> The plan, he writes, is for GitHub to completely move out of its own data centers in 24 months. I find it interesting to compare timelines like this (which is very reasonable and expected for an organization of Github's size) with, for example, how AI 2027 describes the world will look like in October 2027. In the next 24 months, if all these timeslines are to be believed, AI will have cured cancer, agent-5 will be…
Wow, that AI 2027 thing is some real dedicated OpenAI fan fiction.
I mean, the OpenAI stand-in in AI 2027 is mostly not portrayed very positively.
This discrepancy is precisely the reason (or at least one reason) why AI 2027 hypothesizes that all the interesting developments will be happening inside whichever AI lab is in the lead. The kind of AI agent that AI 2027 hypothesizes in that timeframe could do the migration in much less than 24 months, but only if the organization completely changes how it works internally so that everything is driven by the goal of…
You're certainly correct that they couldn't, though I don't feel stating "this is why all the interesting developments will be happening inside AI labs" is a fair review of the AI 2027 paper, as it makes many wide-ranging statements about how AI will impact the military, government, medical research, typical corpo-politics, software engineering, and, of course, AI research. The realization that you're close to making…
The idea in AI 2027 is that, if even one company can realize the benefits of AI that quickly, that's enough to change everything. Partly because of feedback loops where powerful AI is used to accelerate AI capabilities, and partly because we've already seen OpenAI's customer base go from zero to, like, everybody, in the blink of an eye. (This is not an attempt to weigh in on the ongoing controversy about OpenAI's financial sustainability; rather, the point is that we know that it's possible in this kind of scenario for a single company to attain economy-wide market penetration quickly, so that's not necessarily a big barrier to technological adoption.)
This discrepancy is precisely the reason (or at least one reason) why AI 2027 hypothesizes that all the interesting developments will be happening inside whichever AI lab is in the lead. The kind of AI agent that AI 2027 hypothesizes in that timeframe could do the migration in much less than 24 months, but only if the organization completely changes how it works internally so that everything is driven by the goal of…
meanwhile openai is concentrating on making spongebob squarepants police chase videos
How much do you think that meaningfully distracted them from general capabilities-acceleration work? I think not very much, so this doesn't seem like much of an argument.
> The plan, he writes, is for GitHub to completely move out of its own data centers in 24 months. I find it interesting to compare timelines like this (which is very reasonable and expected for an organization of Github's size) with, for example, how AI 2027 describes the world will look like in October 2027. In the next 24 months, if all these timeslines are to be believed, AI will have cured cancer, agent-5 will be…
Wow, that AI 2027 thing is some real dedicated OpenAI fan fiction.
I really dislike it because some of my more doom and gloom-prone friends basically believe it as gospel.
IIRC in the paper itself they back up their reputation using their previous predictions that only had a ~50% success rate.
I also just don’t know why the paper needed to make up narrative stories as predictions instead of being more straightforward.
You're certainly correct that they couldn't, though I don't feel stating "this is why all the interesting developments will be happening inside AI labs" is a fair review of the AI 2027 paper, as it makes many wide-ranging statements about how AI will impact the military, government, medical research, typical corpo-politics, software engineering, and, of course, AI research. The realization that you're close to making…
The idea in AI 2027 is that, if even one company can realize the benefits of AI that quickly, that's enough to change everything. Partly because of feedback loops where powerful AI is used to accelerate AI capabilities, and partly because we've already seen OpenAI's customer base go from zero to, like, everybody, in the blink of an eye. (This is not an attempt to weigh in on the ongoing controversy about OpenAI's fin…
I’ve not read the paper, but it appears to be suffering the same fallacy that AI boosters tend to suffer: the mighty “if.”
Yes, if AI is godlike, then the first company to leverage the machine god will be rewarded.
But it’s not. The “benefits of AI” are a combination of placebo, automation of mediocre work, and few modest points of leverage.
It would be great if Actions received some polish. How are people applying org/team wide policies such as job timeouts to avoid burning through monthly limits? Last I checked this wasn’t a feature :/
You can draft up your own json schema and apply it as a validation check when PRs are created. Or just use a proper programming language for the yaml checks. You can pair that up with a template repository for the org and everyone can start new projects from that template (which contains the workflow to check future workflow files). If you want assistance with organisation-wide code policies, I can help and my email…
Templates and config checks are what I ended up with but it would be nice if this was enforceable out of the box. This was just one example that came to mind where the experience feels rough requiring workarounds https://github.com/orgs/community/discussions/14834 Perhaps it's case of grass being greener elsewhere and my patchy memory but I'm almost missing Jenkins...
> The plan, he writes, is for GitHub to completely move out of its own data centers in 24 months. I find it interesting to compare timelines like this (which is very reasonable and expected for an organization of Github's size) with, for example, how AI 2027 describes the world will look like in October 2027. In the next 24 months, if all these timeslines are to be believed, AI will have cured cancer, agent-5 will be…
We're in the Biff Tannen timeline I'm pretty sure. Things got sketch around 2012.
You're certainly correct that they couldn't, though I don't feel stating "this is why all the interesting developments will be happening inside AI labs" is a fair review of the AI 2027 paper, as it makes many wide-ranging statements about how AI will impact the military, government, medical research, typical corpo-politics, software engineering, and, of course, AI research. The realization that you're close to making…
The idea in AI 2027 is that, if even one company can realize the benefits of AI that quickly, that's enough to change everything. Partly because of feedback loops where powerful AI is used to accelerate AI capabilities, and partly because we've already seen OpenAI's customer base go from zero to, like, everybody, in the blink of an eye. (This is not an attempt to weigh in on the ongoing controversy about OpenAI's fin…
Which companies would, if they alone become radically more effective, actually be able to radically change impact on their industry? The vast majority of companies are in value chains, where practical value creation depends also on the suppliers and customers of the company. Often there are multiple suppliers and customers, and sometimes there are multiple levels of relationships on each side... That places constrains/inefficiencies on how quickly and how much one can achieve.
I hope they are prepared for lots of headaches, random outages, slow (did I say S-L-O-W) tooling and infrastructure, terrible access to GPU's, at least 2-3x more expensive than any other cloud. Support is staffed by overseas Indians who drag every interaction out and just wear you down until you give up.
> Support is staffed by overseas Indians who drag every interaction out and just wear you down until you give up
You really think they, not unlike most top of the crop MSFT partners, get support out of India?