51–57 of 57 posts
I was willing to give this a chance because maybe he meant it won't happen soon , but no he's actually saying it will never happen. Crazy.
Why is that idea "crazy", prima facie?
It's an intellectually lazy argument to make. Like saying "we will never walk on the moon" in the 1900's.
AGI will never happen for one simple and obvious reason: there will never be a consensus about what AGI is. This has always been the issue. This is an argument I made more than 20 years ago. AGI, whatever it is as a technical problem, is mainly a TESTING problem. If you don’t solve that, then AGI is remains a matter of faith. A cult.
You and I might agree that it's not AGI, but that's not going to stop Sam Altman from using such a bogus claim to pump share prices right before an IPO.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Binary logic (aka a computer) can be used to model or simulate anything that has a clear mathematical definition. Currently, "intelligence" is lacking a clear mathematical definition.
> Currently, "intelligence" is lacking a clear mathematical definition. On the contrary, there are many. You just don't like them. E.g. skill of prediction.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is that idea "crazy", prima facie?
"Never" is an incredibly strong word, and in the bigger scheme of humanity, the universe, and the next billion or so years, _everything_ that we can imagine will happen. It's an intellectually lazy argument to make. Like saying "we will never walk on the moon" in the 1900's.
Believing we even know what AGI "is", let alone that we understand a direct path to achieving it, is truly an article of faith. There is no scientific basis for a development of human-level intelligence within our lifetimes, let alone the buzzword du jour of "superintelligence".
I'm convinced that we'll get AGI within the decade. But only because these large AI companies are controlling the narrative for the most part, and it's in their best interest to actually be the first one to announce that they achieved AGI. Whether the AGI that they announce is actually AGI or not is a completely different debate. The goalposts will just continue to be moved until the statement is true.
Why did this get flagged?