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I am just sooo sick of AI prediction content, let's kill it already

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Re: I am just sooo sick of AI prediction content, let's kill it already

#51

Post by moron4hire »

criley2 wrote: post #28
bigstrat2003 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only prediction that I think is robust is: Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow. That's not a robust prediction. Many people who don't use AI today simply don't do so because they've tried it, and found it subtracts value. Those people will not be replaced tomorrow, they will merely reevaluate the tool and start using it if it has started to add value.

If jobs were based on self-perceived value addition there would never be a layoff ever Your executive team is going to "remove" non-AI folks regardless of their claims about efficiency. Just like they forced you to return to office while ignoring the exact same efficiency claims. They had realestate to protect. Now they have AI to protect.

"Now they have AI to protect," you're ultimately talking about corporate leadership being susceptible to the sunk cost fallacy here. But AI investment is a particularly easy sunk cost to get out of compared to real estate. Real estate has lease obligations and moving costs; it will cost you a lot more in the short term to get rid of your real estate. AI you could just stop using and immediately see cost reduction.

Re: I am just sooo sick of AI prediction content, let's kill it already

#52

Post by iLoveOncall »

agentifysh wrote: post #3

The only prediction that I think is robust is: Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow. Same situation with internet, we saw a bubble but ultimately those that changed their business around it monopolized various industries where they were slow to react. Some jobs will be replaced outright but most will use AI tools and we might see reduced wages/positions available for a very long time…

> The only prediction that I think is robust is: Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow.

And I make the inverse prediction.

I work for a FAANG and I see it, from juniors to senior engineers, the one who use AI generate absolute slop that is unreadable, unmaintainable, and is definitely going to break. They are making themselves not just redundant, but an actual danger to the company.

Re: I am just sooo sick of AI prediction content, let's kill it already

#53

Post by zeroonetwothree »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #16
AuthAuth wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI tools will get easier and easier to use. There will be no skill level required to use them effectively.

The internet was the same. Didnt stop legacy businesses from getting their lunch eaten by internet native companies.

Some businesses survive without using the internet so this isn’t the strongest argument. And even more use it minimally, eg they just have a Yelp page or something.

Re: I am just sooo sick of AI prediction content, let's kill it already

#54

Post by zeroonetwothree »

dinobones wrote: post #24

I’ve felt the same. Also the AGI outcome for software engineers is: A) In 5 years no real improvement, AI bubble pops, most of us are laid off. B) In 5 years near—AGI replaces most software engineers, most of us are laid off. Woohoo. Lose-lose scenario! No matter how you imagine this AI bubble playing out, the musics going to stop eventually.

All bubbles eventually pop. But it doesn’t mean we end up worse off than before.

Re: I am just sooo sick of AI prediction content, let's kill it already

#55

Post by [deleted] »

zeroonetwothree wrote: post #43
nosianu wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Has this been true for any technology, ever? Yes? Try abacus, slide rules or mechanical calculating machines vs electronic calculators. Or ancient vs modern computers and software. They didn't even have "end-users" like we understand them now, every computer user was a specialist. Programming. Writing. Quill vs. ballpen, but also alphabets vs what you had to write before. Photography, more than one big jump in usab…

Are you really claiming that calculators require no skill?

[deleted]

Re: I am just sooo sick of AI prediction content, let's kill it already

#56

Post by eloisant »

risyachka wrote: post #31
agentifysh wrote: post #3

The only prediction that I think is robust is: Those who use AI as tool today will replace those that aren't tomorrow. Same situation with internet, we saw a bubble but ultimately those that changed their business around it monopolized various industries where they were slow to react. Some jobs will be replaced outright but most will use AI tools and we might see reduced wages/positions available for a very long time…

Everyone uses or will use ai, there is no learning curve so this is not an advantage

Yes there is, for coding for example you need to learn how to use the tools efficiently otherwise you'll get garbage... And end up either discarding everything and claiming AI is crap, or push it to prod and have to deal with the garbage code in prod.

Re: I am just sooo sick of AI prediction content, let's kill it already

#57

Post by riazrizvi »

telesilla wrote: post #18
riazrizvi wrote: post #12

This stuff is like the monster in The Blob. The more energy you direct at it, the bigger it gets. So your post, and my comment are just feeding it.

Yeah we need comment-level exclusions; User-Agent: AI-Bot Disallow: /ai-bot/

The equivalent of tossing a cookie at its sticky, gelatinous hide with the words “Don’t Eat Me” written with icing.

Re: I am just sooo sick of AI prediction content, let's kill it already

#58

Post by frde_me »

frde_me wrote: post #45
nosianu wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Has this been true for any technology, ever? Yes? Try abacus, slide rules or mechanical calculating machines vs electronic calculators. Or ancient vs modern computers and software. They didn't even have "end-users" like we understand them now, every computer user was a specialist. Programming. Writing. Quill vs. ballpen, but also alphabets vs what you had to write before. Photography, more than one big jump in usab…

I would argue that for all of these there's still a skill element evolved. If I give an accountant an electronic calculator and a problem to solve, they'll be more efficient than me If I give someone who spent thousands of hours on a computer a task on it, they'll be able to do more than my parents If I give someone that writes a lot a ballpen, their writing will be faster and more legible than someone like me who ba…

Okay what we're saying is slightly different, you mean to reach a certain bar. I kind of agree to that

Through the marginal improvement is still pretty high to knowing how the tools work and how to use them more effectively, in a way that people that spend time with the tools will be _more_ effective

Re: I am just sooo sick of AI prediction content, let's kill it already

#59

Post by nosianu »

frde_me wrote: post #45
nosianu wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Has this been true for any technology, ever? Yes? Try abacus, slide rules or mechanical calculating machines vs electronic calculators. Or ancient vs modern computers and software. They didn't even have "end-users" like we understand them now, every computer user was a specialist. Programming. Writing. Quill vs. ballpen, but also alphabets vs what you had to write before. Photography, more than one big jump in usab…

I would argue that for all of these there's still a skill element evolved. If I give an accountant an electronic calculator and a problem to solve, they'll be more efficient than me If I give someone who spent thousands of hours on a computer a task on it, they'll be able to do more than my parents If I give someone that writes a lot a ballpen, their writing will be faster and more legible than someone like me who ba…

> there's still a skill element evolved.

Uhm... yes???

Obviously even a baby has "skills".

The point is the comparison between the levels of tech. Your accountant is constant, the tools they use is variable.

Interpreting the OPs point as "absolute zero skill" is against HN rules to interpret comments reasonably. You guys are trying to find the most stupid angle possible for the sake of an "argument". I hate this antagonistic debate culture so much.

Re: I am just sooo sick of AI prediction content, let's kill it already

#60

Post by raincole »

nosianu wrote: post #34
frde_me wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has this been true for any technology, ever? In that the curve of skill to output quality will be completely flat? I would be suspicious of this claim.

> Has this been true for any technology, ever? Yes? Try abacus, slide rules or mechanical calculating machines vs electronic calculators. Or ancient vs modern computers and software. They didn't even have "end-users" like we understand them now, every computer user was a specialist. Programming. Writing. Quill vs. ballpen, but also alphabets vs what you had to write before. Photography, more than one big jump in usab…

And all of these still require skills today. Yes, electronic calculators too.
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