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Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

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Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#51

Post by CuriousSkeptic »

turnsout wrote: post #29
helsinkiandrew wrote: post #20

Meanwhile: "Apple Says It Will Add 20k Jobs, Spend $500B, Produce AI Servers in US" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-24/apple-say... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43158168

If Apple can pull off "Siri with context," it will completely annihilate Microsoft's first mover advantage. They'll be left with a large investment in a zero-margin commodity (OpenAI).

Apple will not beat Microsoft in any capacity here

Microsoft has all the context in the world just waiting for exploitation: Microsoft Graph data, Teams transcripts and recordings, Office data, Exchange data, Recall data(?), while not context per se even the XBox gaming data

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#52

Post by b112 »

unsupp0rted wrote: post #35
toomuchtodo wrote: post #24

Microsoft CEO Admits That AI Is Generating Basically No Value - https://futurism.com/microsoft-ceo-ai-generating-no-value Bit of a click bait title, but it certainly seems like the realization is setting in that the hype has exceeded near term realistic expectations and some are walking back claims (for whatever reason; honesty, derisking against investor securities suits, poor capital allocation, etc). Nadella appea…

Nadella is looking for the world to grow at 10% due to AI enhancement, like it did during the industrial revolution. That seems like a low bar because it already is- it's just not equally distributed yet. My own productivity has grown far more than 10% thanks to AI, and I don't just mean in terms of dev. It reads my bloodwork results, speeds up my ability to repair a leak in my toilet tank, writes a concise "no I won…

It also gets all of these things wrong, like not paying attention to models of toilets and quirks for their repair, often speaking with an authoritative voice and deceiving you on the validity of its instructions.

All of the things you site are available via search engines, or better handled with expertise so you know how much of the response is nonsense.

Every time I use AI, it's a time waste.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#53

Post by djtango »

qgin wrote: post #22

A few things from the Dwarkesh interview with Satya: * He sees data center leases getting cheaper in near future due to everyone building * He’s investing big in AI, but in every year there needs to be a rough balance between capacity and need for capacity * He doesn’t necessarily believe in fast takeoff AGI (just yet) * Even if there is fast takeoff AGI, he thinks human messiness will slow implementation * It won’t…

> Even if there is fast takeoff AGI, he thinks human messiness will slow implementation

Five years ago during covid all these clunky legacy businesses couldn't figure out a CSV let alone APIs but suddenly with AGI they are going to become tech masters and know how to automate and processize their entire operations?

I found it very amusing that at the turn of the decade "digitalisation" was a buzzword as Amazon was approaching its 25th anniversary.

Meanwhile huge orgs like the NHS run on fax and was crippled by excel row limits. Software made a very slow dent in these old important slow moving orgs. AI might speed up the transition but I don't see it happening overnight. Maybe 5 years if we pretend smartphone adoption is indicative of AGI and humanoid robot rollout

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#54

Post by suraci »

unsupp0rted wrote: post #35
toomuchtodo wrote: post #24

Microsoft CEO Admits That AI Is Generating Basically No Value - https://futurism.com/microsoft-ceo-ai-generating-no-value Bit of a click bait title, but it certainly seems like the realization is setting in that the hype has exceeded near term realistic expectations and some are walking back claims (for whatever reason; honesty, derisking against investor securities suits, poor capital allocation, etc). Nadella appea…

Nadella is looking for the world to grow at 10% due to AI enhancement, like it did during the industrial revolution. That seems like a low bar because it already is- it's just not equally distributed yet. My own productivity has grown far more than 10% thanks to AI, and I don't just mean in terms of dev. It reads my bloodwork results, speeds up my ability to repair a leak in my toilet tank, writes a concise "no I won…

I think the 'grow at 10%' refers to the incremental part of the entire world/market.

during the industrial revolution(steam/electricity/internet), the world was growing, there're trains, cars, netflix

bussiness grown with productivity growing, even so, we lived through 2 world wars and dozens of economic crisis

but now is very different, when you repair the tank with LLM's help, when the labour value of repairers is decreased, there's no addition value are produced

there's a very simple thought experiment abt the result of productivity growing alone:

let's assume robotics become to a extremely high level, everything humen work can be reduced to 1/100 with help of robots, what will happen next?

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#55

Post by _heimdall »

skywhopper wrote: post #42
fny wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He is: this refers to spending Microsoft had planned on its own outside of Stargate. It says so in the article.

In other words “Stargate” is itself a lie: no new spending, just a political repackaging of existing plans.

That's nothing new, politicians lie all the time.

Everyone's response when a politician announcing some supposed massive spending program should be to say "show me the appropriation bill and receipts, then we can talk."

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#56

Post by geuis »

unsupp0rted wrote: post #35
toomuchtodo wrote: post #24

Microsoft CEO Admits That AI Is Generating Basically No Value - https://futurism.com/microsoft-ceo-ai-generating-no-value Bit of a click bait title, but it certainly seems like the realization is setting in that the hype has exceeded near term realistic expectations and some are walking back claims (for whatever reason; honesty, derisking against investor securities suits, poor capital allocation, etc). Nadella appea…

Nadella is looking for the world to grow at 10% due to AI enhancement, like it did during the industrial revolution. That seems like a low bar because it already is- it's just not equally distributed yet. My own productivity has grown far more than 10% thanks to AI, and I don't just mean in terms of dev. It reads my bloodwork results, speeds up my ability to repair a leak in my toilet tank, writes a concise "no I won…

All I hear is anecdotal statements from people claiming LLMs have made them some percent more productive. Yet few actually say how or demonstrate it.

For the last year, I've tried all sorts of models both as hosted services and running locally with llama.cpp or ollama. I've used both the continue.dev vscode extension and cursor more recently.

The results have been frustrating at best. The user interface of the tools is just awful. The output of any models from Deepseek to quen to Claude to whatever other model is mediocre to useless. I literally highlight some code that includes comments about what I need and I even include long explicit descriptions etc in the prompts and it's just unrelated garbage out every time.

The most useful thing has just been ChatGPT when there's something I need to learn about. Rubber ducking basically. It's alright at very simple coding questions or asking about obscure database questions I might have, but beyond that it's useless. Gotta keep the context window short, or it starts going off the rails every single time.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#57

Post by qwertox »

djtango wrote: post #53
qgin wrote: post #22

A few things from the Dwarkesh interview with Satya: * He sees data center leases getting cheaper in near future due to everyone building * He’s investing big in AI, but in every year there needs to be a rough balance between capacity and need for capacity * He doesn’t necessarily believe in fast takeoff AGI (just yet) * Even if there is fast takeoff AGI, he thinks human messiness will slow implementation * It won’t…

> Even if there is fast takeoff AGI, he thinks human messiness will slow implementation Five years ago during covid all these clunky legacy businesses couldn't figure out a CSV let alone APIs but suddenly with AGI they are going to become tech masters and know how to automate and processize their entire operations? I found it very amusing that at the turn of the decade "digitalisation" was a buzzword as Amazon was ap…

> Meanwhile huge orgs like the NHS run on fax

I thought this was a German-only thing?

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#58

Post by suraci »

bognition wrote: post #34
toomuchtodo wrote: post #24

Microsoft CEO Admits That AI Is Generating Basically No Value - https://futurism.com/microsoft-ceo-ai-generating-no-value Bit of a click bait title, but it certainly seems like the realization is setting in that the hype has exceeded near term realistic expectations and some are walking back claims (for whatever reason; honesty, derisking against investor securities suits, poor capital allocation, etc). Nadella appea…

Time to sort NVDA?

it's very dangerous, shorting in a market where a gamma squeeze can occur is extremely dangerous

other markets s like Taiwan are preferable

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#59

Post by unsupp0rted »

b112 wrote: post #52
unsupp0rted wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nadella is looking for the world to grow at 10% due to AI enhancement, like it did during the industrial revolution. That seems like a low bar because it already is- it's just not equally distributed yet. My own productivity has grown far more than 10% thanks to AI, and I don't just mean in terms of dev. It reads my bloodwork results, speeds up my ability to repair a leak in my toilet tank, writes a concise "no I won…

It also gets all of these things wrong, like not paying attention to models of toilets and quirks for their repair, often speaking with an authoritative voice and deceiving you on the validity of its instructions. All of the things you site are available via search engines, or better handled with expertise so you know how much of the response is nonsense. Every time I use AI, it's a time waste.

Every time I contact an enterprise for support, the person I'm talking to gets lots of things wrong too. It takes skepticism on my part and some back and forth to clean up the mess.

On balance AI gets more things wrong than the best humans and fewer things wrong than average humans.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#60

Post by geuis »

bsenftner wrote: post #38
toomuchtodo wrote: post #24

Microsoft CEO Admits That AI Is Generating Basically No Value - https://futurism.com/microsoft-ceo-ai-generating-no-value Bit of a click bait title, but it certainly seems like the realization is setting in that the hype has exceeded near term realistic expectations and some are walking back claims (for whatever reason; honesty, derisking against investor securities suits, poor capital allocation, etc). Nadella appea…

The "elephant in the room" is that AI is good enough, it's revolutionary in fact, but the issue now is the user needs more education to actually realize AI's value. No amount of uber-duper AI can help an immature user population lacking in critical thinking, which in their short shortsightedness seek self destructive pastimes.

It's not "good enough", it's mostly overhyped marketing garbage. LLM models are mostly as good as they're going to get. It's a limitation of the technology. It's impressive at what has been done, but that's it.

It doesn't take billions of dollars and all human knowledge to make a single human level intelligence. Just some hormones and timing. So LLMs are mostly a dead end. AGI is going to come from differenst machine learning paradigms.

This is all mostly hype by and for investors right now.

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