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Unemployed office workers are having a harder time finding new jobs

wsj.com

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Re: Unemployed office workers are having a harder time finding new jobs

#51

Post by aurareturn »

kmac_ wrote: post #50
csomar wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's going to blow up given the number of broken libraries and products out there. Management does not care until things really break. In 3-4 years, there will be a serious shortage of software developers and maintenance of the stack will be as expensive as ever.

This, plus in several years we will observe many MVPs generated (partially) by LLMs that will require fixing and further development. LLMs barely produce 1k lines of coherent code, riddled with bugs. Benchmarks are improving, but there is no breakthrough in handling real, large codebases. I have no idea about the future job market, but the quality of the "material" we work with will be quite poor.

I don't think these companies are generating MVPs using LLMs. They're just using LLMs to assist in coding. A human reviewers is there. And in a few years, LLMs might be so good that they can fix mistakes by 2024 LLMs.

Re: Unemployed office workers are having a harder time finding new jobs

#52

Post by orwin »

nrr wrote: post #36
likeabatterycar wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Georgia HB 87 (2011) and its unintended consequences say otherwise. While the H-2A is indeed popular, there are still a staggering number of people working these jobs who are here illegally. https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/05/17/the-law-of-... https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2011/05/27/136718112... https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/06/georgia... https://www.politico.com/story/2011/0…

Indeed, in my country, and despite scaremongering about boats, 95% of illegal immigrants are illegals because of visa overstay, and I'd bet the US numbers are around that.

Re: Unemployed office workers are having a harder time finding new jobs

#53

Post by kmac_ »

aurareturn wrote: post #51
kmac_ wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This, plus in several years we will observe many MVPs generated (partially) by LLMs that will require fixing and further development. LLMs barely produce 1k lines of coherent code, riddled with bugs. Benchmarks are improving, but there is no breakthrough in handling real, large codebases. I have no idea about the future job market, but the quality of the "material" we work with will be quite poor.

I don't think these companies are generating MVPs using LLMs. They're just using LLMs to assist in coding. A human reviewers is there. And in a few years, LLMs might be so good that they can fix mistakes by 2024 LLMs.

To clarify, LLMs will lower the entry barrier for non-programmers to test new ideas (which is good). Later, those successful projects will require development by professional developers. I suspect that many of these projects will have lower quality than regular proof-of-concept projects today.

Re: Unemployed office workers are having a harder time finding new jobs

#54

Post by Yeul »

nicbou wrote: post #44
IntelMiner wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a lack of dirt cheap highly educated labor. It dovetails nicely into their desire to slash education for Americans Once we deport all the "illegal" immigrants, the MAGA folk can pick fruit in Florida while the H1B's work at Amazon for pennies on the dollar I suppose

The same labour shortage was all over the news in Germany. Meanwhile people were mocking the salaries and conditions offered by those industries. Immigration is only means to acquire labour at below market rate.

Well there two reasons here in the Netherlands.

Some jobs are unworthy for Dutch people. Your Dutch nationality protects you from slavery. For this there are immigrants.

The second reason is that we have a lot of people doing bullshit jobs in climate controlled offices but nobody wants to do physical labour.

Re: Unemployed office workers are having a harder time finding new jobs

#55

Post by whatever1 »

There is much more noise in the market.

Positions that we typically could close in 1-3 months now take 3-6 if we do not lower our hiring bar.

We literally are using the same interview playbook as we did in the past. For some reason, the candidates in the pipeline have huge variance.

It seems that a lot of people pivoted their career in Covid leading to this mess.

Re: Unemployed office workers are having a harder time finding new jobs

#56

Post by okwhateverdude »

kmac_ wrote: post #53
aurareturn wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think these companies are generating MVPs using LLMs. They're just using LLMs to assist in coding. A human reviewers is there. And in a few years, LLMs might be so good that they can fix mistakes by 2024 LLMs.

To clarify, LLMs will lower the entry barrier for non-programmers to test new ideas (which is good). Later, those successful projects will require development by professional developers. I suspect that many of these projects will have lower quality than regular proof-of-concept projects today.

>I suspect that many of these projects will have lower quality than regular proof-of-concept projects today.

Exactly. It will be way worse than a hacky PoC because you might able to reason about the structure or logic based on the human author and their intent which is impossible in the case of an LLM author. Further, assuming the human author isn't hit by a bus or whatever, you can query them directly if anything is unclear. Good fuckin luck asking an LLM for a reason why it did something in the PoC.

Re: Unemployed office workers are having a harder time finding new jobs

#57

Post by afpx »

uptownfunk wrote: post #16

My observations for the last two years: Employers are hyper hyper selective There are a lot a lot of fake job postings The bar has gone way way up It is in general very difficult and gruelling to get a job If engineering roles are hard to find, product is 10-100x worse If you have a job, be thankful, don't rock the ship OBVIOUSLY there will be statements to the contrary, but this is really more in the spirit of - if…

The change was quite shocking. For 25 years, to get a new job I’d send out 5 resumes, get 4 interviews, and 3 offers. This time around, I sent 200+ resumes, got 2 interviews, and ghosted on both.

Re: Unemployed office workers are having a harder time finding new jobs

#58

Post by gruez »

klipklop wrote: post #4

It’s been this way for at least 2 years. I suspect that WSJ held back such topics until after the election… The people I know that lose their job spend at least 1 year looking for a job. Usually at a significantly lower salary. With the current rate of inflation it’s a 1-2 punch that requires a big step down in lifestyle. I don’t really see these conditions changing until there is a AI bubble pop or something. Facebo…

>I suspect that WSJ held back such topics until after the election…

Why?

Re: Unemployed office workers are having a harder time finding new jobs

#59

Post by weard_beard »

gruez wrote: post #58
klipklop wrote: post #4

It’s been this way for at least 2 years. I suspect that WSJ held back such topics until after the election… The people I know that lose their job spend at least 1 year looking for a job. Usually at a significantly lower salary. With the current rate of inflation it’s a 1-2 punch that requires a big step down in lifestyle. I don’t really see these conditions changing until there is a AI bubble pop or something. Facebo…

>I suspect that WSJ held back such topics until after the election… Why?

The current administration's poor messaging on inflation and the economic problems faced by many Americans was a significant contributing factor to their loss of the election. (https://www.barrons.com/articles/economy-2024-election-why-h...)

The WSJ and other major publications have a vested interest in brokering access by tailoring their coverage to be friendly to those in power. They are largely responsible for setting the agenda and tone of issues during an election.

(https://archive.pagecentertraining.psu.edu/public-relations-...)

Given these two factual statements... The stated stance of the current administration was to downplay the impact and scale of economic hardship, and the role of major media outlets during an election is to set out the agenda and issues to be debated during an election period...

I think it clearly follows that the WSJ had a vested interest in providing one perspective on the economy before and during the election, and now that this period is over, they can provide a different perspective more aligned with the perspective of the working class, and less aligned with the perspective of the incumbent administration.

Re: Unemployed office workers are having a harder time finding new jobs

#60

Post by naveen99 »

Yeul wrote: post #54
nicbou wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same labour shortage was all over the news in Germany. Meanwhile people were mocking the salaries and conditions offered by those industries. Immigration is only means to acquire labour at below market rate.

Well there two reasons here in the Netherlands. Some jobs are unworthy for Dutch people. Your Dutch nationality protects you from slavery. For this there are immigrants. The second reason is that we have a lot of people doing bullshit jobs in climate controlled offices but nobody wants to do physical labour.

Maybe they should list typical daily active calorie expenditure for job positions ? We need an uber for mixing sedentary and physical jobs.
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