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Declassified Pentagon F-35 Study Details Reliability, Security Woes

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Re: Declassified Pentagon F-35 Study Details Reliability, Security Woes

#51
post #4

Yet despite these problems, the F-35 remains the most commercially successful airframe in the world, with over 670 sold, and 2,500 on order from US-allied countries all over the world. What could explain this sales pipeline, if the F-35 was the boondoggle this article implies it to be?

4,600 F16s have been built, obviously it has the time advantage, but still, once F35 beats that number, I think it will be at the top.

Re: Declassified Pentagon F-35 Study Details Reliability, Security Woes

#52
post #43
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's not invisible despite calling it that. It's visible in the visible spectrum and hearable in the human hearing range, which means that you can build detection and tracking systems in those wavelengths instead of pretending that its invisible because its hard to detect at radar wavelengths. That’s not a gotcha you seem to believe it is, it’s like the first thing you learn about stealth technology and has been ap…

Wow really? Someone else already noticed that invisible to radar isn’t invisible to eyesight and event teaching it? lots of smart people out there. I’m happy that you’re feeling smart and superior but that’s not the point, the point is signal collection and processing came a long way, and maybe low radar cross-section isn’t that big of a deal anymore. At least enough to justify spending huge sums on a plane that keep…

>maybe low radar cross-section isn’t that big of a deal anymore

That's simply not true. There is not a peer or near-peer country that is not developing a variety of low-RCS aircraft.

Re: Declassified Pentagon F-35 Study Details Reliability, Security Woes

#53
post #19
post #4

Yet despite these problems, the F-35 remains the most commercially successful airframe in the world, with over 670 sold, and 2,500 on order from US-allied countries all over the world. What could explain this sales pipeline, if the F-35 was the boondoggle this article implies it to be?

>What could explain this sales pipeline, if the F-35 was the boondoggle this article implies it to be? A lack of actual proven fight-testing.

But it did the most extensive flight test program for anything in history [0]. I worked on this program for years. I do not think a lack of flight testing is the problem. The problems are many, but in short:

1) Lack of competent, forceful oversight from the program office. DOT&E reports about the F-35 program have, for years, given the program office recommendations that it has failed to follow.

2) A prime contractor (Lockheed-Martin) that restricts access to its data. The F-35 program had to sue LM in federal court to get access to the necessary data to make the Joint Simulation Environment (JSE) fully functional. In the end, the case was settled, but only after six years of battle. The report linked in the parent article describes how maintainers are not allowed access to servicing procedures that they have on other aircraft. I have seen this personally in flight test. Even something like a gear swing requires an LM certified Field Services Engineer to conduct.

3) A completely broken software release process. For many years in developmental flight test, we received software builds that were just entirely broken, as in, the jet would not start with that software loaded. The C2D2 process was advertised as fixing this, but really it was just a new name for the same old fly-fix-fly process. The parent report details entire versions that were skipped in the IOT&E process because they were so buggy. The program could have turned JSE into the final stop for new software builds before hitting the fleet, but it chose to pivot entirely into training instead.

I could keep going. A decade working in a program like this gives you a long list of things to talk about. But I'll stop here for now.

[0] https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2018-04-12-F-35-Completes-Mo...

Re: Declassified Pentagon F-35 Study Details Reliability, Security Woes

#54
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DARPA's Air Combat Evolution program (ACE) began with AIs fighting each other in a simulated environment in a tournament. Then the winning AI fought against a human (USAF Fighter Weapons School graduate) in that simulated environment, and won. The company that developed the winning AI, Shield AI, has gone on to deploy an AI in an actual F-16 that has flown against a human in trials. https://www.darpa.mil/program/air-…

Many people underestimate the challenges of working in this environment. The DARPA challenge is like saying that boxing is the same as hand to hand combat. There are many similarities but the first has rules and parameters and the second has none. I find that people in IT tend to arrogantly proclaim things along the lines of, "I've set up a Kubernetes cluster. This can't be any more difficult." but it's more like set…

I've worked with quite a few people who were part of the AI effort, and my current boss was the architect for ACE a few years ago. All of those people were painfully aware of the gap you describe here and were actively working to bridge it.

Re: Declassified Pentagon F-35 Study Details Reliability, Security Woes

#55
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Besides, it's not invisible despite calling it that. It's visible in the visible spectrum and hearable in the human hearing range, which means that you can build detection and tracking systems in those wavelengths instead of pretending that its invisible because its hard to detect at radar wavelengths. There have absolutely been programs to reduce the visual signatures of aircrafts. Yehudi lights, COMPASS GHOST, BoP…

Good point but all these things can be fitted on a drone too.

It's not like UCAVs aren't being developed, though. Piloted aircraft have lower latency and are better for some tasks. If UAVs were ready to replace piloted aircraft in all combat roles, they would have. They have almost completely replaced piloted aircraft in ISR, for example, where they are a great fit (no Gary Powers, no latency issues). The Pentagon doesn't want to lose trained pilots.

Re: Declassified Pentagon F-35 Study Details Reliability, Security Woes

#56
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point but all these things can be fitted on a drone too.

It's not like UCAVs aren't being developed, though. Piloted aircraft have lower latency and are better for some tasks. If UAVs were ready to replace piloted aircraft in all combat roles, they would have. They have almost completely replaced piloted aircraft in ISR, for example, where they are a great fit (no Gary Powers, no latency issues). The Pentagon doesn't want to lose trained pilots.

Does it justify the expense and the shortcomings though? Horses also have some advantages over tanks, like refueling from the grass on the roadside but they become mostly ceremonial anyway.

Re: Declassified Pentagon F-35 Study Details Reliability, Security Woes

#57
post #4

Yet despite these problems, the F-35 remains the most commercially successful airframe in the world, with over 670 sold, and 2,500 on order from US-allied countries all over the world. What could explain this sales pipeline, if the F-35 was the boondoggle this article implies it to be?

> the boondoggle this article implies it to be? I highly recommend reading contemporary reporting on what are considered wildly successful aircraft (like the teen series F-14/15/16). Hint: Just change one number and they're indistinguishable from reporting on the F-35.

the F-14 was an expensive hanger queen and was retired rapidly. the F-16 is still seeing use and was rotated out years after the F-14.

but yeah all fighters have bugs, often a lot of them

Re: Declassified Pentagon F-35 Study Details Reliability, Security Woes

#58
post #4

Yet despite these problems, the F-35 remains the most commercially successful airframe in the world, with over 670 sold, and 2,500 on order from US-allied countries all over the world. What could explain this sales pipeline, if the F-35 was the boondoggle this article implies it to be?

The same, or similar 'mechanisms' which enabled https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_bribery_scandals ?

Re: Declassified Pentagon F-35 Study Details Reliability, Security Woes

#59
post #34
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk can be many bad things, but he is also right in some things. Flying high might make it invisible for human observers but the idea is that it’s not invisible in that wavelength, therefore it must be possible to create devices that can detect it. Also, this is a brand new machine that is still not ready. Just write it off, liquidate any useful work that might have been done on it and go all in drones. What’s the p…

If a bunch of microphones and binoculars would defeat stealth fighters (or any kind of jets) don't you think someone in the US, Chinese or Russian army would have thought about it ? Just as a reminder the thing is coming at mach 1.5-2 and as soon as it can it'll send a little present coming your way at mach 2-4 > therefore it must be possible to create devices that can detect it. What's the probability some over work…

> Remember the early Ukraine invasion when a couple of bayraktars almost single handedly saved the country during the initial wave ? It was neither stealthy nor fast

The Bayraktars are the budget-drone option. A big part of their success was less that they're good, and more that the Russians kept all of their EW and AA turned off to achieve tactical surprise. Which they sort of did, but not enough to anchor the fight, and the budget drones were effective at killing a lot of AA early on, increasing their window of lethality.

Once they got their EW & AA game together the Bayraktars stopped being dangerous very quickly.

Re: Declassified Pentagon F-35 Study Details Reliability, Security Woes

#60
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What could explain this sales pipeline, if the F-35 was the boondoggle this article implies it to be? The overwhelming USA sphere of influence over its "allies". I don't really see a NATO member buying new fighter jets from China or Russia instead without that causing a big ruckus.

Sweden sells a really nice NATO-compatible multirole jet.

The Gripen is not a dual-capable aircraft, meaning it isn't certified to carry nuclear weapons. This makes it a tough sell to NATO nations who must align themselves to NATO's strategic goals [0], which call for nations to contribute dual-capable aircraft. Nor is the Gripen independent from US supply chains. It uses the General Electric F414-GE-39E engine.

If you're a NATO nation looking for a non-US jet that can satisfy your dual-capable needs, your only option is the Rafale.

[0] https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pd...

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