less sure; a feeling of insecurity spread throughout the country…

Please don't make posts consisting of quotes and nothing else. HN is a supposed to be a site for curious conversation. It's not hard to see how posts like this interrupt that and bog it down - imagine someone at a dinner party* reading entire paragraphs like this out loud.

(* I don't know why I said "dinner party", since I don't go to those, the conversation usually isn't good, and they aren't my idea of fun, but oh well, it makes the point)

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