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Now might be the best time to learn software development

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Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#51

Upwork is already filling up with people who have vibe-coded their way into a pit and need experienced developers to pull them out.

Really! That could make for some really interesting stories. Fascinating to think of LLMs as a customer acquisition pipeline for developers.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#52
post #45

> and now with far greater reach and speed than ever before I heard that before. Borland Delphi, Microsoft FrontPage, Macromedia Flash and so on. I learned how in 5 years or so, these new technologies would dominate everything. Then I learned that two scenarios exist. One of them is "being replaced by a tool", the other is "being orphaned by a tool". You need to be prepared for both.

Yes, if you built your career on FrontPage you have probably had a bad time. Many such cases.

That said, even if the specific products like Cursor or ChatGPT are not here in 5 years, I am confident we are not going to collectively dismiss the utility of LLMs.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#53

Essentially it’s the same as it always was. Back in the day, Low-code or No-code solutions implemented by non-technical people have always resulted in engineers having to come in behind them to clean up their mess. I’ve had quite the lucrative career doing just that.

Yeah, with current-state AI I foresee more such opportunities.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#54
post #17

"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."

Bravo. This is the exact sentiment I have, but you expressed in a way that I could never have. Most people miss the fact that technical improvements increases the pie in a way that was not possible before. When digital cameras became popular, everybody become a photographer. That only made the world better, and we got soo many more good photographers. Same with YouTube & creativity. And same with coding & LLMs. World…

I would add one thing though. The pie definitely gets bigger - but i feel there is a period of "downsizing" that happens. I think this is becuase of lack of ideas. When you have tool that (say) 10xes your productivity, its not that bosses will have ideas to build 10x the number of things - they will just look to cut costs first (hello lack of imagination and high interest rates).

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#55
post #45

> and now with far greater reach and speed than ever before I heard that before. Borland Delphi, Microsoft FrontPage, Macromedia Flash and so on. I learned how in 5 years or so, these new technologies would dominate everything. Then I learned that two scenarios exist. One of them is "being replaced by a tool", the other is "being orphaned by a tool". You need to be prepared for both.

Yes, if you built your career on FrontPage you have probably had a bad time. Many such cases. That said, even if the specific products like Cursor or ChatGPT are not here in 5 years, I am confident we are not going to collectively dismiss the utility of LLMs.

I can see it being useful for summarization, or creative writing. What makes you so sure that LLMs will be useful _for programming_ in the long run?

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And now the business of wedding / portrait photographer has become hyper-competitive. Now everyone's cousin is an amateur photographer and every phone has an almost acceptable camera built in. It is much more difficult to have a profitable photography business compared to 20 years ago.

That's good to hear. Back when I got married there were some real jerks in the wedding photography business, and they weren't worried about running out of customers. Here's an actual conversation I had with one of them: Me: "I'm getting married on [date] and I'm looking for a photographer." Them, in the voice of Nick Burns: "We're already filling up for next year. Good luck finding a photographer this year." Me: "I j…

In the same breath, those photographers will complain about all the "amateurs" devaluing their services.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#57

Essentially it’s the same as it always was. Back in the day, Low-code or No-code solutions implemented by non-technical people have always resulted in engineers having to come in behind them to clean up their mess. I’ve had quite the lucrative career doing just that.

Yeah, with current-state AI I foresee more such opportunities.

I think I will have good while in security. That is pointing all the mistakes and faults... And telling why something AI came up might not fully solve the problem.

So much room left. As I doubt every developer will double check things every time by asking.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#58
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reported numbers vary but household food waste seems to be fairly high in developed economies, so food demand might be more elastic than intuition would expect.

Perhaps we should say something like "food demand has an elasticity floor."

For sure.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#59
post #35
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're joking but it's true. I'm sure you know that. SQL had similar claims... Declarative, say what you need and the computer will do for you. Also written in English.

Er, have you heard of datalog or Prolog? Declarative programming really does work. SQL was just... Botched.

Yes. And I think SQL is actually pretty good for what it does. My point, as the parent's (I suppose) is that we've heard this "XYZ, which uses natural language, will kill software development" before.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#60
post #17

"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."

Bravo. This is the exact sentiment I have, but you expressed in a way that I could never have. Most people miss the fact that technical improvements increases the pie in a way that was not possible before. When digital cameras became popular, everybody become a photographer. That only made the world better, and we got soo many more good photographers. Same with YouTube & creativity. And same with coding & LLMs. World…

> World will have lots more of apps, and programmers.

This is actually bad for existing programmers though?

Do you not see how this devalues your skills?

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