Earlier quoted context omitted.
Right. And I'm sure that if I ever get in a better mood, I'll find that the current AI/LLM craze is good for _something_. Right now the world needs GWh batteries made of salt, cheap fusion from trash, telepathy, a cure for cancer and a vaccine for the common cold - but in the meantime, advertisers can generate photos for their ads, which is, _good_, I guess ?
Once we get superintelligence — some time next year I’d say — then we will have a tool to make all those dreams come true.
The Influence of Bell Labs
51–60 of 139 posts
Re: The Influence of Bell Labs
#52Kind of a strange statement. Fairchild took the "traitorous eight" from Shockley Semiconductor, which was founded by William Shockley, who famously co-invented the transistor at Bell Labs (and who named the "traitorous eight" as such.)
So while Fairchild "didn’t operate anything like a basic research lab", its co-invention of the IC was not unrelated to having a large amount of DNA from Bell Labs.
Re: The Influence of Bell Labs
#53Just reading the book The Idea Factory, it was incredible amount of innovation. Lasers, early satellites, transistors. And it was all done, apparently, at least in the beginning, because they hired smart people and they let them do what they wanted.
All true, but monopoly profits sure help.
Re: The Influence of Bell Labs
#54I think the mythos of the Bell labs and other thinktanks of the Cold War era is overstated to some extent. https://greyenlightenment.com/2024/07/19/the-decline-of-cold... These organizations employed too many people of relatively mediocre ability relative to output, leading to waste and eventual disbandment. Today's private sector companies in FAMNG+ are making bigger breakthroughs in AI, apps, self-driving cars, etc…
Those weren’t really the topics people were interested in at the time (depending on your definition of AI).
The shoulders of giants, as they say.
Re: The Influence of Bell Labs
#55Okay, I'm really in a sad mood, so: tell me there will be places like that, again, somewhere, ever ? We need this. Like, really, we need someone to have created the xerox part of the 21st century, somewhere about 20 years ago. I honestly though Google would be that - but apparently it's easier to fund R&D on "selling copying machines" than "selling ads". Maybe "selling ads" earn _too much_ money ? I don't know. I kno…
No, but you also shouldn't romanticize Bell Labs _too_ much. It was not exactly a fun place to work. You got a 2 year postdoc and then you were out, and those two years were absolutely brutal. Its existence was effectively an accounting fluke. Nothing like it really exists now because it would largely be seen as an inefficiency. Blame Jack Welch, McKinsey, KKR, HBS or whoever you like.
I couldn't disagree more, but perhaps the time I was there (late 90s) was different.
Re: The Influence of Bell Labs
#56I think the mythos of the Bell labs and other thinktanks of the Cold War era is overstated to some extent. https://greyenlightenment.com/2024/07/19/the-decline-of-cold... These organizations employed too many people of relatively mediocre ability relative to output, leading to waste and eventual disbandment. Today's private sector companies in FAMNG+ are making bigger breakthroughs in AI, apps, self-driving cars, etc…
I’m hoping this is sarcasm deserving my heart-felt belly laugh. FANG (or whatever the backcronym is these days) “selective hiring” is just puzzle driven mediocrity with a ridiculous amount of elect self-praise at their own good fortune. And “performance metrics”, give me a break - product innovation is in the toilet and product quality even further down the drain. Unless you’re talking about advanced PR and market ma…
> Unless you’re talking about advanced PR and market manipulation techniques to capture and retain ad revenue
Those very much _are_ the goals at those enterprises.
Re: The Influence of Bell Labs
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Off the top of my head: Shannon, Nyquist, Hamming. Lapping them you say.
I think my reading of your comment is: that's just wrong. And I tend to agree. The current STEM and FAANG activity is second order work in the main. I wouldn't hold AI work up as a paragon, myself. It's diverting from progress across a field. I have hopes of a resurgence of operations research and linear optimisation as goods in themselves: we could be plotting more nuanced courses in dark waters of competing pressur…
Linear programming, and even integer linear programming are pretty well solved practically speaking.
Re: The Influence of Bell Labs
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
The secret hero of that time was the US government. I’m not talking about the MIC, which is still quite robust and more bad than good. I am speaking more broadly. If you had a practical PhD and were willing to show up at a place at 9:00, you could get a solid upper middle class job with the Feds where you couldn’t get fired unless you broke the law. The government also has always kept academia afloat. It is a privile…
Something that just dawned on me is the downstream effects of United States’ policy regarding science during WWII and the Cold War. The Manhattan Project, NASA, the NSA and all of its contributions to mathematics and cryptography, ARPA, DARPA, and many other agencies and programs not only directly contributed to science, but they also helped form a scientific culture that affected not only government-ran and governme…
Any kind of societal grand vision we had has been falling apart since about 1991. Slowly at first (all the talk about what to do with the "peace dividend" we were going to get after the fall of the Soviet Union) And that accelerated with the advent of the internet and then accelerated even more when social media came on the scene. We no longer have any kind of cohesive vision for what the future should look like and I don't see one emerging any time soon. We can't even agree on what's true anymore.
> I don’t know what government labs are like
Many of these are going to be in danger in the next administration especially if the DOGE guys get their way.
Re: The Influence of Bell Labs
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have come to realize that over the years, though I still believe that wealthier companies like Apple, NVIDIA, Facebook, and the like could fund curiosity-driven research, even if it’s not at the scale of Bell Labs or Xerox PARC. On a smaller scale, there is The Institute for Advanced Study where curiosity-driven research is encouraged, and there is the MacArthur Fellowship where fellows are granted $150,000 annual…
Maybe it's rare to do curiosity driven research. But from the days of Bell Labs, haven't we greatly improved our ability to connect between some research concept to the idea of doing something useful, somewhere ? And once you have that you can be connected to grants or some pre-VC funding, which might suffice, given the tools we have for conceptual development of preliminary ideas(simulation, for ex.) is far better t…
As big of a fan I am of Xerox PARC and Bell Labs, I don't want to come across as saying that the Bell Labs and Xerox PARC models of research are the only ways to do research. Indeed, Bell Labs couldn't convert many of its research ideas to products due to the agreement AT&T made with the federal government not to expand into other businesses, and Xerox PARC infamously failed to successfully monetize many of its inventions, and many of these researchers left Xerox for other companies who saw the business potential in their work, such as Apple, Adobe, and Microsoft, to name a few.
However, the problem with our current system of grants and VC funding is that they are not a good fit for riskier avenues of research where the impacts cannot be immediately seen, or the impact will take many years to develop. I am reminded of Alan Kay's comments (https://worrydream.com/2017-12-30-alan/) on how NSF grants require an explanation of how the researchers plan to solve the problem, which precludes exploratory research where one doesn't know how to attack the problem. Now, once again, this question from the NSF is not inappropriate; there are different phases of research, and coming up with an "attack plan" that is reasonable and is backed by a command of the prior art and a track record of solving other problems is part of research; all PhD programs have some sort of thesis proposal that requires answering the same question the NSF asks in its proposals. With that said, there is still the early phase of research where researchers are formulating the question, and where researchers are trying to figure out how they'd go about solving the problem. This early phase of research is part of research, too.
I think the funding situation for research depends on the type of research being done. For more applied research that has more obvious impact, especially business impact, then I believe there are plenty of opportunities out there that are more appropriate than old-school industrial research labs. However, for more speculative work where impacts are harder to see or where they are not immediate, the funding situation is much more difficult today compared to in the past where industrial research labs were less driven by the bottom line, and when academics had fewer "publish-or-perish" pressures.
Re: The Influence of Bell Labs
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
> honestly though Google would be that - but apparently it's easier to fund R&D on "selling copying machines" than "selling ads". Maybe "selling ads" earn _too much_ money ? I don't know. I'm pretty sure Google Brain was exactly what you are looking for: People like to think of DeepMind, but honestly, Brain pretty much had Bell Labs/PARCs strategy: they hired a bunch of brilliant people and told them to just "researc…
Right. And I'm sure that if I ever get in a better mood, I'll find that the current AI/LLM craze is good for _something_. Right now the world needs GWh batteries made of salt, cheap fusion from trash, telepathy, a cure for cancer and a vaccine for the common cold - but in the meantime, advertisers can generate photos for their ads, which is, _good_, I guess ?
Humanity’s natural state is abject poverty and strife. Look at any wealth graph of human history and note how people are destitute right up until the Industrial Revolution, and then the graph explodes upward.
In a way we (well, especially the West) are already living in utopia. You’re completely right that we can still vastly improve, but look back at the progress we already made!