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Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

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Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#51

Post by protomolecule »

ethbr1 wrote: post #27
Etheryte wrote: post #10

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions.…

The point of modern sanctions is not that it makes import impossible (look at Russian circumvention for dual-use military technologies), but that it makes import at whole-economy scale more expensive and unreliable. And ultimately that's what imposes economic costs. It'll be curious how much of the gap is filled by substitute Chinese goods. (E.g. the domestic CFM-alternative engine projects [0]) With the wrinkle that…

[flagged]

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#52

Post by JumpCrisscross »

cen4 wrote: post #46
Etheryte wrote: post #10

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions.…

The sanctions don't have a goal. So anyone can say anything. Besides Air Transport is a small ass part of GDP. Their MIL complex is on over drive, more than compensating for whatever hits the other sectors are taking. Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies. The US & EU are not serious about winning this war, mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can.

> sanctions don't have a goal

You missed the goal of sanctions on Russia?

> MIL complex is on over drive

This is correct. The Russian economy is doing fine.

> mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can

This is wrong. It’s a resource-commitment problem. Not one of capabilities or confidence.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#53

Post by JumpCrisscross »

sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #50
ethbr1 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point of modern sanctions is not that it makes import impossible (look at Russian circumvention for dual-use military technologies), but that it makes import at whole-economy scale more expensive and unreliable. And ultimately that's what imposes economic costs. It'll be curious how much of the gap is filled by substitute Chinese goods. (E.g. the domestic CFM-alternative engine projects [0]) With the wrinkle that…

Russia is a civilian aircraft producer. There's no need for Chinese airplanes (which they have troubles with).

> Russia is a civilian aircraft producer

Massive difference between airliners and aircraft. Russia has not shown itself capable of mass manufacturing airliners. (Or even advanced aircraft for that matter.)

That said, as a petro state, they’re fine running inefficient engines across their skies.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#55

Post by audunw »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #37
loeg wrote: post #16

Great to see sanctions working. Withdraw from Ukraine and sanctions end.

> and sanctions end Source on that? No documented cases in history of U.S. sanctions ever ending. (Which is why from a game theoretic point of view the only winning move is import substitution, not kowtowing to whatever terrorist demands.)

I guess we don’t say that USA had “sanctions” against the Soviet Union, but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? So we have a direct example from history from the same region.

I would say that Vietnam also shows that economic relations can improve a lot even without a fundamental change in the regime.

China is also an example where economic relations improved.

I don’t see any reason to think that sanctions can’t be lifted. But it may require a complete collapse of Putins regime/party for it to happen on a short timescale. Is there any reason to think USA wouldn’t be willing to open up to a new leadership if they have a radically different attitude and pull out of Ukraine?

If Russia turns into something like North Korea or Iran, then yeah, the outlook is not good. But why should it be?

From a game theoretical point of view: I don’t think any leader of any country wants to end up like North Korea, so the precedent being set is good.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#56

Post by the_mitsuhiko »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #52
cen4 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sanctions don't have a goal. So anyone can say anything. Besides Air Transport is a small ass part of GDP. Their MIL complex is on over drive, more than compensating for whatever hits the other sectors are taking. Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies. The US & EU are not serious about winning this war, mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can.

> sanctions don't have a goal You missed the goal of sanctions on Russia? > MIL complex is on over drive This is correct. The Russian economy is doing fine. > mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can This is wrong. It’s a resource-commitment problem. Not one of capabilities or confidence.

> This is correct. The Russian economy is doing fine.

The Russian economy is doing "mixed". It's a war economy which can be propped up for quite a while but it has significant structural issues that will take years to repair. The country won't fail, but it will further struggle because of the decisions made my leadership.

I find this general attitude of "Russia has no issues" that are going around on the internet quite confusing if pretty much every economic indicator says otherwise. Let alone the fact that a meaningful part of the working population is fighting or left the country rather than engaging in the economy.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#57

Post by sedan_baklazhan »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #53
sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is a civilian aircraft producer. There's no need for Chinese airplanes (which they have troubles with).

> Russia is a civilian aircraft producer Massive difference between airliners and aircraft. Russia has not shown itself capable of mass manufacturing airliners. (Or even advanced aircraft for that matter.) That said, as a petro state, they’re fine running inefficient engines across their skies.

Are you serious? Look up SSJ-100 production numbers.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#58

Post by otabdeveloper4 »

audunw wrote: post #55
otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and sanctions end Source on that? No documented cases in history of U.S. sanctions ever ending. (Which is why from a game theoretic point of view the only winning move is import substitution, not kowtowing to whatever terrorist demands.)

I guess we don’t say that USA had “sanctions” against the Soviet Union, but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? So we have a direct example from history from the same region. I would say that Vietnam also shows that economic relations can improve a lot even without a fundamental change in the regime. China is also an example where economic relations improved.…

> but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no?

No. None of the sanctions levied against the USSR were lifted and still technically apply to Russia. (Enforcing them is another matter.)

> I don’t think any leader of any country wants to end up like North Korea

North Korea is doing better than South Korea on every metric except "consumer goods availability" and "international relations". Not sure you're making your case here.

> ...or Iran

Iran is more modern, developed and free than any other middle eastern country. (That includes Israel.)

Your ideas are wildly out of sync with actual reality.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#59

Post by untech »

sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #57
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia is a civilian aircraft producer Massive difference between airliners and aircraft. Russia has not shown itself capable of mass manufacturing airliners. (Or even advanced aircraft for that matter.) That said, as a petro state, they’re fine running inefficient engines across their skies.

Are you serious? Look up SSJ-100 production numbers.

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Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#60

Post by JumpCrisscross »

untech wrote: post #59
sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you serious? Look up SSJ-100 production numbers.

[flagged]

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