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Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

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Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#51

Post by timr »

chneu wrote: post #48
timr wrote: post #24

Title is clickbait. This is based on 25+ different models, the AMOC is not the Gulf Stream, the authors admit there’s a great deal of uncertainty, and the confidence intervals extend from 2023 to 2076 for the high emission scenario. Moreover, per the authors: > If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. Better title would be “Simulations of Atlantic Meridonal C…

It's also worth noting that while this is uncertain, it's likely an undercount. Our models are based on what we can measure. We're continually finding that we are under measuring. Chances are that children born today will feel the effects of AMOC collapsing. So this mentality of "omg they're over reacting, we have time" is really dumb. It's very easy to nitpick and dismiss this kind of stuff instead of giving a shit…

You’re putting words in my mouth. I believe that clearly stating the quality of the evidence is what distinguishes science from hysteria. We do no favors to the cause of science by exaggerating.

The contention that our models systematically underestimate reality is incorrect, and defies logic: if it were true that we were systematically failing in one direction, we’d make the models bias in the other direction.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#52

Post by pklausler »

nemo44x wrote: post #35
octaane wrote: post #6

I cannot overemphasize how epochal of a crisis this would be for human civilization - the gulf stream is pretty much the only thing keeping northern europe (The UK, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of germany, the Netherlands, etc) habitable by current standards. Basically, the gulf stream is a conveyor belt that grabs nice warm water from southern latitudes (carribean, southeast atlantic oce…

It's a good thing there's a near 0% chance of it actually happening.

How do you know that?

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#53

Post by tcumulus »

timr wrote: post #24

Title is clickbait. This is based on 25+ different models, the AMOC is not the Gulf Stream, the authors admit there’s a great deal of uncertainty, and the confidence intervals extend from 2023 to 2076 for the high emission scenario. Moreover, per the authors: > If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. Better title would be “Simulations of Atlantic Meridonal C…

My bad, should have indeed used AMOC in the title. Translated the titles of the Flemish and Dutch public broadcasters which used the word "golfstroom" in their titles.

It may take long to significantly weaken, the article also states that effects of a weakening AMOC can occur much sooner than that.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#54

Post by pfdietz »

octaane wrote: post #6

I cannot overemphasize how epochal of a crisis this would be for human civilization - the gulf stream is pretty much the only thing keeping northern europe (The UK, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of germany, the Netherlands, etc) habitable by current standards. Basically, the gulf stream is a conveyor belt that grabs nice warm water from southern latitudes (carribean, southeast atlantic oce…

"The notion that the Gulf Stream is responsible for keeping Europe anomalously warm turns out to be a myth."

https://www.americanscientist.org/article/the-source-of-euro...

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#55

Post by baq »

didibus wrote: post #32
timr wrote: post #24

Title is clickbait. This is based on 25+ different models, the AMOC is not the Gulf Stream, the authors admit there’s a great deal of uncertainty, and the confidence intervals extend from 2023 to 2076 for the high emission scenario. Moreover, per the authors: > If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. Better title would be “Simulations of Atlantic Meridonal C…

Agree, that said, it's still a little worrisome. These simulations are the best we have to predict the future, and even if it's 2076, once it happens, it's going to be a huge deal. Hard to think we should just YOLO and take a gamble models were wrong and all will be fine for centuries more.

Unfortunately the ‘rational’ choice in a competitive game (like today’s world politics) is to double down on exploitation to maximize resources and/or/thus chances of surviving the event instead of minimizing probability of it happening.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#56

Post by baq »

tdb7893 wrote: post #42
justlikereddit wrote: post #37

False vacuum collapse could also happen. But given the quite impressive track record of 100% failed predictions in the climate doom department I'm betting on the false vacuum imploding before the climate memes manifest.

We've already seen sea level rises make some islands unliveable, pretty large ecological damage, and many people dead from natural disasters from climate change and we are still in early stages of it (levels of greenhouse gases in the environment are still still not only rising but also accelerating in the wrong direction). You would need to be incredibly selective to the point of absurdity to say predictions have 10…

Yeah dude hasn’t had an issue where he lives so he claims it’s all lies. When time comes for his neighborhood he’ll cry wolf for not being warned early enough.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#57

Post by rcxdude »

timr wrote: post #51
chneu wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also worth noting that while this is uncertain, it's likely an undercount. Our models are based on what we can measure. We're continually finding that we are under measuring. Chances are that children born today will feel the effects of AMOC collapsing. So this mentality of "omg they're over reacting, we have time" is really dumb. It's very easy to nitpick and dismiss this kind of stuff instead of giving a shit…

You’re putting words in my mouth. I believe that clearly stating the quality of the evidence is what distinguishes science from hysteria. We do no favors to the cause of science by exaggerating. The contention that our models systematically underestimate reality is incorrect, and defies logic: if it were true that we were systematically failing in one direction, we’d make the models bias in the other direction.

>The contention that our models systematically underestimate reality is incorrect, and defies logic: if it were true that we were systematically failing in one direction, we’d make the models bias in the other direction.

It's possible for such biases to persist for a long time: In general, older climate models tended to overestimate the amount of CO2 that would be emitted but underestimate the effects it would have. The latter especially tends to persist because climate scientists are under a lot of pressure to not overstate their claims, given the very well-funded and active work to discredit claims about climate change (as well as a very human desire, given the lack of action, to be optimistic).

(You can also see a similar effect with the growth in adoption of solar power: even the most optimistic sources have and likely still continue to underestimate how much new solar will be installed in the next few years, because it's just growing so mind-bogglingly fast)

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#58

Post by api »

baq wrote: post #38
api wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard some speculation that rapid climate change at that time could be the origin of global flood myths in so many cultures. Imagine you're just minding your own business and a glacial dam breaks. As far as you're concerned, you just experienced a global flood.

Melting so much ice in such a short time without some kind of a dam made of not-ice is physically unimaginable. Water has soooo much heat capacity it'd take hundreds of years unless we're talking about a yellowstone or deccan traps eruption under the south pole or something (haven't done the math, but I'm not sure if it'd be enough).

The water is already liquid. It’s just held back by an ice dam that fails. That’s what I meant by glacial dams.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#59

Post by rcxdude »

timr wrote: post #24

Title is clickbait. This is based on 25+ different models, the AMOC is not the Gulf Stream, the authors admit there’s a great deal of uncertainty, and the confidence intervals extend from 2023 to 2076 for the high emission scenario. Moreover, per the authors: > If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. Better title would be “Simulations of Atlantic Meridonal C…

If the title was clickbait, it'd have gone with 'may have already been reached', given those confidence intervals. The middle of those ranges is well within 'mid-century', and 'may' is a pretty important qualifier. I think it's a pretty good summary. (as for AMOC vs Gulf Stream, the Gulf Stream is a part of the AMOC and the more well-known term for 'the thing that keeps Europe warm', so it's probably the better thing to include in a headline for anyone but specialists).

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#60

Post by nemo44x »

pklausler wrote: post #52
nemo44x wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a good thing there's a near 0% chance of it actually happening.

How do you know that?

All this nonsense is the same as the guys who have predicted 80 of the last 2 recessions. But hey, if you can exaggerate the output your model suggests that was built from faulty assumptions, incomplete data, hubris, and spans decades in time and get people to buy it and continue to fund your project, good for you.
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