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The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

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Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#51

Post by emilecantin »

infecto wrote: post #21
TrackerFF wrote: post #16

The thing is, the models do work. They add value to me each and every day, to a degree almost no other tech has done before. But that doesn't take away the fact that this is extremely expensive stuff (not for me, but for the companies pushing the envelope), far too expensive. And it is really taking its toll on other resources, like electricity.

I think the thing that most of the folks miss is exactly that. AI is adding value and it’s here to stay. Absolutely the OpenAI story is looking concerning but I am not sure it is this doomsday AI winter.

Both can be true at the same time. Similar to the early days of the Internet, the dot-com bubble eventually popped, but the Internet (and dot-coms, for that matter) didn't go away.

What people are saying is that this mad race to throw cash at anything that has "AI" in it will eventually stop, and what will remain are the useful things.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#52

Post by diggan »

qsort wrote: post #22
diggan wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hope I’m wrong I kind of hope you're right. Any "hyped" industry/sector is bound to eventually needing to get back to reality, and focus on things that actually work, rather than spraying and praying prototypes and over-hyping them. The individuals and companies building real products that actually improve something will stick around, either as they are, or at least as ideas, and most of the interesting stuff ten…

> I kind of hope you're right. I couldn't care less if big tech gets knocked down a peg, but in many quarters the AI boom is what's keeping the lights on. A market correction of that magnitude would mean a lot of pain for a lot of normal people, it's not exactly something I'm cheering on...

As someone who've jumped on previous hype-trains, most of us who get involved with "frontiers" know it's over-hyped, have more realistic perspective of it and are more-or-less ready for what eventually will come.

I'm sure most people heavily invested into AI (energy, money or time-wise) know the consequences of the bet they've done, they're not exactly just trying to earn a living.

If the crash/bubble-pop would have change of impacting actual working class folks outside of the AI bubble, I'd agree with you. But I don't think the bubble is so large, the people impacted will be people who willfully made a risky bet.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#53

Post by infecto »

369548684892826 wrote: post #43
infecto wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the thing that most of the folks miss is exactly that. AI is adding value and it’s here to stay. Absolutely the OpenAI story is looking concerning but I am not sure it is this doomsday AI winter.

If revenue doesn't catch up with the cost of developing and running these huge LLMs then the only way to avoid an AI winter is to find a way to make them way cheaper to develop.

Inference costs are largely break even and profitable. Now yes there is absolutely questions on the training side.

You could turn off the switch today though and most of your leading models could keep the lights on.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#54

Post by EcommerceFlow »

- ChatGPT still lags for me daily and I'm on a PRO subscription. - SORA is usable but extremely slow and constrained. - Image gen same thing, but getting a bit quicker and less constrained.

This is with agents not having taken off yet, and the vast portion of the world economy not interacting with LLM Ai? Agents alone will require ungodly amounts of compute.

Bullish

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#55

Post by techblueberry »

MarcelOlsz wrote: post #33
techblueberry wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You hope the garbage heap surrounding your house burns?

[flagged]

I’m probably more of a Luddite then you, but it would be nice if it would fail without extending into the rest of the economy.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#57

Post by alephnerd »

MarcelOlsz wrote: post #31
fhd2 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're hoping for a full on market crash? I don't mind AI hype companies crashing, would probably low key enjoy it with popcorn. But from what I understand, it's not that localised.

Yeah it will be funny. I couldn't care less. My tea and tobacco will still be just as cheap as it ever was. I'll still be playing my lute on the porch, unaffected.

You realize the startup you are working on would directly be impacted by any sort kf "AI Winter" right?

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#58

Post by SoftTalker »

TrackerFF wrote: post #16

The thing is, the models do work. They add value to me each and every day, to a degree almost no other tech has done before. But that doesn't take away the fact that this is extremely expensive stuff (not for me, but for the companies pushing the envelope), far too expensive. And it is really taking its toll on other resources, like electricity.

But are you paying for them commensurate with the value they create? That's the problem. Tons of money being invested/borrowed on technology with not nearly enough revenue to justify it. Same thing that happened in the late 1990s.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#59

Post by MarcelOlsz »

techblueberry wrote: post #55
MarcelOlsz wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I’m probably more of a Luddite then you, but it would be nice if it would fail without extending into the rest of the economy.

I would out-luddite you any day don't even try me. I'm posting from a beach where I fly a drone overhead to OCR my stick-writing into HN comments.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#60

Post by MarcelOlsz »

alephnerd wrote: post #57
MarcelOlsz wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah it will be funny. I couldn't care less. My tea and tobacco will still be just as cheap as it ever was. I'll still be playing my lute on the porch, unaffected.

You realize the startup you are working on would directly be impacted by any sort kf "AI Winter" right?

My startup is already dead in the water because I built it in an ADHD-fritz and only did it to spite a YC company, and in that regard I succeeded wildly because they threatened to sue me. Haha! I'm working on much cooler shit right now. Sick own though, checking my profile and all that.
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