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Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

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Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#51

Post by cft »

OpenAI will in the end be aquired for less than its current valuation. Initially, I've been paying for Claude (coding), Cursor (coding), OpenAI (general, coding), and then started paying for Claude Code API credits.

Now I canceled OpenAI and Claude general subscriptions, because for general tasks, Grok and DeepSeek more than suffice. General purpose AI will unlikely be subscription-based, unlike the specialized (professional) one. I'm now only paying for Claude Code API credits and still paying for Cursor.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#52

Post by meroes »

moelf wrote: post #39
paxys wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty funny that OpenAI wants to sell access to a "PhD level" model at a price with which you can hire like 3-5 real human PhDs full-time.

$20k can't get you that many PhD. Even PhD students, who's nominal salary is maybe $3-5k a month, effectively costs double that because of school overhead and other stuff.

Based on ubiquitous AI trainer ads on the internet that advertise their pay, they probably make <=$50/hr training these models. Trainers are usually remote and set their own hours, so I wouldn’t be surprised if PhDs are not making much as trainers.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#53

Post by throwaway3572 »

laughingcurve wrote: post #37
paxys wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty funny that OpenAI wants to sell access to a "PhD level" model at a price with which you can hire like 3-5 real human PhDs full-time.

That is just not correct. As someone who has done the budgets for PhD hiring and funding, you are just wildly underestimating the overhead costs, benefits, cost of raising money, etc.

For a STEM PhD, in America, at an R1 University. YMMV

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#54

Post by drumhead »

echelon wrote: post #25
strangescript wrote: post #7

I think they have realized that even if OpenAI is first, it won't last long so really its just compute at scale, which is something they already do themselves.

There is no moat in models (OpenAI). There is a moat in infra (hyperscalers, Azure, CoreWeave). There is a moat in compute platform (Nvidia, Cuda). Maybe there's a moat with good execution and product, but it isn't showing yet. We haven't seen real break out successes. (I don't think you can call ChatGPT a product. It has zero switching cost.)

Is anyone other than Nvdia making money from this particular gold rush?

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#56

Post by 0_____0 »

zombiwoof wrote: post #40
laughingcurve wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is just not correct. As someone who has done the budgets for PhD hiring and funding, you are just wildly underestimating the overhead costs, benefits, cost of raising money, etc.

Respectfully disagree. I had two pHD on a project and spent a total of 120k a year on them.

What region and what field?

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#57

Post by skinnymuch »

Spooky23 wrote: post #12
laluser wrote: post #5

I think they both want a future without each other. OpenAI will eventually want to vertically integrate up towards applications (Microsoft's space) and Microsoft wants to do the opposite in order to have more control over what is prioritized, control costs, etc.

I think OpenAI is toxic. Weird corporate governmance shadiness. The Elon drama, valuations based on claims that seem like the AI version of the Uber for X hype of a decade ago (but exponentially crazier). The list goes on. Microsoft is the IBM of this century. They are conservative, and I think they’re holding back — their copilot for government launch was delayed months for lack of GPUs. They have the money to make…

IBM of this century in a good way?

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#59

Post by zeroonetwothree »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #46
laughingcurve wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is just not correct. As someone who has done the budgets for PhD hiring and funding, you are just wildly underestimating the overhead costs, benefits, cost of raising money, etc.

The "3-5" is certainly overstated, but you definitely can hire ONE PhD for that price, just as you can hire a SWE for $120K or a knowledge worker for $24K. The point is that from a CEO's perspective "replacing all the humans with AI" looks a lot less compelling when the AI costs the same as a human worker or even a significant fraction of a human worker.

Although remember that the cost to the company is more like double the actual salary.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#60

Post by skinnymuch »

cft wrote: post #51

OpenAI will in the end be aquired for less than its current valuation. Initially, I've been paying for Claude (coding), Cursor (coding), OpenAI (general, coding), and then started paying for Claude Code API credits. Now I canceled OpenAI and Claude general subscriptions, because for general tasks, Grok and DeepSeek more than suffice. General purpose AI will unlikely be subscription-based, unlike the specialized (prof…

I have to look at Claude Code. I pay for Cursor right now.
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