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Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

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Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#51

Post by mentalgear »

kick_in_the_dor wrote: post #17
bongodongobob wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol ok. We'll wait for your game changing technology, keep us posted.

OP has a point. Are these type of embeddings the best way to model thought?

Certainly not the best, just the most practical / commercially sell-able. And once a pattern, like LLM text embedding is established as the way to "AGI", it takes years for other more realistic approaches to gain funding again. Gary Marcus wrote about this extensively how legitimate AGI research is actually being put back years due to the LLM superficial AGI hype.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#52

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

pmontra wrote: post #15
Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

Maybe they'll have to tour and meet people in person because videos will be devoid of trust. On the other side we want to believe in something, so we'll believe in the video that will suit our beliefs. It's an interesting struggle.

> Maybe they'll have to tour and meet people in person

That doesn't scale.

During campaign season, they're already running as many rallies as they can. Outside the campaign train, smaller Town Hall events only reach what, a couple hundred people, tops? And at best, they might change the minds of a couple dozen people.

EDIT: It's also worth mentioning that people generally don't seek to have their mind changed. Someone who is planning on voting for one candidate is extremely unlikely to go to a rally for the opposition.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#53

Post by furyofantares »

schnable wrote: post #34

OpenAI is making a wild number of product plays at once, trying to leverage the value of the frontier model, brand value, and massive number of eyeballs they own. Sora is just one of many. Some will fail and maybe some will succeed. It seems true that no company has used frontier models to create a product with business value commensurate with the cost it takes to train and run them. That what OpenAI is trying to do…

> It seems true that no company has used frontier models to create a product with business value commensurate with the cost it takes to train and run them.

Anthropic has said that every model they've trained has been profitable. Just not profitable enough to pay to train the next model.

I bet that's true for OpenAI's LLMs too, or would be if they reduced their free tier limits.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#54

Post by overvale »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

Other people have said this, but I don’t think it’s going to be any different than living in a world where people can spread rumors orally or print lies with a printing press. We’ve been dealing with those challenges for a long time.

Our ways of thinking and our courts understand that you can’t trust what people say and you can’t trust what you read. We’ve internalized that as a society.

Looking back, there seems to have been a brief period of time when you could actually trust photographs and videos. I think in the long run, this period of time will be seen as a historical anomaly, and video will be no more trusted than the printed or spoken word is today.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#55

Post by FloorEgg »

schnable wrote: post #34

OpenAI is making a wild number of product plays at once, trying to leverage the value of the frontier model, brand value, and massive number of eyeballs they own. Sora is just one of many. Some will fail and maybe some will succeed. It seems true that no company has used frontier models to create a product with business value commensurate with the cost it takes to train and run them. That what OpenAI is trying to do…

On some level they know that LLMs alone won't lead to AGI so they have to take a shotgun approach to diversify, and also because integrating some parts of all these paths is more likely to lead to the outcome they want than going all in on one.

Also because they have the funding to do it.

Reminds me a bit of the early Google days, Microsoft, Xerox, etc,

This is just what the teenage stage of the top tech startup/company in an important new category looks like.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#57

Post by kbos87 »

I could see Sora having a significant negative impact on short form video products like TikTok if they don’t quickly and accurately find a way to categorize its use. A steady stream of AI generated video content hurts the value prop of short form video in more than one way… It quickly desensitizes you and takes the surprise out that drives consumption of a lot of content. It also of course leaves you feeling like you can’t trust anything you see.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#58

Post by bonoboTP »

Teever wrote: post #39
bonoboTP wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will adjust. And guess what, before photography, people managed somehow. People gossiped all sorts of stuff, spread malicious runors and you had to guess what's a lie and what's not. The way people dealt with it was witness testimony and physical evidence.

Of course we will adjust. That is a truism that is besides the point. What matters is how many people will suffer during this adjustment period. How many Rwandan genocides will happen because of this technology? How many lynchings or witch burnings?

It's not beside the point.you can lie with words, you can lie with cartoons and drawings and paintings. You can lie with movies.

We will collectively understand that pixels on a screen are like cartoons or Photoshop on steroid.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#59

Post by bonoboTP »

mola wrote: post #40
bonoboTP wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will adjust. And guess what, before photography, people managed somehow. People gossiped all sorts of stuff, spread malicious runors and you had to guess what's a lie and what's not. The way people dealt with it was witness testimony and physical evidence.

Yes, that adjustment could well be monarchy. I can't see how functioning democracy can survive without truth as shared grounds of discussion.

I don't think the US was a monarchy for its first hundred years.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#60

Post by truelson »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

We are having a huge amount of technological change (we haven't even learned how to handle social media as a society yet...). We're experiencing a global loss in trust, and things may fall apart for a bit until our society develops a better immune system to such ills. It is scary.

I think we may revert back to trusting only smaller groups of people, being skeptical of anything outside that group, becoming a bit more tribal. I hope without too many deleterious effects, but a lot could happen.

But humans, as a species, are survivors. And we, with our thinking machines will figure out ultimately how to deal with it all. I just hope the pain of this transition is not catastrophic.

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