Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback? • Hacker News Board

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback?

#51

Post by leviliebvin » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 12:25 PM UTC

loa_in_ wrote: post #44

leviliebvin wrote: post #38

I think he makes a good point about immigration. Immigration is not going to save Germany, because Germany is not an attractive destination. The only people who move to Germany are the ones who failed to get a VISA from an English speaking country, and even those will leave as soon as they gain enough experience to reapply for a VISA. The only way forward is for Germany to really invest in its own population and to r…

Even a failed project generates high profile jobs for the duration. Which still could be years. As I understand it, the government isn't lacking profit, just opportunities for people.

The problem is there are no good long term prospects.

For example, you might get a job at a research institute or at government funded startup and gain experience working with cutting edge technologies. The pay is mid, but you don't care because you are gaining experience. Then your contract ends. The private sector cannot make use of your experience. So you have to pivot to programming CRUD webapps or you emigrate, or you get another public sector contract with the corresponding public sector salary.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback?

#52

Post by PinguTS » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 12:27 PM UTC

ReptileMan wrote: post #9

anonymousDan wrote: post #2

Wow, given his attitudes to unemployed immigrants I can't imagine he'll have much sympathy for the people whose jobs the robots will replace. Nonetheless good article, I think he is right that it is an opportunity for Germany.

The good thing about general purpose robots is that solves the aging population issue without having to resort to migration.

It's said easy. A look to Japan may help. Japan is one of the oldest societies in the developed world. Japan neglects immigration and has strict rules. Does it help the society?

That said, Japan has very different work culture than all other developed nations. But still.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback?

#53

Post by leviliebvin » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 12:33 PM UTC

ChemSpider wrote: post #43

leviliebvin wrote: post #38

I think he makes a good point about immigration. Immigration is not going to save Germany, because Germany is not an attractive destination. The only people who move to Germany are the ones who failed to get a VISA from an English speaking country, and even those will leave as soon as they gain enough experience to reapply for a VISA. The only way forward is for Germany to really invest in its own population and to r…

I disagree. The main downside of moving to Germany - or any other EU country except Ireland - is the need to learn German (or French etc) if you want to fully participate in daily life. Other than that, the quality of life is better compared to USA. Example: EU Bluecard better than H1B and Greencard, health care, public safety, public transportation, walkable cities,... even now, I would recommend Berlin over San Fra…

I know where you are coming from, but I want to point out that this is not the typical skilled immigrant experience.

I have met a couple of Americans with 10+YOE who have been imported to Germany with competitive salaries, like 150k€/year. They live in Berlin or Munich, are already partnered up, have a nice nest egg from their years working in the US, and just enjoy being expats on a little adventure.

This is not the typical skilled immigrant experience. If you start with 0YOE in Germany, it's much harder to go anywhere in life. And when you don't already have a well populated nest egg, you start getting anxious about your inability to accumulate savings. And a lot of jobs are unfortunately not in Berlin or Munich. A lot of these skilled immigrants end up in some 20,000 pop town, 1hr away from the nearest mid sized city. And then, if they come from non-western countries and they do not look European enough, that also adds something to the experience.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback?

#54

Post by lifestyleguru » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 12:36 PM UTC

PinguTS wrote: post #50

lifestyleguru wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like poor fighting each other with batons in the mud. The "German rich" fiscally are residents of Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, with some Dutch and Swiss plot twists. No rich has been bred from German fiscal reality in the recent decades.

SAP, Samwer brothers and many people related to Rocket Internet, Frank Thelen and his buddies, Philip (PIP) Klöckner, … q.e.d.

Samwer brothers without their parents would end up writing PHP in Bucarest. While I appreciate and enjoy Zalando, they'd never succeed as three guys coming to Germany from abroad and launching a business. Wirecard looked fishy in this regards... and indeed it was fishy. The secret sauce as a foreigner and someone not born with silver spoon is capital and resources of Russian intelligence.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback?

#55

Post by PinguTS » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 12:37 PM UTC

mertbio wrote: post #12

kleiba wrote: post #8

The right-wing narrative scattered throughout this article is irritating. It's also a bit laughable that Germany could stand a realistic chance to top the world's intelligent robot production - as long as we're talking about general-purpose and hence likely humanoid robots. As far as I'm aware, Germany has no history in building such robots while companies from other countries, both Asian and US, have a big head-star…

> Germany has no history in building such robots Germany was leading in the industrial robots with KUKA until they sold the company to China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KUKA

Germany had many industrial robotics companies. Not only KUKA, like Japan has.

The idea behind selling KUKA is, the very same narrative like in any startup. The robot itself has become a commodity. It was clear, that China will be cheaper in production of this commodity in the long term. The know-how is not in the production of such robots. The idea was to pivot more into integration. But that is very capital intensive. As big company you are limited in the possibilities to raise money. An alternative is to have a bigger company with big pockets to cooperate with or even selling the business and stay somehow as an independent business unit. I have seen this with small companies who needed to raise money. I have seen this with big companies.

BTW, one of the people involved in pivoting was one who in the 1980/1990 made the automation for the KUKA robots as a small engineering office. About a fews years late he got bought by KUKA when they discovered that this small engineering office had the whole knowledge and there was almost no knowledge within KUKA.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback?

#56

Post by lnsru » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 12:39 PM UTC

kmmlng wrote: post #47

lnsru wrote: post #30

There will be no all-purpose robots in Germany. Lilium and Volocopter stories (both VTOL aircraft startups who run out of money) show how innovation works in Germany. Getting early stage hardware startup funded in Germany is absolutely mission impossible. Where the company in US would be raising series B round… the same company in Germany would get 50000€ from couple angel investors for 30% shares. Another source of…

It is true that Germany (and Europe as a whole) suffers from a less than ideal investment and innovation landscape. The companies you mentioned, however, worked on products that barely make any sense. It is clear that those kinds of companies will not (and should not) survive outside of 0% interest paradigms.

I think, other countries would help these companies pivoting to defense/military applications. Munich in Germany is basically stuck during rush hour. Flying ambulance or cop car sounds good to me. And such application would be with high probability successful export product.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback?

#57

Post by heisenberg1 » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 12:40 PM UTC

PinguTS wrote: post #50

lifestyleguru wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like poor fighting each other with batons in the mud. The "German rich" fiscally are residents of Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, with some Dutch and Swiss plot twists. No rich has been bred from German fiscal reality in the recent decades.

SAP, Samwer brothers and many people related to Rocket Internet, Frank Thelen and his buddies, Philip (PIP) Klöckner, … q.e.d.

Wouldn't consider Frank Thelen rich in the sense it is relevant to AI. You need someone with billions and so on. SAP founders for sure. Anyway agree, Germany has quite a few rich people. Although most of them are a bit under the radar or doing virtue signaling. None of them is willing to take huge risks and invest few billions in a robotic company - just don't see it.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback?

#58

Post by PinguTS » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 12:40 PM UTC

lifestyleguru wrote: post #54

PinguTS wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SAP, Samwer brothers and many people related to Rocket Internet, Frank Thelen and his buddies, Philip (PIP) Klöckner, … q.e.d.

Samwer brothers without their parents would end up writing PHP in Bucarest. While I appreciate and enjoy Zalando, they'd never succeed as three guys coming to Germany from abroad and launching a business. Wirecard looked fishy in this regards... and indeed it was fishy. The secret sauce as a foreigner and someone not born with silver spoon is capital and resources of Russian intelligence.

You could argue the same with Elon Musk. Just remember he was a given by his Fathers mining business in South Africa. He was doing imposter with Zip2. But he got in early with Peter Thiel and then finally became the Paypal mafia.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback?

#59

Post by heisenberg1 » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 12:42 PM UTC

lifestyleguru wrote: post #54

PinguTS wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SAP, Samwer brothers and many people related to Rocket Internet, Frank Thelen and his buddies, Philip (PIP) Klöckner, … q.e.d.

Samwer brothers without their parents would end up writing PHP in Bucarest. While I appreciate and enjoy Zalando, they'd never succeed as three guys coming to Germany from abroad and launching a business. Wirecard looked fishy in this regards... and indeed it was fishy. The secret sauce as a foreigner and someone not born with silver spoon is capital and resources of Russian intelligence.

Who cares how they made it? Guess this is the German attitude, they got lucky because of their parents. So lets punish them ; )

Anyway there is enough capital and enough rich people to found a company like open AI. Obviously Germany can afford to spend billions on other things...

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber – Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback?

#60

Post by ChemSpider » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 1:14 PM UTC

leviliebvin wrote: post #53

ChemSpider wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. The main downside of moving to Germany - or any other EU country except Ireland - is the need to learn German (or French etc) if you want to fully participate in daily life. Other than that, the quality of life is better compared to USA. Example: EU Bluecard better than H1B and Greencard, health care, public safety, public transportation, walkable cities,... even now, I would recommend Berlin over San Fra…

I know where you are coming from, but I want to point out that this is not the typical skilled immigrant experience. I have met a couple of Americans with 10+YOE who have been imported to Germany with competitive salaries, like 150k€/year. They live in Berlin or Munich, are already partnered up, have a nice nest egg from their years working in the US, and just enjoy being expats on a little adventure. This is not the…

Honest question: What major German company is in a 20,000 pop town in the middle of nowhere?

And if so, would that mean life in such a town is worse than in a comparable small town somewhere in the middle of the US?

Indeed, salaries are better in the US, especially AI jobs salaries.

But you also need less savings in the EU due to a much better social security system, e. g. free healthcare in case you get unemployed, free university (that alone saves you > 100K US$/kid),...