51–60 of 86 posts
I think the biggest sign of a potential crash is that Meta has frozen AI hiring. Such a quick reversal from just a few months ago.
There has to be a point of diminishing returns somewhere, and a headline-worthy hiring frenzy should be expected to hit it quickly.
The article claims that: a) AI is a bubble b) It's about to burst This is based on a study that "just 5pc of integrated AI pilots are extracting millions in value, while the vast majority remain stuck with no measurable P&L [profit and loss] impact". I think the conclusions (while possibly true) are not supported here. By comparison, in the stock market in general, just a handful of stocks provide most of the returns…
It's the kind of "AI" I see when I walk by the TVs at Costco and see that every box that used to feature the word "smart" now has "AI" prominently written on it, even though in practice no one knows for sure what it possibly means or does. In this sense - sense of companies slapping "AI" (whatever it means to them) for the sake of having "AI" looks like a bubble/fad/hype.
I have no idea about any possible economical outcomes of that hype declining (for a better term than "bubble" "bursting"), but I'm skeptical it's gonna be anything huge. My whole life I've seen endless examples of companies realizing their "hot topic" marketing strategy stopped working (or never worked at all) and they just pivot for different strategies without any severe impacts. As long, of course, as the company had actually useful product and the issue was merely with the marketing.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Fortunately, there are open-end put options, so the timing doesn't have to be THAT accurate. EDIT: to be precise: I mean open-end turbo put, which have no expiration but a knock-out.
Put options have an expiration. So I'm curious what you mean by "open-end"?
> “When will the internet bubble burst?” the cover story of Barron’s asked on March 20 2000. “That unpleasant popping sound is likely to be heard before the end of this year.” Again—the internet was a bubble, and yet it eventually far surpassed even the frothiest expectations. If you're investing for the short-term, do what you gotta do. The AI bubble will burst and lots of superficial companies will be washed away.…
The problem today is that essentially nobody IPO's anymore so it's basically impossible to own 100 AI companies to ensure you include the next AMZN. NVDA is likely the CSCO of AI companies, but what's the AMZN?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The internet as a platform or network survived, but most of the big players in the bubble went down. Only the veeeeery big ones survived due to enough residual funds and the smaller players that didn't have a big enough claim yet.
Exactly—it's going to be the same this time. That's how bubbles do. What I'm trying to express is that when people say "AI is a bubble," the don't understand that AI will actually survive that bubble, even if many "AI companies" do not.
Discussions:
Tech, chip stock sell-off continues as AI bubble fears mount
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44965187
Is the A.I. Sell-Off the Start of Something Bigger?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44963715
Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
A good sign the bubble is not actually bursting: a mainstream news publication predicting it. [1] It's still 1994. We won't be near the top until the Telegraph publishes an article overly exuberant about AI and saying AGI is here. If every idiot commenting on Reddit, HN, X, and mainstream news publications is pessimistic and constantly shouting "bubble!," then definitionally, we have not reached irrational exuberance…
A good sign the bubble is not actually bursting: a mainstream news publication predicting it. [1] It's still 1994. We won't be near the top until the Telegraph publishes an article overly exuberant about AI and saying AGI is here. If every idiot commenting on Reddit, HN, X, and mainstream news publications is pessimistic and constantly shouting "bubble!," then definitionally, we have not reached irrational exuberance…
Pretty telling how you dismiss what appears to be the majority opinion online just because it’s a majority opinion. Irrational exuberance is defined in the context of market participants. On a wealth adjusted basis commenters online make up a very small % of shareholders in AI related tech stocks. At least on HN many users are engineers meaning they are close to the metal so to speak whereas the people making investm…
Given the tone of your comment, it doesn't sound like reasoning from first-principles logically, but instead reasoning from an emotional feeling and working backwards.
It sounds to be like you're hoping for the AI bubble to burst so you can experience the schadenfreude of the "technically incompetent dumb investors" you despise losing all their money.
Hoping for emotional validation is not a very convincing argument that it is happening right now imo.