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Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

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Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#51
> We’ve hit the point where asking “Which programming language should I learn?” is almost irrelevant. The real skill now is system design, architecture, DevOps, cloud — the stuff that separated juniors from seniors. That’s what’ll matter.

I’ve never worked in a shop where knowing how to write code is enough. While I’m sure these places exist, from my first software engineering job ~13 years ago to today, distributed systems design and architecture has always been a table stakes skill and specialization in a particular language has been secondary.

I feel like I’m living in a parallel universe. Where all the code only jobs anyway?

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#53
post #34

Why is a post by some rando on Reddit considered quality news, worthy of reaching the front page of HN? This is just comment bait. The discussion is fine, but all I see is anecdotal conjecturing.

You and I clicked on it, and the algorithm did the rest.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#54
I've recently been writing some Nix modules for personal use (mostly flake-parts) and using o3 to help, since o3 is the first OpenAI model I've used that seems good enough for many tasks.

It's useful for answering some questions about Nixpkgs conventions, but it's not much faster than just looking in the manuals or reading the source.

But when it comes to looking at my actual code and answering questions about it, it's extremely hit and miss. It's good at constructing simple functions, but the module code it writes sometimes inappropriately imports idioms from other languages. It hallucinates often.

And it's absolutely worse than useless for debugging Nix module system issues. It gives nonsense answers to questions about infinite recursion issues which manage to be plausible enough to make me waste a lot of time thinking about them, before I learned more details of the module system.

After getting burned for following it down its rabbit holes, I unfortunately find myself ignoring most of its output related to this project, even as I continue to reflexively ask it things. I have often noticed in these cases that it turns out to have been right, but am left still with the empty feeling not that I shouldn't have bothered to figure out my own answer, but that I shouldn't have bothered to ask.

All of that is to say: I think working in a language/ecosystem LLMs are "bad at" is a useful sanity check. The ways that LLMs suck at languages they suck with are instructive because they reiterate the nature of the things. The failure modes are still what you'd expect from a stochastic parrot, even as the models get "smarter".

The massive training data pools for more popular programming ecosystems make it too easy to fool yourself into believing that these things can reason. The unevenness of their performance tells you what hasn't actually "generalized".

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#55

I'm doing a reasonable size project with Claude Code doing almost all of the programming, and it's quite challenging. Vibe coding is easy and fast, but you end up not being an expert in the code base or really having any idea about it. And once it reaches a certain size, the LLM isn't an expert on it either. It is only an expert on cleanly isolated sections of it, which, by the way, it's really bad at producing witho…

I have had a lot of success building small isolated features / projects, but have found Claude to be frustratingly inadequate for any non-trivial work. Ran it on an old and complex C++ codebase, and spent an hour unsuccessfully trying to coax it into fixing a bug. I even helped it by writing a failing test for it by hand. The tools need to improve a ton before software developers can forget how to code.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs are terrible at that in my experience. In what world is refactoring "very local in reasoning"? Switching libraries/frameworks or switching piecemeal to a new language for a codebase that's already well structured seems like it would be noticeably less costly though.

In a situation where the transformations are explicit and can almost be mechanical with little to no involved reasoning. With those requirements, the LLM just has to recognize the patterns and "translate" them to the new pattern. Which is almost exactly what they were designed to do.

Agree with that but it doesn't really fall under the umbrella that I'd use the term "refactoring" for.

Replacing something with something else isn't a refactor to me, a refactor implies a structural change not a wide surface level change.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#58
> We’ve hit the point where asking “Which programming language should I learn?” is almost irrelevant. The real skill now is system design, architecture, DevOps, cloud — the stuff that separated juniors from seniors. That’s what’ll matter.

Those skills require knowing how code works. You can't leapfrog into a senior dev., at least not in most cases. Languages have drastically different features plus the AI agents will not be perfect and you'll need to review code and probably modify some of it. The more you know how to code the easier this will be.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#59
post #18

Yeah maybe. Talk is cheap, show me the code. > Last week, I did something I’ve put off for 10 years. Built a full production-grade desktop app in 1 week. Fully reviewed. Clean code. Launched builds on Launchpad. UI/UX and performance? Better than most market leaders. ONE. WEEK. I really wonder why people who write these things never actually show these apps they vibe coded in a week that are “better than most market…

> Yeah maybe. Talk is cheap, show me the code. Or even just link the app (which the poster is presumably eager to market, right?) as a bare minimum. If LLMs for coding were half as productive at cranking out production quality software unassisted as the astroturfed hype around them suggests we should have seen a large unmistakable wave of better, faster-released software by now just in the output of software companie…

Claude Code has been out for a decent amount of time. How long until we have a completely vibe-coded web browser? Linux replacement? New programming language that solves all our previous problems? Serenity was able to make a decent amount of progress with a small team in a few years, so with a 10x productivity improvement surely we'll see fully polished and complete products in the next year. Surely we'll see FAANG become more productive. Surely we'll see new unicorns come to unseat stagnating giants.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#60
I like LLMs. I really do. But my experience with them is very different from the Chicken Little folks.

Let's park coding to the side for a bit.

Case 1:

I am collaborating with a friend to build a graded Sanskrit reader for beginners using the Aesop's fables.

As a precursor, I asked Gemini 2.5 Pro if it had access to all the stories. Yes, it said. The three popular PD ones? Yes.

I asked it to print all three versions of a particular one, and it did. One of them was not the version it confidently claimed it was. We argued about it for a while. It shut up when I provided actual evidence.

I then decided to upload the three Gutenberg text files and asked it to use them as the source of truth to give me a list of unique stories putting variant plots, variant titles etc under the main heading. I gave it certain formatting requirements so that I could later verify if all 600-odd tales across the three books were properly accounted for.

Gemini tied itself into knots trying to do this. It could not guarantee that all the tales were present in the list it generated. It didn't know how to accomplish the task. Finally, I gave it a series of steps, an algorithm based on an n-branched tree. Only then did it manage to generate the list for me.

This took me four hours of wrangling across three different sessions.

Case 2:

I have been buying TASCHEN editions of impressionists and other classical artists. I wanted Gemini to compare various editions, give me the pros and cons so that I could pick a good edition to buy. By the time we came to Michelangelo it went nuts, hallucinating editions, ISBN numbers, page counts, authoritative urls, worldcat searches ...

This took about two hours.

There are more such amusing anecdotes. Some from DeepSeek as well.

I have tried LLMs with python, and typst and a few other things. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. They definitely do not write code the way I want them to. They will use OOP even if I specifically warn them not to.

LLMs are VERY good at translation and languages. I will give them that. But reasoning? I am not convinced. I will believe that LLMs are good enough to replace programmers when the Amodei siblings can operate their company only using LLM developers.

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