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The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)

pudding.cool

51–60 of 74 posts

Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)

#51
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming you don't have an automated system to give away locker keys, wouldn't this be explained by the fact that gym front desk is more likely to give out the lowest number available and as you took X, they will give out X+1 for the next person?

I've never been to a gym where you're assigned a locker for the day (or given a key). Either you have one permanently assigned (rare) or you go in and find one that isn't occupied.

Sadly, my new gym assigns keys in numerical locker order. The Google Reviews are full of lamentations about it. However, the gym is right next door to my new place, so I am inclined to overlook these and other shortcomings.

Logistically, it makes sense for them, as it presumably cuts down on maintenance and cleaning. But it is super-annoying to squeeze past several other sweaty folk when there are two entire locker corridors empty and adjacent.

Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)

#52
post #29
post #8

I really like the fact that it's using the previous user birthdays. Unfortunately today is my birthday and I think a lot of people are entering today's date as their birthday, I got 6 matches... :)

Plenty of November birthdays because it's cold in Februrary (11 - 9 = 2).

Also: Valentines Day. I always figure that must have an effect.

Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)

#53
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ohh, I see! At my gym, locker keys are given to you by the front desk and you put in something as deposit (such as your gym card or whatever you wish) and on your way out you give the key and you get your deposit back.

But why? Seems like it would be inconvenient to gym-users to add these extra steps to getting in and out of the gym. Especially if you have to wait behind other people just to get or return a key. What is the benefit of such a system?

In the case of my new gym (see my earlier reply above), far as I can tell, they are just saving money on modernization. There are similar other penny-pinching measures there, such as treadmills which apparently offer TV and Netflix, etc., but have no channels, no connectivity and no ability to cast over Bluetooth from your phone.

I asked them about the latter issue, and they said that it might get fixed next year; but there are years-old Google Reviews of the gym citing this promise!

Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)

#54
post #29
post #8

I really like the fact that it's using the previous user birthdays. Unfortunately today is my birthday and I think a lot of people are entering today's date as their birthday, I got 6 matches... :)

Plenty of November birthdays because it's cold in Februrary (11 - 9 = 2).

I always assumed it was because of Valentine's Day.

Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)

#55
post #45

While the math is clear, I'm a bit annoyed by the label "paradox" as the whole setup is too simplistic and reductionistic. The actual chance of being in the same room with someone who shares your birthday needs to include other factors like your socioeconomic background, the cultural environment you are in, your present location, and certain historical facts. Without having done the math, I'm fairly certain that a me…

> While the math is clear, I'm a bit annoyed by the label "paradox" as the whole setup is too simplistic and reductionistic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox#Veridical_paradox

(also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppX7Qjbe6BM for a 40min video discussing the weird usages of the word "paradox")

Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)

#56
post #8

I really like the fact that it's using the previous user birthdays. Unfortunately today is my birthday and I think a lot of people are entering today's date as their birthday, I got 6 matches... :)

At the end, if you ask for more nerd stuff, it displays a histogram of submitted birthdays. There’s two big outliers: one in November and one in January.

It looks like many people submit January 1 or the current date.

Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)

#60

An analog of the birthday paradox that gets me all the time is what I think of as The Locker Room Paradox. This is where when I go into the locker room after working out and the guy who comes in behind me ends in the locker right next to mine. So there’s two of us in a big empty room awkwardly jostling away.

There’s also the Aisle at a Show Paradox: as a tall guy, no matter where I stand at a concert I always seem to end up being the guy people decide is the aisle and jostle their way around me when transiting from one area of the venue to the other.

I haven’t tested this hypothesis yet but I suspect I could be wandering the desert and out of no where someone will try to slink past me while saying excuse me and spilling my canteen all over.

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