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Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

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Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#51

Republicans say Nate Silver is a biased liberal, and reading his blog this election cycle makes it seem that way to me even. But I would like to know - is there a Republican analog to Nate Silver? Someone who predicts 90% of the races at the end, does the meta-math, and has a computer model? If there is no Republican analog, can you possibly say Nate Silver is liberal or biased? Does using a computer model and math,…

No, but the GOP side does have a Bizarro version of him: http://www.businessinsider.com/unskewed-polling-dean-chamber...

His methodology seems to be "ignore any poll that is bad for Republicans".

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it truly is science vs. religion, then the Republican party will die and be reborn as something new. Religion loses to science over the course of history.

I wish that were true. Once religion, especially fundamentalist religion, gets control, science is in real trouble. Read Heinlein's "Revolt in 2100".

Read Heinlein's "Revolt in 2100".

Is that intended as a recommendation of a scientific source about long-term trends cross-culturally? I got a big volume of the collected "future history" stories by Robert Heinlein out of the library a year ago, and I was disappointed by how poorly those stories have aged. I also figured out, by rereading Heinlein (a favorite author of mine when I was a kid) that he never informed any of his stories with much perspective from non-Western cultures (although I give him credit for being aware of that kind of issue). Since I spent three years in the 1980s and later another three years spanning the turn of the last century living in a non-Western country, I don't turn to Western science-fiction stories anymore for my social commentary. I like to read real science based on verifiable history to puzzle out social trends. I can recommend a source

http://www.amazon.com/The-Better-Angels-Our-Nature/dp/014312...

and invite other readers here to recommend other sources. I'm not worried about fundamentalist religion "getting control" of science.

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#53
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat?

Yes, but only if you also ignore the scientific consensus on genetically modified food, vaccines, nuclear energy, and hydraulic fracking :)

Three of those are policy issues (how much testing should be done on GMO's, how risk adverse should we be on nuclear power plants given the potential for shoddy construction like in Fukushima, where should we build energy plants and refineries). On these issues, the democrats are being, ironically enough, conservative, as in risk adverse. They are not denying that you _can_ grow GMO's, that you _can_ split the atom, or that you _can_ perform hydraulic fracking (which Obama has supported, so I don't see how this is a democrat issue). This is in stark contrast to the previous issues where the mere existence of a phenomenon (evolution, global warming, and the big bang) is denied. With luck, global warming will move into the policy disagreement realm, and out denial box soon.

Anti-vaccination is a fringe movement, and party independent (Michelle Bachmann got on the anti-vax wagon). The democrats aren't putting anti-vaxxers on the house science committee.

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#54
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Today's the day you learn about Yogiisms.

Sure it's Yogi? It's also attributed to Samuel Goldwyn and Mark Twain. (I doubt the Twain association).

"All quotes, given enough time, are attributed to Mark Twain" - Mark Twain

Actually, I saw this one assigned to Neil Bohr. Sounds like a Yogi-ism though.

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#55
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat?

Yes, but only if you also ignore the scientific consensus on genetically modified food, vaccines, nuclear energy, and hydraulic fracking :)

I'd deny that anti-vaccine idiocy is part of the Democratic platform the same way anthropogenic global warming denialism is part of the Republican party platform. Do you have any evidence it is?

I also don't know about anti-GMO idiocy, frankly.

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#56
post #36
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat?

> Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat? The correlation is with misunderstanding all three and coming to bogus conclusions. Let's take evolution. There are lots of folks, typically Democrats, who insist that it is fundamental to all of science. (Hint - that's clearly false. Disagree? How does evolution matter outside biol…

> Hint - that's clearly false. Disagree? How does evolution matter outside biology? Too hard? Name three biology subfields that don't work without evolution? Too hard? Name three things in biology that were predicted using evolution?

Gish Galloping wins you no support. It's a dishonest tactic that attempts to flood the opposition with questions that require more time to answer than they do to ask. It's a Denial of Service attack, not an argument.

> Clearly false when Akin said it, but what does everyone say to a couple trying to get pregnant? Yup - "you've got to maintain a positive mental attitude." (I don't know whether mental attitude matters - I'm just pointing out the double-standard.)

Because Akin was minimizing rape. He was trying to de-legitimize the experiences of victims of a violent crime. Do you really not understand how people get upset over that?

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#57
post #9

Republicans say Nate Silver is a biased liberal, and reading his blog this election cycle makes it seem that way to me even. But I would like to know - is there a Republican analog to Nate Silver? Someone who predicts 90% of the races at the end, does the meta-math, and has a computer model? If there is no Republican analog, can you possibly say Nate Silver is liberal or biased? Does using a computer model and math,…

It's just a time tested tactic of discrediting a result you dislike in order to prevent your constituents from becoming apathetic and potentially not voting. If Republicans actually concede that Nate Silver's results are legitimate and unbiased (if they are), than the party would have a much harder time raising money and getting out the vote. It's better to frame it as a conspiracy so less people take it seriously.

If you follow much of his writing/tweeting, he doesn't disguise much opinion, which has a liberal slant - but the pure math of his project is pretty hard to argue against.

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#58

Republicans say Nate Silver is a biased liberal, and reading his blog this election cycle makes it seem that way to me even. But I would like to know - is there a Republican analog to Nate Silver? Someone who predicts 90% of the races at the end, does the meta-math, and has a computer model? If there is no Republican analog, can you possibly say Nate Silver is liberal or biased? Does using a computer model and math,…

Reminds me of the meme "reality has a well-known liberal bias". I don't know or suspect whether that's true or not. But I have noticed personally in life that whenever someone is both intelligent, educated, is compassionate/empathic and does long-term thinking, that person also seems to be "liberal", progressive or left-leaning, politics wise. Perhaps not always. But most of the time, based on my observations. I think if you have those traits but take away compassion/empathy, and focus more on short-term/short-range thinking, you're more likely to be "conservative", or right-leaning.

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#59

Republicans say Nate Silver is a biased liberal, and reading his blog this election cycle makes it seem that way to me even. But I would like to know - is there a Republican analog to Nate Silver? Someone who predicts 90% of the races at the end, does the meta-math, and has a computer model? If there is no Republican analog, can you possibly say Nate Silver is liberal or biased? Does using a computer model and math,…

Well the proof is in the pudding. His performance on the 2008 and 2010 election indicate to me he's not some partisan hack. He accurately predicted all of the EVs Obama obtained in 2008 with the exception of Indiana (which was quite close - only a few hundred votes in the margin IIRC). He did exceptionally well in 2010, coming in 3rd for accuracy behind Survey USA and PPP (A democratic shop, incidentally) in house race prediction.

Silver is politically liberal but he's a stats guy at heart.

The republican equivalent would be Unskewed Polls http://unskewedpolls.com/ which re-weights partisan affiliation of polls to match Rasmussen (The result: Romney is WAY ahead). It's author isn't a big stats guy and goes more off gut. This comparison isn't entirely fair though. Republican polsters and aggregators are probably private, working inside campaigns and not for a public news organization.

You can be politically liberal or conservative and not have it directly spill into your work.

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#60
post #36
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat?

> Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat? The correlation is with misunderstanding all three and coming to bogus conclusions. Let's take evolution. There are lots of folks, typically Democrats, who insist that it is fundamental to all of science. (Hint - that's clearly false. Disagree? How does evolution matter outside biol…

There are lots of folks, typically Democrats, who insist that it is fundamental to all of science. (Hint - that's clearly false. Disagree?

Of course evolution is not fundamental to ALL of science. For instance chemistry is based on current measurements, not what happened in prehistory. But you are overstating your position.

How does evolution matter outside biology?

Evolution matters to geology because specific fossils are often used as a cross-reference for the age of specific rocks. Indeed such "indicator fossils" are important economically because of how they are used in oil exploration.

There are also applications of fossils to astronomy, for instance fossil corals have been used to verify how the number of days in a year have changed over time.

Too hard? Name three biology subfields that don't work without evolution?

1. The study of evolution itself.

2. Ecology. A very large part of ecology is based on understanding the Evolutionarily Stable Strategies of living organisms. For everything from mating to parenting behaviors, what animals do is explained by how it is selected for evolutionarily.

3. Taxonomy. We classify living organisms based on the best guesses we can come up with for where their ancestors were in the evolutionary tree. We reconstruct those trees using everything from physical characteristics to molecular genetics. NONE of it makes any sense without common descent.

Too hard? Name three things in biology that were predicted using evolution?)

1. (Prediction made by Charles Darwin. Confirmed many decades later by Leakey's discovery of Lucy and other fossils.) Fossils for early humans would be localized to Africa. Based on homology, humans are clearly an ape. Since existing ape species are mostly found in Africa, our ancestors are likely to be found in Africa as well.

2. (Prediction made by Edmond O. Wilson, later confirmed by him) In slaver ants, male and female babies should be treated equally if there is a good supply of slaves, and should be treated unequally (as they are in most ants) if there aren't. The cause of the unequal treatment of males and females in an ant colony is that a quirk of genetics causes females to share 75% of genes with sisters, and only 50% with parents or brothers. Therefore female ants are willing to devote their lives to the production of more sisters. This causes preferential behavior for female larvae. In slaver ants this disappears because the slaves are controlled by the queen who is equally related to sons and daughters. Remove the slaves, and the daughters express their genetic preference.

3. (Made and confirmed many times by a variety of people.) Pylogenetic reconstructions of evolutionary tree are robust to the specific set of characteristics chosen for that reconstruction. The branching in characteristics reflects the actual ancestry of the animals, and so two sets characteristics will tend to reveal the same ancestral branching pattern. (There are exceptions where common evolutionary pressures cause disparate animals to have similar adaptations. But these are well-understood.)

Now let me guess. You don't believe in evolution, believe that you understand science, and it surprises you that I'd actually find your challenge easy. If so I would urge you to open up your mind, go to http://www.talkorigins.org/, and educate yourself.

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