Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT • Hacker News Board

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#51

Post by ulrikrasmussen » Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 2:25 PM UTC

TSiege wrote: post #23

reedf1 wrote: post #9

I think it is possible that the widespread introduction of ChatGPT will cause a brief hiatus on hiring due to the inelasticity of demand. For the sake of argument , imagine that ChatGPT makes your average developer 4x more productive. It will take a while before the expectation becomes that 4x more work is delivered. That 4x more work is scheduled in sprints. That 4x more features are developed. That 4x more projects…

I am not asking this as a gotcha, but a genuine curiosity for you or other people who find AI is helping them in terms of multiples. What is your workflow like? Where do you lean on AI vs not? Is it agentic stuff is tab by cursor? I find AI helpful but no where near a multiplier in my day to day development experience. Converting a csv to json or vis-versa great, but AI writing code for me has been less helpful. Beyo…

I have the same experience as you. It has definitely increased the speed with which I can look up solutions to isolated problems, but for writing code using agents and coming up with designs, the speed is limited by the speed with which I as a human can perform code reviews. If I was surrounded by human 10x developers who wrote all the code for me and left it for me to review it, I doubt my output would be 4x.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#52

Post by eru » Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 2:25 PM UTC

reedf1 wrote: post #27

TSiege wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not asking this as a gotcha, but a genuine curiosity for you or other people who find AI is helping them in terms of multiples. What is your workflow like? Where do you lean on AI vs not? Is it agentic stuff is tab by cursor? I find AI helpful but no where near a multiplier in my day to day development experience. Converting a csv to json or vis-versa great, but AI writing code for me has been less helpful. Beyo…

4x is a number I pulled out of thin air. I'm not sure I even yet believe there is a net positive effect of using AI on productivity. What I am sure about in my own workflow is that is saves me time writing boilerplate code - it is good at this for me . So I would say it has saved me time in the short-term. Now does not writing this boilerplate slow me down long-term? It's possible, I could forget how to do this mysel…

I wouldn't be too worried about the atrophy. Or at least not much more than you already were: you get the same atrophy effect just from IDEs and compiler errors and warnings.

To give a concrete example: I'm pretty good at doing Python coding on a whiteboard, because that's what I practiced for job interviews, and when I first learned Python I used Vim without setting up any Python integration.

I'm pretty terrible at doing Rust on a whiteboard, because I only learned it when I had a decent IDE and later even AI support.

Nevertheless, I don't think I'm a better programmer in Python.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#53

Post by esafak » Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 2:25 PM UTC

bachmeier wrote: post #34

Okay. It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%. It's kind of funny that reliable data analysis has never been part of the AI hype when you consider that AI is used for data analysis.

Teasing that apart is what causal inference is for. Wait for an econometrics paper.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#54

Post by pfisherman » Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 2:25 PM UTC

Could this also be attributed to rising interest rates, a giant tax increase (tariffs), and the highly uncertain - err I mean “dynamic” — operating environment caused by the current administration?

From my viewpoint, companies are in a soft hiring freeze so that they can maintain a cash cushion to deal with volatility.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#55

Post by spookie » Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 2:25 PM UTC

eru wrote: post #38

486sx33 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So basically compressing the pay scale even further …

Well, many people complain about pay inequality. Compressing scales is the opposite of that, so should be welcomed?

the compression is happening only to those still hired, though

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#56

Post by lazide » Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 2:25 PM UTC

ai-christianson wrote: post #26

MajimasEyepatch wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But presumably you could have built it before, just slower, which is the point. For now, that speed-up just looks like a win because it’s novel, but eventually the speed-up will be baked into people’s expectations.

Right, I'm just pointing out that if you're "never going to get there anyway," then going 4x faster isn't going to help.

The biggest issue at most companies is making a lot of heat and noise while not actually delivering effectively, so I expect AI to make this problem worse.

Usually, companies benefit more from slowing down and prioritizing, not ‘going faster’.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#57

Post by heresie-dabord » Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 2:25 PM UTC

bachmeier wrote: post #34

Okay. It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%. It's kind of funny that reliable data analysis has never been part of the AI hype when you consider that AI is used for data analysis.

There are complex economic shifts happening but LLMs ("AI") have little practical to do with it.

Stupendous loads of money have been allocated to a solution looking for a problem to solve.

https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-06-2...

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#58

Post by HDThoreaun » Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 2:26 PM UTC

eru wrote: post #43

bachmeier wrote: post #34

Okay. It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%. It's kind of funny that reliable data analysis has never been part of the AI hype when you consider that AI is used for data analysis.

> It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%. I agree that the former is a strong signal. However the latter doesn't tell you anything without further context: did interest rates go up, because the economy was strong, or did rising interest rates dampen the economy? (It's similar to how you can't tell how hot it is in my apartment, purely from looking…

> did interest rates go up, because the economy was strong, or did rising interest rates dampen the economy?

It doesnt matter. Whether it went from strong -> weak or weak -> weaker is beside the point, the question is if genAI is the main reason for entry level job loss and raising interest rates are another possible answer.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#59

Post by ninetyninenine » Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 2:26 PM UTC

bachmeier wrote: post #34

Okay. It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%. It's kind of funny that reliable data analysis has never been part of the AI hype when you consider that AI is used for data analysis.

Your comment also lacks analysis. This is an observational study there is no way to pinpoint causation.

Yeah it can correlate with the end of a post pandemic hiring boom, and it can correlate with the bank rate. But no matter what it also correlates with the rise of AI.

All are true and causation cannot be established for any of the 3 through just an observational study.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#60

Post by orochimaaru » Mon, Jun 30, 2025, 2:27 PM UTC

bachmeier wrote: post #34

Okay. It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%. It's kind of funny that reliable data analysis has never been part of the AI hype when you consider that AI is used for data analysis.

In the US I think it’s may be driven more by r&d cost amortization changes since 2023. It’s attributed to AI but I believe tax implications are to blame as well apart from interest rates and the covid hiring.