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More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

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Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#51

Post by dismalaf »

The most difficult part about the stock market is that stocks don't move for the reasons people think.

People think fundamentals, news, financial performance, or chart patterns matter. But none of it does.

Markets are driven purely by supply and demand. And in this case, supply and demand for the stock itself.

Fundamentals are already priced in. Financial performance is already priced in. Expectations are priced in, and others probably have more information than you anyway. Other people also watch chart patterns and place their bets based on that.

What you're betting on is whether the market is right, or wrong. Or whether other investors will think the market is right or wrong.

Edit - the other part of it is that Wall Street firms hire tons of people who are incredibly smart, have math, economics and finance degrees or even PhDs, hire software engineers and spend hundreds of millions on infrastructure just to know the market better than you. You're not smarter than all those people put together.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#55

Post by s5300 »

sneak wrote: post #28
aithrowawaycomm wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of sneering about "idiots" and inventing pseudoscientific gibberish about natural selection is to wash one's hands of moral responsibility for scamming naive young people, the elderly, or adults with psychiatric or cognitive disabilities. "It wasn't me robbing your college-age son out of a new car, that was just natural selection doing its thing! So long, losers!" My mom was a very crappy person who stron…

I would prefer clever people have resources instead of any of those groups you listed. I have this preference even if I am not the one being clever (so, via the veil of ignorance).

[dead]

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#56

Post by User23 »

matt3210 wrote: post #38

At one point I knew I could beat the market with l33t software skills. I was wrong and only realized it after donating about 3k to Wall Street.

A 3k bankroll isn’t remotely close to enough working capital to employ any kind of useful risk management strategy and get any kind of return worth the bother.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#57

Post by s5300 »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #16
aithrowawaycomm wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of sneering about "idiots" and inventing pseudoscientific gibberish about natural selection is to wash one's hands of moral responsibility for scamming naive young people, the elderly, or adults with psychiatric or cognitive disabilities. "It wasn't me robbing your college-age son out of a new car, that was just natural selection doing its thing! So long, losers!" My mom was a very crappy person who stron…

I've adopted the sucker born ever minute attitude since it's all I can do. These fools have the tenacity to be scammed at a rate faster than we can ever hope to do anything about and it's depressing otherwise. Society ends up bearing the cost.

[dead]

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#58

Post by jfengel »

dismalaf wrote: post #51

The most difficult part about the stock market is that stocks don't move for the reasons people think. People think fundamentals, news, financial performance, or chart patterns matter. But none of it does. Markets are driven purely by supply and demand. And in this case, supply and demand for the stock itself. Fundamentals are already priced in. Financial performance is already priced in. Expectations are priced in,…

In the long term fundamentals will matter. But the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Ordinarily I would say that an investment in a broad index for the long term (a decade or more) is always wise, and there's no point in trying to time it more specifically than that. However right now it's been irrationally exuberant for a long time. it's going to have to correct itself... Either tomorrow or another ten years.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#59

Post by delichon »

epolanski wrote: post #9

I remember a controversial scamming figure in Italy that made millions by selling lucky numbers for lotteries or exploiting people's stupidity to part them with their life savings. Her motto was "idiots _have_ to be scammed". While this figure was morally and ethically deplorable, it always made me think how her motto essentially implied that there was an element of pure natural selection happening and she saw hersel…

  The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools. -- Herbert Spencer

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#60

Post by seattle_spring »

User23 wrote: post #17
epolanski wrote: post #9

I remember a controversial scamming figure in Italy that made millions by selling lucky numbers for lotteries or exploiting people's stupidity to part them with their life savings. Her motto was "idiots _have_ to be scammed". While this figure was morally and ethically deplorable, it always made me think how her motto essentially implied that there was an element of pure natural selection happening and she saw hersel…

This is a position commonly referred to as "Social Darwinism." The same logic can get you to "drunk women out by themselves _have_ to be sexually assaulted" and so on. No, it's not OK to victimize people just because they're vulnerable. It's an absolutely odious caricature of moral reasoning.

I disagree with the comparison. A "drunk woman out by themselves" is, at the end of the day, just a person exercising their right to exist. A stock-market gambler, on the other hand, is literally betting on the bad decisions of whoever is on the other side of their trades. It's a predatory position to be in, and deserves a whole lot less sympathy.
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