51–60 of 185 posts
S&P 500 is barely down (~9% as of this post) after returning 23% and 24% respectively in 2023 and 2024. I wouldn't call it ugly, as someone who lived through recession.
Agreed, this seemed inevitable. And as a bull, I don't even think we're close to the bottom for the year
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There are no major economic indicators flashing red. High levels of corporate monopolization, high levels of stock buybacks, and low to no wage growth. They've been flashing for so long people don't even recognize them anymore.
Wage growth for lower income percentiles has actually been quite good in recent years IIRC.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There are no major economic indicators flashing red. High levels of corporate monopolization, high levels of stock buybacks, and low to no wage growth. They've been flashing for so long people don't even recognize them anymore.
> and low to no wage growth Huh? There was "low to no wage growth" in the 80's and 90's. We do have wage growth now. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q Wage growth for over 25 no-college earners has been even better. > high levels of stock buybacks There's nothing economically dire, or even weird, about choosing buybacks over dividends in returning profits to shareholders. It just lets shareholders cho…
Put simply, I do not see meaningful and consistent value in the US Economy for the next four to six years. I'm doing research on taking my longs into index funds or positions in other markets that have a diversified economy (and not mostly services/imports, like the USA) and will be steaming away from their dependence on the American market in the following years. If I invest into anything domestic, it'll likely be companies reshoring parts of the supply chain and retracting outsourcing.
Hopefully this isn't a biased take: I think this is a unique situation because the recent moves (in my opinion) are largely a result of everyone's uncertainty around America's policies. In other words, the recent stock moves aren't because we're seeing a bunch of companies fail to miss quarterly targets. There are no major economic indicators flashing red. If stocks can drop that fast in a couple weeks, they can also…
The US is losing innovation talent, guest laborers, export markets, and allies. The federal workforce contributes to the economy, and many federal programs have strongly net positive economic impact. We have threatened to militarily invade 3-4 countries in the last month and publicly betrayed Ukraine. We have instigated trade wars with 3, including our contiguous neighbors who have been remarkably stable friendly for…
Hopefully this isn't a biased take: I think this is a unique situation because the recent moves (in my opinion) are largely a result of everyone's uncertainty around America's policies. In other words, the recent stock moves aren't because we're seeing a bunch of companies fail to miss quarterly targets. There are no major economic indicators flashing red. If stocks can drop that fast in a couple weeks, they can also…
Hah, do you think Trump can admit he messed up and change course?
Hopefully this isn't a biased take: I think this is a unique situation because the recent moves (in my opinion) are largely a result of everyone's uncertainty around America's policies. In other words, the recent stock moves aren't because we're seeing a bunch of companies fail to miss quarterly targets. There are no major economic indicators flashing red. If stocks can drop that fast in a couple weeks, they can also…
just cutting government spending would automatically put the US into recession, deficit spending is the only thing that has kept things going. Huge amount of job growth is either direct government hiring or indirect through businesses hiring off revenue from government contracts
To be fair I think this is long overdue. The fundamentals do not support the price of many stocks. Recently Tesla had more market cap than Toyota and many other established brands combined. No way in hell that is believable.
Tesla is way better positioned than Toyota in likely upcoming EV world, so capitalization is result of future expectations.
https://www.voronoiapp.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn...
"Sadly" I don't really have much cash on the sidelines to buy more equities as prices dip as I generally don't try to time to market / buy the dip: * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-co... I'm not generally 100% equities, often 80/20, so things will be rebalancing on their own at least at least: * https://canadiancouchpotato.com/model-portfolios/ * https://www.finiki.org/wiki/Asset_allocation…
> [...] buying low now would be nice. Just to be clear, the point of the linked article is that you cannot know that now is the LOW and not the new high.
