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The next two years of software engineering

addyosmani.com

51–60 of 403 posts

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#52

For some reason miss two important points: 1) The AI code maintainence question - who would maintain the AI generated code 2) The true cost of AI. Once the VC/PE money runs out and companies charge the full cost, what would happen to vibe coding at that point ?

I think this post is a great example of a different point made in this thread. People confuse vibe-coding with llm-assisted coding all the time (no shade for you, OP). There is an implied bias that all LLM code is bad, unmaintainable, incomprehensible. That's not necessarily the case.

1) Either you, the person owning the code, or you + LLms, or just the LLMs in the future. All of them can work. And they can work better with a bit of prep work.

The latest models are very good at following instructions. So instead of "write a service that does X" you can use the tools to ask for specifics (i.e. write a modular service, that uses concept A and concept B to do Y. It should use x y z tech stack. It should use this ruleset, these conventions. Before testing run these linters and these formatters. Fix every env error before testing. etc).

That's the main difference between vibe-coding and llm-assisted coding. You get to decide what you ask for. And you get to set the acceptance criteria. The key po9int that non-practitioners always miss is that once a capability becomes available to these models, you can layer them on top of previous capabilities and get a better end result. Higher instruction adherence -> better specs -> longer context -> better results -> better testing -> better overall loop.

2) You are confusing the fact that some labs subsidise inference costs (for access to data, usage metrics, etc) with the true cost of inference on a given model size. Youc an already have a good indication on what the cost is today for any given model size. 3rd party inference shops exist today, and they are not subsidising the costs (they have no reason to). You can do the math as well, and figure out an average cost per token for a given capability. And those open models are out, they're not gonna change, and you can get the same capability tomorrow or in 10 years. (and likely at lower costs, since hardware improves, inference stack improves, etc).

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#53
Sometimes I wonder if I made the wrong choice with software development. Even after getting to a senior role, according to this article, you're still expected to get more education and work on side projects outside of work. Am I supposed to want to code all the time? When can I pursue hobbies, a social life, etc.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#54
One thing that fucks with juniors is the expecration of paying for subscriptions for AI models. If you need to know how the AI tools work, you need to learn them with your own money.

Not everyone can afford it, and then we are at the point of changing the field that was so proud about just needing a computer and access to internet to teach oneself into a subscription service.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#55

Sometimes I wonder if I made the wrong choice with software development. Even after getting to a senior role, according to this article, you're still expected to get more education and work on side projects outside of work. Am I supposed to want to code all the time? When can I pursue hobbies, a social life, etc.

It's funny you should ask this. When I started out, 30 years ago, here were the answers you'd get from most people:

> Am I supposed to want to code all the time?

Yes.

> When can I pursue hobbies,

Your hobby should be coding fun apps for yourself

> a social life, etc.

You social life should be hanging out with other engineers talking about engineering things.

And the most successful people I know basically did exactly that.

I'm not saying y'all should be doing that now, I'm just saying, that is in fact how it used to be.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#56

Sometimes I wonder if I made the wrong choice with software development. Even after getting to a senior role, according to this article, you're still expected to get more education and work on side projects outside of work. Am I supposed to want to code all the time? When can I pursue hobbies, a social life, etc.

To put it very directly - if you are OK with being good but not exceptional at your job, this is totally fine. If you want to be exceptional you will probably need to put in the extra work. Not everyone is OK with this tradeoff and it's totally fine to "just" be good and care more about having outside hobbies and a social life and etc.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#57
post #54

One thing that fucks with juniors is the expecration of paying for subscriptions for AI models. If you need to know how the AI tools work, you need to learn them with your own money. Not everyone can afford it, and then we are at the point of changing the field that was so proud about just needing a computer and access to internet to teach oneself into a subscription service.

If the AI gets so good then they shouldn’t need to pre-learn.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#58

> Junior developers: Make yourself AI-proficient and versatile. Demonstrate that one junior plus AI can match a small team’s output. Use AI coding agents (Cursor/Antigravity/Claude Code/Gemini CLI) to build bigger features, but understand and explain every line if not most. Focus on skills AI can’t easily replace: communication, problem decomposition, domain knowledge. Look at adjacent roles (QA, DevRel, data analyti…

What. That’s written in a way that’s like “men writing women”. Not putting themselves in the shoes of a junior who has no context or almost no opportunities.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#59

Funny that he mentions people not pivoting away from COBOL. My neighbors work for a bank, programming in COBOL every day. When I moved in and met them 14 years ago, I wondered how much longer they would be able to keep that up. They're still doing it.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#60
post #54

One thing that fucks with juniors is the expecration of paying for subscriptions for AI models. If you need to know how the AI tools work, you need to learn them with your own money. Not everyone can afford it, and then we are at the point of changing the field that was so proud about just needing a computer and access to internet to teach oneself into a subscription service.

You can get by pretty well with the ~$20/month plans for either Claude or Gemini. You don't need to be doing the $200/month ones just to get a sense of how they work.
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