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The Panic Over Fukushima

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51–60 of 116 posts

Re: The Panic Over Fukushima

#51
"It is remarkable that so much attention has been given to the radioactive release from Fukushima, considering that the direct death and destruction from the tsunami was enormously greater. Perhaps the reason for the focus on the reactor meltdown is that it is a solvable problem; in contrast, there is no plausible way to protect Japan from 50-foot tsunamis."

It's amazing to be able to take such an arrogant attitude. The outrage regarding the Fukushima disaster is exactly that there would have been no fallout if not for several human errors leading up to the disaster -- and the lies and misinformation following the disaster. There is a complete and justified lack of trust in the government and the industry -- and no indication that there will be no further accidents -- whether induced by natural disasters or just poor maintenance.

So yes, over engineering does indeed work -- and is a necessary measure when dealing with potential radioactive fallout -- but even then accidents do happen. I've seen people claim that the fact that human error is behind this and other accidents "proves" that nuclear power is safe -- this is of course rubbish. Human error will always be a big risk factor in any engineering project.

The author also ignores the fact that Japan has done an unprecedented job of mitigating the damage tsunamis can do -- but that the effort had been scaled towards what was assumed to be the likely threat -- a tsunami smaller than the one associated with this earthquake. He implies that this effort was for nothing -- which isn't true. It simply wasn't effective along large parts of the coast as it should (could) have been.

Consciously allowing a potentially huge risk -- the long time destruction of farmland and populated areas by radioactive contamination -- versus not mitigating all possible natural disasters and risks of war -- is a false dichotomy.

The problem with nuclear power isn't that a lot of people might die from cancer -- it's that generations might be affected by a single accident -- and will be burdened with containing spent fuel for longer than human civilization have existed.

Finally, if it turns out that geothermal power is a viable alternative -- then it should be possible to fulfil Japan's energy need without any risk of nuclear fallout.

Re: The Panic Over Fukushima

#52
Lately I've been reevaluating my predictable sci/techy pro-nuclear stance. I still roll my eyes at folks who don't really know what radiation is but think it's inherently bad, and I still think nuclear power is probably a lesser evil than fossil fuels. But two things I learned this week gave me pause:

First, that Fukushima was not as benign as I believed if butterflys are mutating http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/120809/srep00570/full/srep00...

Second, and maybe everyone else knew this, but I never knew that we haven't been able to produce low-background steel since 1945 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-background_steel

And maybe those are both insignificant. But I think they both serve as non-partisan evidence that we can and have semi-permanently altered the planet with each nuclear mistake we've made.

Re: The Panic Over Fukushima

#53

> Looking back more than a year after the event, it is clear that the Fukushima reactor complex, though nowhere close to state-of-the-art, was adequately designed to contain radiation. New reactors can be made even safer, of course, but the bottom line is that Fukushima passed the test. He made a good argument that new cancer cases are statistically few, but I can't see what test Fukushima passed. As far as I know th…

> I can't see what test Fukushima passed

They had a disaster much bigger than was planned for, multiple failures, both human and machine and even so nobody died from it. At worst, some might eventually succumb to cancer someday.

But it's radiation, so people are still more scared of it than the tsunami that killed everyone. I mean, nobody is talking about how to make sure that we're better prepared for the tsuanmis that kill thousands of people and utterly devastate so much land.

Re: The Panic Over Fukushima

#54
post #46

The conclusion of the WSJ was: "The great tragedy of the Fukushima accident is that Japan shut down all its nuclear reactors. Even though officials have now turned two back on, the hardships and economic disruptions induced by this policy will be enormous and will dwarf any danger from the reactors themselves." The conclusion of The Corbett Report was: "Along with the tragic loss of life, the destruction of homes, fa…

I question that conclusion. The power shortages have been quite troubling.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/03/12030...

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ201207...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18468685

Re: The Panic Over Fukushima

#55

Lately I've been reevaluating my predictable sci/techy pro-nuclear stance. I still roll my eyes at folks who don't really know what radiation is but think it's inherently bad, and I still think nuclear power is probably a lesser evil than fossil fuels. But two things I learned this week gave me pause: First, that Fukushima was not as benign as I believed if butterflys are mutating http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/1208…

That first point is referenced in this story, actually. It's about half-way down.

Re: The Panic Over Fukushima

#56
post #6

Maybe I was being ridiculously optimistic, but ~200 projected additional cases of cancer seems pretty bad.

Every energy source kills people, even solar and wind kill people. This guy did a collection of statistics (I think they are each by a different body so they're not directly comparable but should still suffice for orders-of-magnitude.) http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-so...

Re: The Panic Over Fukushima

#57
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Radiation is radiation; its not homeopathic. Radioactive isotopes are one source of radiation, insolation and cosmic background radiation are others. In this case the OP was referring specifically to maximum radiation exposure levels as defined by some big-"I" international organization.

>Radiation is radiation No. It is not. There is alpha, gamma, beta+ and beta-. And there is a huge difference. And how healthy it is strongly depends on the area of you body that is exposed. If Your skin is exposed to alpha radiation it can be as harmless as a sunburn (it's a matter of the dosis). If you get alpha radiator into your bloodstream that's a whole different story at the same dosis.

That still confuses radiation with radio-isotopes which are sources of radiation. If you consumed a highly radioactive isotope you would likely get more radiation not different radiation.

If a single bioloogically consumed radio-isotope molecule put out the same amount of radiation as the annular insolation in Denver, then you would likely get more localized damage from the ionizing radiation at its point of binding. If it were multiple molecules (measured in parts per billion) and they in aggregate summed to the annual insolation in Denver, then its no more dangerous than the annual insolation in Denver.

Alpha particles and energetically ejected electrons and positrons are ionizing radiation just like gamma rays, and its the amount and concentration, not the source, that matters.

Re: The Panic Over Fukushima

#58

Lately I've been reevaluating my predictable sci/techy pro-nuclear stance. I still roll my eyes at folks who don't really know what radiation is but think it's inherently bad, and I still think nuclear power is probably a lesser evil than fossil fuels. But two things I learned this week gave me pause: First, that Fukushima was not as benign as I believed if butterflys are mutating http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/1208…

The low-background steel seems to be a factor of nuclear weapon testing rather than nuclear reactors. Even the most ardent of nuclear power supporters don't argue for detonating more nuclear weapons!

Besides, essentially everything people do at any scale has altered the planet in permanent or semi-permanent ways. It is an issue, but it is not an issue unique to nuclear power.

Re: The Panic Over Fukushima

#59
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Are you serious? BTW, there's a big difference between "background radiation" and ingested radiation (either through air, food, water, etc.) The scientific consensus is that there is no amount of radiation that is safe to ingest. http://www.rrjournal.org/doi/pdf/10.1667/RR2629.1 Do you really want to test your theory?

I'd happily ingest as much plutonium as you would caffeine.

Plutonium-239, the kind used in bombs, is not actually that radioactive, and most of it would go through your system pretty quickly.

Re: The Panic Over Fukushima

#60
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Are you serious? BTW, there's a big difference between "background radiation" and ingested radiation (either through air, food, water, etc.) The scientific consensus is that there is no amount of radiation that is safe to ingest. http://www.rrjournal.org/doi/pdf/10.1667/RR2629.1 Do you really want to test your theory?

I'd happily ingest as much plutonium as you would caffeine.

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