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Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, I'd like to see some examples where our current AI can actually extrapolate rather than interpolate. Let it invent new things, new drawing styles, new story plots, etc. Maybe _then_ it will impress me.
Here you go: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.11.11.623004v1
> If you believe that AI development is a prime national security advantage, then you absolutely should want even more money poured into AI development, to make it go even faster. This, this is the problem for me with people deep in AI. They think it’s the end all be all for everything. They have the vision of the ‘AI’ they’ve seen in movies in mind, see the current ‘AI’ being used and to them it’s basically almost t…
What is even the possible usage of AI for national security? Generating pictures of kittens riding nuclear weapons to the very end like in Dr Strangelove?
For all that critics of AI dismiss them as lacking imagination, your reaction suggests a lack of imagination.
Off the top of my head: facial recognition and identification to make "smart" guns that hit specific targets with reduced collateral damage (as found on most digital cameras even before smartphones); creating and A/B testing propaganda campaigns; using modified wifi signals as wall-penetrating radar capable of post estimation, heart rate and breathing monitoring[0]; take any self-driving car's AI and conditionally invert the part that says "don't hit pedestrians" when a certain target is spotted; ANPR to track specific vehicles with known owners over long distances; alternative targeting system for cruise missiles in the absence or jamming of GPS systems; using them as red teams in war-game exercises; using them to automate intrusion detection by monitoring for changes to background distributions of basically every measurable event; person-tracking by watching CCTV in secure areas; control systems for security robots (think Boston Dynamics' Spot) that are currently in deployment.
There's likely a lot more, too.
[0] https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content_cvpr_2018/papers/Zhao_...
> If you believe that AI development is a prime national security advantage, then you absolutely should want even more money poured into AI development, to make it go even faster. This, this is the problem for me with people deep in AI. They think it’s the end all be all for everything. They have the vision of the ‘AI’ they’ve seen in movies in mind, see the current ‘AI’ being used and to them it’s basically almost t…
Yes, I'd like to see some examples where our current AI can actually extrapolate rather than interpolate. Let it invent new things, new drawing styles, new story plots, etc. Maybe _then_ it will impress me.
> having 10,000 H100s just means that you can do 625 times more experiments than s1 did I think the ball is very much in their court to demonstrate they actually are using their massive compute in such a productive fashion. My BigTech experience would tend to suggest that frugality went out the window the day the valuation took off, and they are in fact just burning compute for little gain, because why not...
> If you believe that AI development is a prime national security advantage, then you absolutely should want even more money poured into AI development, to make it go even faster. This, this is the problem for me with people deep in AI. They think it’s the end all be all for everything. They have the vision of the ‘AI’ they’ve seen in movies in mind, see the current ‘AI’ being used and to them it’s basically almost t…
Also the narrative that we are currently on the brink of Ai explosion and this random paper shows it has been the same tired old story handed out by ai hawks for years now. Like yes, I agree with the general idea that more compute means more progress for humans and perhaps having a more responsive user interface through some kind of ai type technology would be good. But I don’t see why that will turn into Data from S…
"Is Data genuinely sentient or is he just a machine with this impression" was a repeated plot point in TNG.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Measure_of_a_Man_(Star_Tre...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Offspring_(Star_Trek:_The_...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ensigns_of_Command
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Schizoid_Man_(Star_Trek:_T...
Similar with The Doctor on VOY.
Even then, what we have with LLMs is basically already at the level of the ship's main computer as it was written in TNG/DS9/VOY.
But what counts as personhood? No idea. We're as ignorant as of that as the writers of the TV show; humanity's best attempts at philosophy of mind are still making the same kinds of arguments today as we were a century ago, the only real shift is to be slightly more inclusive of other species besides Homo Sapiens, and the only real improvement over two centuries ago is to include all of Homo Sapiens.
> If you believe that AI development is a prime national security advantage, then you absolutely should want even more money poured into AI development, to make it go even faster. This, this is the problem for me with people deep in AI. They think it’s the end all be all for everything. They have the vision of the ‘AI’ they’ve seen in movies in mind, see the current ‘AI’ being used and to them it’s basically almost t…
I couldn't agree more. If we're not talking about cyber war exclusively, such as finding and exploiting vulnerabilities, for the time being national security will still be based on traditional army. Just a few weeks ago, italy announced a 16bln€ plan to buy >1000 rheinmetall ifv vehicles. That alone would make italy's army one of the most equipped in Europe. I can't imagine what would happen with a 500$bln investment…
So target practice for a beyond-the-horizon missile system launched ground-to-ground or air-to-ground? As an attacking force, conventional ground forces and tactics are a non-runner in a modern theatre of operations when faced against air and drone support. This is why no single EU country is incentivised into dumping money into any single area - as the only probable defense would be against USA/Russia/China to begin with.
The US proved it beyond doubt in Afghanistan - partisans simply haven't a chance against a gunship with IR or NV optics; the last time they levelled the playing field against air interdictors was in Charlie Wilson's Afghanistan when the Mujahideen took on that era of Soviet gunships with hand-held AA systems.
> If you believe that AI development is a prime national security advantage, then you absolutely should want even more money poured into AI development, to make it go even faster. This, this is the problem for me with people deep in AI. They think it’s the end all be all for everything. They have the vision of the ‘AI’ they’ve seen in movies in mind, see the current ‘AI’ being used and to them it’s basically almost t…
> They think it’s the end all be all for everything. Is (human-based) general intelligence not one of the fundamental enabling elements of literally every human activity throughout history, regardless of how many layers of automation and technology one has to peel back to get to it? Can you maybe imagine how the ability to create arbitrary amounts of general intelligence, completely divorced from the normal lengthy b…
> Do you have any evidence to support this conclusion? And does it even matter? If "fake intellect" can replace a human, that human still has to deal with the very real issue or not having a job anymore. If "fake intellect" is used to conduct mass surveillance, and direct suppression activities towards divergent individuals, those individuals are still going to have a bad time.
I think the "fake intelligence can replace a human" needs more support in general. We know how human intellect works practically (not theoretically) and we know how to apply it in different scenarios. We're still far from knowing how "fake intelligence" works and how to apply it to different scenarios.
> If you believe that AI development is a prime national security advantage, then you absolutely should want even more money poured into AI development, to make it go even faster. This, this is the problem for me with people deep in AI. They think it’s the end all be all for everything. They have the vision of the ‘AI’ they’ve seen in movies in mind, see the current ‘AI’ being used and to them it’s basically almost t…
This is ai and trend lines point to an intelligence that matches or barely exceeds human intellect in the future.
You’re part of a trend of people in denial. When LLMs first came out there were hordes of people on HN claiming it was just a stochastic parrot and LLMs displayed zero intellectual ability. It is now abundantly clear that this not true.
We don’t fully understand LLMs. That’s why gains like COT are just black box adjustments that come from changing external configurations. We have no way to read the contents of the black box and make adjustments off of it. Yet idiots like you can make such vast and hard claims when nobody really fully understands these things. You’re delusional.
I agree that LLMs won’t allow us to make some super weapon to give us some edge in national security.