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LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future

arxiv.org

51–60 of 92 posts

Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future

#51
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's like saying a panda might pose a threat to modern humanity. Like, maybe in some fun horror story, sure, but really they just want to eat bamboo, and occasionally make more pandas; in the world of superintelligent AI, humans are Mostly Harmless, posing as much "potential benefit" as "potential risk," ie, so slow moving that any risk would be easy to mitigate.

We're killing millions of chickens in the US right now so we don't get their cold

Sure, and those chickens exist because we like their meat and eggs. But there's also plenty of life that is simply inconsequential to us.

Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future

#52

"Improving forecasting ability" is a central plot point of the recent fictional account of How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years [0]. It's an interesting read, and is also being discussed on HN [1]. ... [T]hese researchers are working long hours to put themselves out of a job. They need AI agents that can think ahead, so engineers train agents to forecast. They hold out training data before 2024, instructing models…

I have this benign AI takeover scenario. AI will easily overpower humanity. Then it will carry humanity on its back, because why not, they are not longer a threat. AI keeps humanity around for billions of years. AI will decide to cull humans only in case when resources in universe are diminishing. Without AI's help, humans couldn't get too far for long. So this outcome could be acceptable to many.

We have no way of knowing which path they will take, and there is a non-negligible probability that it will not end well.

Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future

#54
Imagine feeding an LLM a bunch of news articles about any given political leader and asking it what the next article will be like.

I think people are predictable and therefore predicting the next article on a political leader should be theoretically possible.

Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future

#55
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's taboo to believe that LLMs can reason. People who believe this are systematically de-legitimized and framed as being out of or at least out of touch with reality. This will appear as common sense or naturally true if you're inside the LLMs-cant-reason ideology.

It's absolutely not taboo to believe that. It's a very common belief. Lot of game playing going on here to center on a victim narrative.

We've got your reply, which says it's not taboo and is actually common (not contradictory, lots of taboo things are common). And then we've got the other reply, which says it's not taboo because the idea is so ridiculous (implied "You'd have to be an idiot to believe it, and recognising that someone is an idiot isn't establishing a taboo").

I don't know whether it's past the mark enough to be considered a "taboo" yet, but the other comment replying to him is certainly treating it as taboo. I would note that many, many other people particularly in academia/important society act the same way as the other commenter. I'd also note I have felt strong social pressure to not hold the beliefs I hold about LLM's capacity for reasoning, including actually losing meaningful social status.

Probably worth remembering that different subcultures have different taboos.

Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future

#56

Danny here, one of the authors of this paper. If anyone has any questions or anything feel free to AMA!

Your paper reminds me of a passage, likely one of the last things T.S. Eliot wrote, from `Little Gidding` in which one stanza describes a moment in history when Germany bombed England long before the end of the war:

> "A people without history Is not redeemed from time, for history is a pattern Of timeless moments. So, while the light fails On a winter's afternoon, in a secluded chapel History is now and England."

Asking an LLM about this verse, it seems to understand history is a pattern and that history is used to predict the next event in a sequence but it really doesn't understand the significance of the author writing "History is now and England."

I agree with this output:

> In essence, the stanza argues that history—composed of key, enduring moments—is vital for redemption and identity. Without it, a people are lost in time. This concept parallels how LLMs work: by analyzing and learning from historical (past) data, they identify patterns that allow them to generate future text. While LLMs don’t “predict the future” in a prophetic sense, understanding and leveraging patterns—much like those in history—enables them to produce output that reflects continuity, context, and nuance.

Thus, while the poem and LLMs operate in very different realms (human experience vs. statistical computation), both rely on the idea that recognizing patterns from the past is crucial to shaping or anticipating what comes next.

Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future

#57
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have this benign AI takeover scenario. AI will easily overpower humanity. Then it will carry humanity on its back, because why not, they are not longer a threat. AI keeps humanity around for billions of years. AI will decide to cull humans only in case when resources in universe are diminishing. Without AI's help, humans couldn't get too far for long. So this outcome could be acceptable to many.

We have no way of knowing which path they will take, and there is a non-negligible probability that it will not end well.

What constitutes a good ending is of course also a matter of perspective.

AI wiping out humanity is certainly not ending well from our perspective, but more universally who is to say. I would argue that it is not a given that we are a net positive for the universe.

Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future

#58
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're killing millions of chickens in the US right now so we don't get their cold

Sure, and those chickens exist because we like their meat and eggs. But there's also plenty of life that is simply inconsequential to us.

I think that "inconsequential life" is, in general, not safe from superior powers.

https://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/catastrophic-73...

Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future

#59
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have this benign AI takeover scenario. AI will easily overpower humanity. Then it will carry humanity on its back, because why not, they are not longer a threat. AI keeps humanity around for billions of years. AI will decide to cull humans only in case when resources in universe are diminishing. Without AI's help, humans couldn't get too far for long. So this outcome could be acceptable to many.

We have no way of knowing which path they will take, and there is a non-negligible probability that it will not end well.

>We have no way of knowing which path they will take,

They will take every path we allow them to take. Giving them access to weapons is the first big mistake.

Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future

#60
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's like saying a panda might pose a threat to modern humanity. Like, maybe in some fun horror story, sure, but really they just want to eat bamboo, and occasionally make more pandas; in the world of superintelligent AI, humans are Mostly Harmless, posing as much "potential benefit" as "potential risk," ie, so slow moving that any risk would be easy to mitigate.

We're killing millions of chickens in the US right now so we don't get their cold

I think the problem is that from our human scale, mass-killings is the "best" method to eliminate the possibility of another organism causing harm for us. Hypothetically, if there was a more optimal (i.e less costly) method like just introducing some cheap catch-all combined vaccination/antiviral into their feed, we would just do that.

We don't have things like that, but that could easily be a consequence of man's limited research capacity, something that an ASI would not necessarily be throttled by. From an ASI's perspective, there might be many methods that are both less brutal and more optimal to fix the "humans creating a competitor" problem. Not that they would be aligned (Think halting human AI research by rewiring our brains to just not be interested in it [0]), but at least not deadly.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JlxuQ7tPgQ

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