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On DeepSeek and export controls

darioamodei.com

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Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#51

Post by Kostchei »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #30
suraci wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a choice between the lesser of two evils, or what could be called "drinking poison to quench thirst." Export controls might lead China to develop its own advanced chips, but without them, China will certainly gain powerful AI capabilities

Point being, they will gain those capabilities either way. The only question is whether we in the US choose to hamstring ourselves with bureaucracy while we watch them do it.

reminds me of every other tariff based failure in the past...

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#52

Post by HeadInTheClouds »

slaw wrote: post #38
rcarmo wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The civilizational alternative is Europe. The economic alternative, that we can debate...

Europe, especially UK, France and Germany degraded so much it is no longer any alternative.

With respect this is a fairly daft comment

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#53

Post by rcarmo »

Kostchei wrote: post #39
rcarmo wrote: post #25

I like a lot of what Dario writes, but in this case I just can't follow the reasoning. Everything I've picked up about how DeepSeek did what they did (including going a level lower than CUDA to better take advantage of the limited hardware[1], and the balance of techniques used[2]) points to some very smart Chinese engineers having out-smarted US ones (to put it in terms that matter to US folk, because I'm European a…

yeh. I see Dario saying "let's protect the US more" for no reason other than bias and "of course they improved over time" which feels like a mighty strong strain of copium. Very disappointing for a leader of an organization i respected. Assuming he speaks for Anthropic, and it seems he does, Past tense.

The "good" news is that neither Anthropic nor OpenAI are based in Europe, so I don't have to feel like they're burning my taxpayer money.

The "bad" news is that so far I've yet to see a serious contender emerging from that part of the world (although the Middle East has invested heavily in LLMs due to obvious cultural differences).

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#55

Post by highfrequency »

rcarmo wrote: post #45
highfrequency wrote: post #36

The technical summary is excellent. But I worry that prominent US voices couching AI progress in Cold War style war rhetoric is likely to be... self-fulfilling. Surely some of the people paying closest attention to these articles are Chinese politicians and military leaders - it would definitely seem alarming to me if the Deepseek CEO kept writing things like: "whoever reaches this threshold of AI intelligence first…

If you read enough history books (and have a passable grasp of German, and tolerate the weird lead types used in the press for those days) you will be able to find _a lot_ of opinion pieces from our recent history that play along the same lines, but for earlier industries (like automotive). People _really_ ought to study more of our past.

Links and book recs are great - sounds like a helpful perspective

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#57

Post by Kostchei »

tuyguntn wrote: post #24

I call this capitalism when its convenient for us, socialism when we are struggling. I hope one day, China starts blocking advanced tech from US, for the good of the whole world

I hope they learn from the terrible job of stewardship of tech the west has done and don't repeat our mistakes.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#58

Post by sitkack »

dark_glass wrote: post #48
throwaway_32u10 wrote: post #20

I'm kind of tired of the entire narrative that "US good, everyone else bad", as if only US deserves to hold powerful technology because it will be used for "the greater good", rather than employ it in military applications, as if Anthropic didn't partner with Palantir. And it amazes me how many people can't seem to see past the "US is good, everyone else are bad" smoke mirror.

I live here, so I want it to be the best.

In a zero sum game kinda way, the game that America understands.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#59

Post by krapp »

StefanBatory wrote: post #27
throwaway_32u10 wrote: post #20

I'm kind of tired of the entire narrative that "US good, everyone else bad", as if only US deserves to hold powerful technology because it will be used for "the greater good", rather than employ it in military applications, as if Anthropic didn't partner with Palantir. And it amazes me how many people can't seem to see past the "US is good, everyone else are bad" smoke mirror.

I mean, in the end, USA is still better than the alternative.

I don't know. Living in a country where being able to shoot people is an absolute, immutable, inalienable right granted by God himself (more so than anything else in the Bill of Rights) but where access to food, shelter, healthcare and education are all expensive privileges subject to the whims of the free market, and where half of the population doesn't even believe viruses are real, and where you don't even need the popular vote to elect a President (it's just nice to have) because the electoral system is a series of 18th century compromises to keep slavers happy... doesn't seem like the best of all possible worlds to me.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#60

Post by rcarmo »

slaw wrote: post #38
rcarmo wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The civilizational alternative is Europe. The economic alternative, that we can debate...

Europe, especially UK, France and Germany degraded so much it is no longer any alternative.

Economically, perhaps. Brexit certainly didn't help Europe as a whole, and German, French and Italian politics have been off-kilter for years, but it's still, by and large, an ethical and civilized place to live in.

I will freely grant that Euro money goes to completely obsolete heavy industries and luxury items rather than technology innovation (and blame all politicians for missing out on technology), but there are outliers like ASML that almost make up for the whole thing...

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