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The Job Market Is Frozen

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#51

Post by red-iron-pine »

Havoc wrote: post #45
Spooky23 wrote: post #11

Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year. Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day. Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medic…

NVIDIA has a massive backlog of datacenter orders. Don’t think they’re in any immediate danger of collapse

backlog orders esp ones with long waits, can be cancelled.

if a few other orgs make the same decision that Microsoft did -- no more AI data centers -- then their growth looks shakey

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#52

Post by red-iron-pine »

rightbyte wrote: post #36
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well yeah, but most companies still have a much higher headcount than before the pandemic so those initials layoffs from 2 years ago haven't cut through all the bloat.

It is hard to grasp how Facebook and Google etc. could grow headcount like that. In like five years 2017 to 2022 Google doubled from 100k to 200k.

easy money, and a push to get a lot of things done. easy to vacuum up whoever.

there isn't an unlimited market for talent, but there are still a shit-ton of kids coming out of CMU, MIT, or even online factories like WGU that would kill to be at a FAANG or FAANG-affiliated org.

couple years later find the top 20% and drop the rest.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#53

Post by red-iron-pine »

aurareturn wrote: post #40
whatever1 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the job market, there is a solution, pay more and they will come to you. It's just now it's more difficult to make the case because companies have completely eroded the trust to them, aka you cannot lure one with the prospect of career growth, as you will likely lay them off in 1 to 2 years. Masks have fallen, it's pure barbarism now. Enjoy.

The solution is lower interest rates - for both markets.

nah artificially low rates is how we got here in the first place.

it's like a junkie who is dope sick being desperate for more dope. that eases the pain in the short term but doesn't fix the problem -- real adjustments need to happen.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#54

Post by red-iron-pine »

paulpauper wrote: post #3

Employers too choosy. It's like everything else in the post-2010s economy: you have to be really talented to get ahead'; otherwise you are stuck or unemployed or menial jobs.

they can afford to be. we used to get 1600+ apps in a week -- and that was 2013!

now with AI and a global marketplace -- and remote work being a thing -- the pool is deeper and cheaper.

burn an extra 3+ months and you can find the highly ("highly") skilled worker willing to take 70k to code some new stack. they may be in Croatia or Indonesia, but hey Teams works w/ different timezones...

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#55

Post by betaby »

YZF wrote: post #19
1970-01-01 wrote: post #5

Employers are afraid to take new hires in unprecedented and unpredictable times. It's not going to get better until the daily news becomes boring again.

I think what makes this better is the emergence of new competitive business areas. E.g. AI companies are fighting for talent because they want to grow fast and beat the competition. Established companies sitting on a revenue stream and piles of cash without a good idea of where to go don't need more people. It's companies chasing growth that hire like there's no tomorrow.

> AI companies are fighting for talent

and then there are Montreal AI companies with job listings of 75K CAD ( 52K USD )

Job market is dead in Montreal

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#56

Post by svilen_dobrev »

amai wrote: post #28

Europe is hiring: https://europa.eu/eures/portal/jv-se/home And companies in Europe still embrace home office often even in foreign countries: https://euremotejobs.com/

Not really. Searching "staff software" there yields 4 jobs, and the datadog one is lingering on Linkedin for 3+ months already.

i am scanning since September... in January there was some uptick, but February is going nuts, especially last 2 weeks, nearing zero.

Here some stats of my search (around staff, principal, CTO, tech.lead, ..):

   month: maybe >applied +-interview -rejects ..the rest did not respond
   2024.8:  15 >10 +-1 -3
   2024.9:  35 >15 +-2 -5
   2024.10: 45 >25 +-2 -8
   2024.11: 50 >30 +-6 -6
   2024.12: 60 >25 +-3 -4
   2025.01: 80 >40 +-5 -20
   2025.02: 45 >25 +-0 -8

   ~~where-approximately~~:
   local-local:   5%      where i live
   local-onsite:  25%     elsewhere in same country
   local-remote:  20%
   abroad-onsite: 30%
   abroad-remote: 20%

   ~~source-listing~~:
   linkedin: 40%
   news.ycombinator: 30%
   local-job-boards: 26%
   python.org: 1%

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#58

Post by dumbledoren »

asdff wrote: post #25
dumbledoren wrote: post #23

The article doesn't emphasize the biggest elephant in the room: The zero-interest economy ended and crashed the economy that rode on bloated valuations and stock prices. And now companies are gutting themselves to float the stock prices.

Wasn't that the excuse when they were laying people off two years ago?

It was, it still is and its going to be like that from now on. The shareholders were made get used to ever-growing growth. So being profitable is not enough - the profits must grow every quarter. So this is a self-reinforcing, vicious spiral. They will lay off even more people as the economy contracts. And that contraction is aided by these layoffs. Talk about a snake that eats his tail...

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#59

Post by aurareturn »

red-iron-pine wrote: post #53
aurareturn wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is lower interest rates - for both markets.

nah artificially low rates is how we got here in the first place. it's like a junkie who is dope sick being desperate for more dope. that eases the pain in the short term but doesn't fix the problem -- real adjustments need to happen.

If the goal is to thaw the housing market and job market, then lower interest rates is basically the only lever.

If your goal is to not to have a frozen market in the future, then you can do what you said.

Depends on what goal you want to achieve.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#60

Post by happymellon »

dumbledoren wrote: post #57
happymellon wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IBM hasn't. Apple hasn't. Meta is still up on the month. What are "all stocks"?

And by today they are...

IBM is still up on the month, and the 3 month.

Apple is still up on the month and the 3 month.

Apple may have dropped a bit, and I note that IBM still haven't dropped at all, but Tesla are down 25% on the month and down 15% on the 3 month.

Tesla are still performing far worse than anyone else by a wide margin by being below their previous position.

Unless by everyone crashing you mean up?

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