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Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

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Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#51
post #41

What specifically happened in June to set this off? It can't just be " waves hands AI/LLMs" because ChatGPT has existed for years.

> What specifically happened in June to set this off?

Tariffs implemented by this administration:

  "Inflation has begun to show the first signs of tariff 
  pass-through," said Ellen Zentner, chief economic 
  strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. "While 
  services inflation continues to moderate, the acceleration 
  in tariff-exposed goods in June is likely the first of 
  greater price pressures to come. The Fed will want to hold 
  steady as it awaits more data."[0]

0 - https://www.reuters.com/business/us-inflation-expected-rise-...

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#52
post #50

https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram... On October 1st OpenAI signed two simultaneous deals with Samsung and SK Hynix for 40% of the worlds DRAM supply... the shock wasn’t that OpenAI made a big deal, no, it was that they made two massive deals this big, at the same time, with Samsung and SK Hynix simultaneously! In fact, according to our sources - both companies had no idea how big each other…

> Had Samsung known SK Hynix was about to commit a similar chunk of supply — or vice-versa — the pricing and terms would have likely been different Wouldn't this be ... collusion? Implicitly arguing that the memory oligopoly should have been coordinating is ... quite something. OpenAI may well be doing something anticompetitive by cornering supply to foreclose competitors, but saying "they tricked the suppliers into…

They have, rather famously, been caught doing financial shenanigans before. [0]

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#53
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, but from a platform and brand development perspective, there may be smarter strategies. Their interest isn't necessarily in squeezing out the most margin on each unit. If unexpected market conditions let them more or less hit their original margin targets but get far more units installed in homes, that could be much better for them in the long term. There's a lot we can't know as outsiders, at the moment.

> that could be much better for them in the long term. i agree. Valve's money machine is with the steam platform, rather than any hardware sales - breaking even on hardware is sufficient imho. Valve's existential threat is from microsoft closing off windows somehow (or extracting rent...like a store!). Therefore, pushing steam machines which can be run without windows, is both business expansion as well as an insuran…

> i agree. Valve's money machine is with the steam platform, rather than any hardware sales - breaking even on hardware is sufficient imho.

Wasn't that true with the previous incarnation of the steam machine, the valve index, steam controller, etc.? IIRC their VR gear was some of the most expensive consumer level gear on the market.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#54
I upgraded my pc about this time last year (new CPU, RAM, and motherboard).

I was originally going to just get 64GB of DDR5-6000, with the option of adding another 64GB later, thinking the price might drop even further. At the last minute, I decided to get the whole 128GB instead. Glad I did.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#55
post #50

https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram... On October 1st OpenAI signed two simultaneous deals with Samsung and SK Hynix for 40% of the worlds DRAM supply... the shock wasn’t that OpenAI made a big deal, no, it was that they made two massive deals this big, at the same time, with Samsung and SK Hynix simultaneously! In fact, according to our sources - both companies had no idea how big each other…

> Had Samsung known SK Hynix was about to commit a similar chunk of supply — or vice-versa — the pricing and terms would have likely been different Wouldn't this be ... collusion? Implicitly arguing that the memory oligopoly should have been coordinating is ... quite something. OpenAI may well be doing something anticompetitive by cornering supply to foreclose competitors, but saying "they tricked the suppliers into…

A competitive auction would not be collusion.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#56

https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram... On October 1st OpenAI signed two simultaneous deals with Samsung and SK Hynix for 40% of the worlds DRAM supply... the shock wasn’t that OpenAI made a big deal, no, it was that they made two massive deals this big, at the same time, with Samsung and SK Hynix simultaneously! In fact, according to our sources - both companies had no idea how big each other…

Novice question: If they built something other than classic dram modules with the wafers maybe they could achieve faster bus speeds? How does Apple do it?

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#58

https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram... On October 1st OpenAI signed two simultaneous deals with Samsung and SK Hynix for 40% of the worlds DRAM supply... the shock wasn’t that OpenAI made a big deal, no, it was that they made two massive deals this big, at the same time, with Samsung and SK Hynix simultaneously! In fact, according to our sources - both companies had no idea how big each other…

The cynic in me thinks this would be a convenient way for these memory producers to manufacture demand, while also making OpenAI look good on paper. It’s not like they haven’t been caught price fixing in the past. Win win for these companies and a loss for everyone else.

If manufacturing fake demand (warehousing 900,000 memory wafers per month?) doubles and triples customer prices, it would decrease real demand, hurting the manufacturers after the artificial demand ends.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#59
post #41

What specifically happened in June to set this off? It can't just be " waves hands AI/LLMs" because ChatGPT has existed for years.

> What specifically happened in June to set this off? Tariffs implemented by this administration: "Inflation has begun to show the first signs of tariff pass-through," said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. "While services inflation continues to moderate, the acceleration in tariff-exposed goods in June is likely the first of greater price pressures to come. The Fed will wa…

Afraid not. This has not happened across the board to all components.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#60
post #7

To put this in long term relation. Even current DDR4 3200 DIMM prices are at an all time high. These are 6+ year old chip specs now! I even thought stuff was overpriced four years ago in mid-2021 already, but this is a whole new level. Some sample long term data for those: https://geizhals.eu/?phist=2151624&age=9999

anyone want to buy a 2x16 GB DDR4-3200 kit that only fails memtest86 some of the time?
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