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Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

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Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#51
post #6

It's specific model that run for maths. GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 still cannot compute an arbitrary length sum of whole number without a calculator. I have a proceduraly generated benchmark of basic operations, LLMs gets better at it with time, but they cant still solve basic maths or logic problems. BTW I'm open to selling it, my email is on my hn profile.

[deleted]

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#52
Verification is the bottleneck, not ideation. LLMs can generate anything on tap, but solving any non-trivial problem requires iteration between thinking, doing and observing outcomes. The real world is too complex to be simulated by AI or humans. The scientific method works the same way, we are not exempt from having to validate our ideas. But as humans we have better feedback and access to context and we can assume risks on our own. AI has no skin and bears no responsibility.

So the missing ingredient for AI is access to environment for feedback learning. It has little to do with AI architecture or datasets. I think a huge source of such data is our human-LLM chat logs. We act as LLM eyes, hands and feed on the ground. We carry the tacit knowledge and social context. OpenAI reports billions of tasks per day, probably trillions of tokens of interactive language combining human, AI and feedback from the environment. Maybe this is how AI can inch towards learning how to solve real world problems, it is part of the loop of problem solving, and benefits from having this data for training.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#53

I very much disagree. To attempt a proof by contradiction: Let us assume that the author's premise is correct, and LLMs are plenty powerful given the right context. Can an LLM recognize the context deficit and frame the right questions to ask? They can not: LLMs have no ability to understand when to stop and ask for directions. They routinely produce contradictions, fail simple tasks like counting the letters in a wo…

This depends on whether you mean LLMs in the sense of single shot, or LLMs + software built around it. I think a lot of people conflate the two. In our application e use a multi-step check_knowledge_base workflow before and after each LLM request. Pretty much, make a separate LLM request to check the query against the existing context to see if more info is needed, and a second check after generation to see if output…

> Pretty much, make a separate LLM request to check the query against the existing context to see if more info is needed, and a second check after generation to see if output text exceeded it's knowledge base.

They are unreliable at that. They can't reliably judge LLM outputs without access to the environment where those actions are executed and sufficient time to actually get to the outcomes that provide feedback signal.

For example I was working on evaluation for an AI agent. The agent was about 80% correct, and the LLM judge about 80% accurate in assessing the agent. How can we have self correcting AI when it can't reliably self correct? Hence my idea - only the environment outcomes over a sufficient time span can validate work. But that is also expensive and risky.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#54
post #2

Same same human problems. Regardless of their inherent intelligence...humans perform well only when given decent context and clear specifications/data. If you place a brilliant executive into a scenario without meaningful context.... an unfamiliar board meeting where they have no idea of the company’s history, prior strategic discussions, current issues, personel dynamics...expectations..etc etc, they will struggle j…

This comparison may make sense on short-horizon tasks for which there is no possibility of preparation. Given some weeks to prepare, a good human executive will get the context, while today's best AI systems will completely fail to do so.

Today’s AI systems probably won’t excel, but they won’t completely fail either.

Basically give the LLM a computer to do all kinds of stuff against the real world, kick it off with a high level goal like “build a startup”.

The key is to instruct it to manage its own memory in its computer, and when context limit inevitably approaches, programmatically interrupt the LLM loop and instruct it to jot down everything it has for its future self.

It already kinda works today, and I believe AI systems a year from now will excel at this:

https://dwyer.co.za/static/claude-code-is-all-you-need.html

https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-vend-1

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#55
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if it's the desired outcome? Become more human-like (i.e. dumb) to make us feel better about ourselves? NI beats AI again!

> What if it's the desired outcome? To be able to reason about the rules of a game so trivial that it has been solved for ages, so that it can figure out enough strategy to never not bring the game to a draw (if played against one who is playing to not lose), or a win (if played against someone who is leaving the bot an opening to win), as mentioned in [0] and probably a squillion other places? Duh? [0] https://news.…

Speaking of human-level capabilities, it looks like I totally failed to correctly read the section of your comment that I quoted. Shame on me.

However, I'd expect that "Appearing to fail to reason well enough to know how to always fail to lose, and -if the opportunity presents itself- win at one of the simplest games there is." is absolutely not a desired outcome for OpenAI, or any other company that's burning billions of dollars producing LLMs.

If their robot was currently reliably capable of adequate performance at Tic Tac Toe, it absolutely would be exhibiting that behavior.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#56
The bottleneck for automation is verification. With human work, verification was fast(er) because you know where to look with certain assumptions that your upstream tasker would not have made trivial mistakes. For automation, AI needs to verify it's own work, review, and self correct to be able to automate any given work. Where this works, it will also change the abstraction layer compared to what it is today. The problem is same with every automation promise - it needs to work reliably at say 95% or 99% times and when it doesn't, there should be human contingency in terms of what to look for. Considering coding as the first example: it's already underway. AI generates the code, the test cases, and then verifies if the code works as intended. Code has a built in verification layer (both compiler and unit tests). High probablity the other domains move towards something similar too. I would also say the model needs to be intelligent to course correct when the output isn't validated[1].

Verification solves the human in the loop dependency both for AI and human tasks. All the places where we could automate in the past, there were clearly quality checks which ensured the machinery were working as expected. Same thing will be replicated with AI too.

Disclaimer: I have been working on building a universal verifier for AI tasks. The way it works is you give it a set of rules (policy) + AI output (could be human output too) and it outputs a scalar score + clause level citations. So I have been thinking about the problem space and might be over rating this. Would welcome contrarian ideas. (no, it's not llm as a judge)

[1]: Some people may call it environment based learning, but in ML terms i feel it's different. That woudl be another example of sv startups using technical terms to market themselves when they dont do what they say.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#57
post #2

Same same human problems. Regardless of their inherent intelligence...humans perform well only when given decent context and clear specifications/data. If you place a brilliant executive into a scenario without meaningful context.... an unfamiliar board meeting where they have no idea of the company’s history, prior strategic discussions, current issues, personel dynamics...expectations..etc etc, they will struggle j…

An intelligent system would know how to get that information without getting spoon fed it

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#58
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do think that competent humans can solve any arbitrary sum of 2 whole number with a pen, paper and time. LLMs can't do that.

That’s interesting, you added a tool. You did not just leave it to the human alone.

I'm not the fellow you replied to, but I felt like stepping in.

> That’s interesting, you added a tool.

The "tool" in this case, is a memory aid. Because they are computer programs running inside a fairly-ordinary computer, the LLMs have exactly the same sort of tool available to them. I would find a claim that LLMs don't have a free MB or so of RAM to use as scratch space for long addition to be unbelievable.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#59
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not a proof by contradiction - you have stated an assumption followed by a bunch of non-sequitors about what LLMs can and can't do, also known as begging the question. Under the conditions of your assumption (namely that LLMs are plenty powerful with the right context) why would you believe anything in your last paragraph? That's how a proof by contradiction works. (not saying you are wrong, necessarily, but…

I agree it isn't really proof by contradiction. It is more like proof by demonstration of concrete failures in real life demonstrations, which is stronger. It is like the author is saying 12 is a prime number and I am like but I divided it by 2 just the other day.

Nit pick, but proof by contradiction is necessarily stronger as it is deductive reasoning, and this kind of "proof" by anecdotal evidence doesn't rise above abductive reasoning. Still useful, very much not a proof.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#60
post #7

This article is insightful, but I blinked when I saw the headline “Reducing the human bottleneck” used without any apparent irony. At some point we should probably take a step back and ask “Why do we want to solve this problem?” Is a world where AI systems are highly intelligent tools , but humans are needed to manage the high level complexity of the real world… supposed to be a disappointing outcome?

it actually doesn't matter what we want. Because eliminating it will in long run increase yield, economic forces will automate humans away by capitalistic forces.

This is correct. It will require non-market forces to regulate soft-landings for humans. We may see a wave of "job-preserving" legislation in the coming years but these will eventually be washed away in favor of taxing the AI economy.
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