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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#51

Post by electrondood »

partiallypro wrote: post #25
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

I think if Robotaxis take off, then his politics won't matter at all. People aren't going to care what brand of car comes to pick them up as long as they feel safe. I've been bearish on Tesla for years and they always prove me wrong. Robotaxis/Waymos are going to be national thing within the decade. It's just a bet on who survives, the biggest loser will be gig workers, that part I feel confident about.

I disagree. Most rideshares happen in urban areas, where people are liberal. Liberals hate Musk. If you have the choice to take MAGAtaxi or a Waymo, as a liberal that's an obvious choice.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#52

Post by antisthenes »

moralestapia wrote: post #45
WorkerBee28474 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Sure, tell that to Theranos' executives. Oh yeah, you can't, they're in jail.

Theranos never went public, so the quote about markets doesn't apply.

I do agree with the general sentiment, however. If FSD kills a person, many executives, including the top dog, need to go to jail.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#54

Post by turnsout »

RajT88 wrote: post #37
turnsout wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. He's already made his money. Now he's gone full Howard Hughes. "I would like to die on Mars" is a direct quote.

Actions like leveraging the relationship with Trump to get the government to buy a ton of StarLink and Cybertrucks? Him and his companies hold a few billion in crypto, and is possibly one of the major holders of the Trump shitcoin? It appears to be self-dealing for profit to me, the Trump relationship being his path to his next hundred billion dollars in net worth. What does it look like to you?

When he was tight with Trump, it all seemed strategic, but how does it look now? Now that he torpedoed his most important brand and got into a public feud with Trump? People think Elon is playing 4 dimensional chess, but it's actually a 1 dimensional ketamine-fueled daymare.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#55

Post by electrondood »

standardUser wrote: post #39
iw7tdb2kqo9 wrote: post #6

Tesla had more chance to succeed than Waymo. It's impossible for Waymo to match Tesla in real world training and testing data. Somehow Waymo is winning.

Waymo has already lapped Tesla. They sell 250,000 rides per week and rising, for a total well over 10 million. That compares to precisely zero rides sold commercially by Tesla. It's possible Tesla could catch up, but first they need to stop losing ground and develop technology that can actually compete with their leading competitor. Plus, right now the Tesla brand is synonymous with the most obnoxious blowhard in Ame…

Waymo has been "scaling" down the Peninsula from SF for about 18 months now, and it's still not generally available.

Tesla can scale by simply adding vehicles.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#56

Post by [deleted] »

coliveira wrote: post #28
jjcm wrote: post #11

I own two Teslas, and drive between Portland and Seattle about once every 10 days, using FSD nearly the entire way. FSD has gotten amazingly better over the last year, it can and has taken me from driveway to driveway between two cities... when the weather is nice. As soon as there is any weather however, things start to fall apart. It's very clear to me that vision alone wont be the solution to FSD, and is the main…

For someone living in Seattle, a product that requires good weather is close to useless...

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#57

Post by turnsout »

sjsdaiuasgdia wrote: post #42
turnsout wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. He's already made his money. Now he's gone full Howard Hughes. "I would like to die on Mars" is a direct quote.

> I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. Oh totally. That's why when Tesla shareholders sued Tesla over Elon's massive compensation package, Elon said, "I reject the compensation package entirely. Pay me nothing! Actually, I'll pay you to let me work here!"

That whole storyline is about him forcing the board to prove their loyalty—it has nothing to do with the money. He wants fealty.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#58

Post by some-guy »

blindriver wrote: post #41
cowthulhu wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has proven to be very good at lying, moving goalposts, and insisting that this time [x] is right around the corner. I don't know what would be different this time. They might launch it with, like, 5 cars total, or have it be 100% teleoperated, or limit it to side roads. They might require the passenger to sit in the drivers seat and take liability, or push it back a few more months, or only run it at 3AM when t…

Tesla has lost a lot of their lustre this year. Sales plummeting is incontrovertible. Just based on that alone is devastating. But this robotaxi lack of success will not be treated the same anymore.

If the market was actually rational the stock would have tanked already. The small number of people who hold the most stock have every incentive to keep the price high.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#59

Post by Veserv »

kreetx wrote: post #23

Note that electrec.co only ever has negative takes on Tesla.

That is entirely untrue. Fred Lambert was one of the most full-throated supporters of Tesla just a few years ago. He personally referred around 15 million dollars of sales [1] to Tesla. If even Tesla's most fervent supporters now call them liars and dangerous, you should probably listen.

[1] https://electrek.co/2019/01/17/tesla-roadster-free-killed-re...

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#60

Post by Powdering7082 »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

I've been buying Tesla puts at a small scale for the past 6 months, usually puts about a month out.

It's been a great way to lose money so far.

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