https://publications.aston.ac.uk/id/eprint/373/1/NCRG_94_004... mixture density networks are quite interesting if you want probabilistic estimates of neural. here, your model learns to output and array of gaussian distribution coefficient distributions, and mixture weights. these weights are specific to individual observations, and trained to maximise likelihood.
Bayesian Neural Networks
51–60 of 60 posts
Re: Bayesian Neural Networks
#52Re: Bayesian Neural Networks
#53Author here! What a surprise. This was an abandoned project from 2019, that we never linked or advertised anywhere as far as I know. Anyways, happy to answer questions.
why (if) was this not picked for further research? i know that oatml did quite amount of work on this front as well and it seems the direction is still being worked on. want to get ur 2 cent on this approach.
Re: Bayesian Neural Networks
#54What frustrates me about Bayesian NNs is that talking about "priors" doesn't make nearly as much sense as it does in a regression context. A prior over parameter weights has no interpretation in the way that a prior over a regression coefficient, or even a spline smoothness, does. What you really want -- and what natural intelligence probably has -- are priors over aspects of the world . Francois Chollet's paper on m…
I claim that knowing a priori about things like agents and objects just doesn't save you all that much data, as long as you have the imagination to consider all structures at least that complex.
Re: Bayesian Neural Networks
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
What did you use to produce the article? I really really like the formatting.
I think we used a distill.pub template. Also Jerry wrote some custom BNN fitting code in javascript. I'll ask my co-authors to open-source it.
Re: Bayesian Neural Networks
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are we talking about NN Taleb? I am curious about the twitter persona.
Someone by the name of V. Minakhin. They have an irrational hatred of Bayesian statistics. He blocked me on twitter for pointing out his claim about significant companies do not use Bayesian methods is contradicted by the fact that I work for one of those companies and use Bayesian methods.
Re: Bayesian Neural Networks
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
> For one, Bayesian inference and UQ fundamentally depends on the choice of the prior, but this is rarely discussed in the Bayesian NN literature and practice, and is further compounded by how fundamentally hard to interpret and choose these priors are (what is the intuition behind a NN's parameters?). I agree that, computationally, it is hard to justify the use of Bayesian methods on large-scale neural networks when…
Non-Bayesian NN training does indeed use regularizers that are chosen subjectively —- but they are then tested in validation, and the best-performing regularizer is chosen. Thus the choice is empirical, not subjective. A Bayesian could try the same thing: try out several priors, and pick the one that performs best in validation. But if you pick your prior based on the data, then the classic theory about “principled q…
I'd argue the choice is still subjective, since you are still only testing over a limited (subjective) set of options. If you are doing this properly (i.e., using an independent validation set), then you can apply the same approach to a Bayesian method and obtain the same type of information ("when I use prior A vs. prior B, how does that change the generalization/out-of-bag error properties of my model?"), without violating any properties or theoretical guarantees of "Bayesianism".
> A Bayesian could try the same thing: try out several priors, and pick the one that performs best in validation. But if you pick your prior based on the data, then the classic theory about “principled quantification of uncertainty” doesn’t apply any more.
If you subjectively define a set of possible priors (i.e., distributions and parameters) to test in a validation setting, then you are not picking your prior based on the data (again, assuming that you have set up a leakage-free partition of your data in training and validation data), and you are not doing empirical Bayes, so you are not violating any supposed "principled quantification of uncertainty" (if you believe that applying a standard subjective Bayesian approach provides you with "principled quantification of uncertainty").
My point was that, in practice, there are ways of choosing (subjective) priors such that they provide sufficient regularization while ensuring that their impact on the results is minimized, particularly when you can assume certain things about the scale of data (and, in the context of neural networks, you often can, due to things like "normalization layers" and prior scaling of inputs and outputs): "subjective" doesn't have to mean "arbitrary".
> So you’re left using a computationally unwieldy procedure that doesn’t offer theoretical guarantees.
I won't argue about the fact that training NN using Bayesian approaches is computationally unwieldy. I just don't see how evaluating a modelling decision (be in Bayesian or non-Bayesian modelling), using a proper validation process, would violate any specific theoretical guarantees.
If you can explain to me how evaluating the generalization properties of a Bayesian training recipe on an independent dataset violates any specific theoretical guarantees, I would be thankful (note: as far as I am concerned, "principled quantification of uncertainty" is not a specific theoretical guarantee).
Re: Bayesian Neural Networks
#58Re: Bayesian Neural Networks
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do you think they perform so poorly?
Theory-wise, I'm not convinced that the models have good approximation properties (the Kolmogorov-Arnold / Kolmogorov Superposition Theorem they base themselves on has quite a bit of nuance), and the optimization problem might be a bit tricky. I'm also can't see how to incorporate inductive biases other than the standard R^n / tabular regression one, and the existing attempts on this that I'm aware of are just band-a…
Only one follow up question:
> I'm also can't see how to incorporate inductive biases other than the standard R^n / tabular regression one, and the existing attempts on this that I'm aware of are just band-aids (along the lines of feature engineering)
A lot of the way we induct biases in the traditional network setting (activations are on the node instead of on the edge like in KAN) is by using graph-based architectures, like convolution or transformers, or by setting up particular losses and optimizations like in equivariant networks. Can't we do the same thing for KANs?