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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#51

Post by genocidicbunny »

Fiveplus wrote: post #36
alex43578 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t the smaller die aspect more valuable early in the node’s maturity, where defects are less punishing?

That is the traditional textbook yield curve logic, if I'm not wrong? Smaller area = higher probability of a surviving die on a dirty wafer. But I wonder if the sheer margin on AI silicon basically breaks that rule? If Nvidia can sell a reticle-sized package for 25k-30k USD, they might be perfectly happy paying for a wafer that only yields 30-40% good dies. Apple OTOH operates at consumer electronics price points. Th…

I am curious about the binning factor too since in the past, AMD and Intel have both made use of defect binning to still sell usable chips by disabling cores. Perhaps Apple is able to do the same with their SoCs? It's not likely to be as granular as Nvidia who can disable much smaller areas of the silicon for each of their cores. On the other hand, the specifics of the silicon and the layout of the individual cores, not to mention the spread of defects over the die might mitigate that advantage.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#52

Post by nebula8804 »

Fiveplus wrote: post #36
alex43578 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t the smaller die aspect more valuable early in the node’s maturity, where defects are less punishing?

That is the traditional textbook yield curve logic, if I'm not wrong? Smaller area = higher probability of a surviving die on a dirty wafer. But I wonder if the sheer margin on AI silicon basically breaks that rule? If Nvidia can sell a reticle-sized package for 25k-30k USD, they might be perfectly happy paying for a wafer that only yields 30-40% good dies. Apple OTOH operates at consumer electronics price points. Th…

I thought they binned CPUs for things like AppleTV and lower cost iPads?

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#53

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

engineer_22 wrote: post #50

I find that my cell phone which is 4 generations old and my desktop computer which is 2 generations old are totally adequate for everything I need to do, and I do not need faster processing

We have data, people are buying phones in aggregate about every 2.5 - 3 years. Especially in the US where almost no one pays for a phone outright

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#55

Post by znpy »

WesolyKubeczek wrote: post #10

...and then China invades Taiwan, and nobody ain't getting nothing.

I think Taiwan invasion by China will happen after foundries are built in the UI.

My conspiracy theory is that there is some kind of "gentleman agreement" on this topic between the US and China.

As soon as Taiwan is not needed anymore by the US for chip fabrication, the US will at the very least loose their grip on it.

Note to commenters: that's my theory, does not mean I endorse it in any way.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#56

Post by outside1234 »

ericmay wrote: post #14
outside1234 wrote: post #2

Ha! Well if it isn't karma that has come for Apple. (Apple is well known for shoving "lesser vendors" out of the way at TSMC)

Is it karma or is it just normal business activities? When you're a large player like this you get pricing power. If another large player moves in and also has pricing power then negotiations and things like that take place. Business deals, profits, &c. all ebb and flow and this is no different.

It is just normal business. At the end of the day money talks -- and only Nvidia has more money than Apple -- for now.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#57

Post by alex43578 »

Fiveplus wrote: post #36
alex43578 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t the smaller die aspect more valuable early in the node’s maturity, where defects are less punishing?

That is the traditional textbook yield curve logic, if I'm not wrong? Smaller area = higher probability of a surviving die on a dirty wafer. But I wonder if the sheer margin on AI silicon basically breaks that rule? If Nvidia can sell a reticle-sized package for 25k-30k USD, they might be perfectly happy paying for a wafer that only yields 30-40% good dies. Apple OTOH operates at consumer electronics price points. Th…

With current AI pricing for silicon, I think the math’s gone out the window.

For Apple, they have binning flexibility, with Pro/Max/Ultra, all the way down to iPads - and that’s after the node yields have been improved via the gazillion iPhone SoC dies.

NVIDIAs flexibility came from using some of those binned dies for GeForce cards, but the VRAM situation is clearly making that less important, as they’re cutting some of those SKUs for being too vram heavy relative to MSRP.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#58

Post by cowsandmilk »

outside1234 wrote: post #2

Ha! Well if it isn't karma that has come for Apple. (Apple is well known for shoving "lesser vendors" out of the way at TSMC)

Apple doesn’t operate the fab, TSMC does. Apple doesn’t shove anyone out of the way, TSMC makes those decisions. It is weird to blame Apple.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#59

Post by jobs_throwaway »

captain_coffee wrote: post #43

Legit question - what is the current status of the construction of chip production factories in the US? I know about the existence of the initiative but I don't know how it is progressing / what is actually going on on that front.

TMSC's Arizona fab is up and running producing 4nm chips

There's ~a dozen in the works or under construction

TMSC plans to have 2-3nm fabs operational in the next 2-3 years

So we're 2-3 years behind the standard (currently 2nm), and further behind on the bleeding edge sub-2nm fabs

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#60

Post by petcat »

NonHyloMorph wrote: post #48
petcat wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US has its own TSMC supply (insert comments about it not being cutting edge) USA has been strategically re-homing TSMC to the US mainland for a long time now. 30% of all 2nm and better technologies are slated to be produced in Arizona by 2030. The real loser in all of this will be the EU which will be completely without the ability to produce or acquire chips. They'll just end up buying from China and USA, whic…

ASML...

ASML is a critical component, but they don't actually build the chips. And a significant part of their technology is developed in California anyway.
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