The most likely explanation is that the issue is not election related (for example, they knowingly allowed US bettors), but that they waited until after the election to avoid even the appearance of interfering in the election
FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
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Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#52> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios. When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking. Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?
Respectable and advisable? No. Smart? Yes.
Their audience here is the incoming administration, which is founded on party loyalty and an "us-vs-them" mindset, where "them" are the corrupt elites.
They're making a bet that whoever is prosecuting them in 4 months is going to be a lot friendlier to them if they act like victims of a vengeful democratic elite, and they're probably right. Really smart, honestly.
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#53I thought thid would happen when I see Kalshi launched an almost exact copy of Polymarket but claiming following US laws. This will follow the path of Binance.
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#54That looks interesting
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kalshi got the goahead from an appeals court to list election bets. I think Robinhood added election bets soonafter. Is there a reason that wouldn't apply to Polymarket? Granted, Polymarket was operating before that ruling. https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-rulin...
What rake did I just step on? I'm getting downvoted for this.
I think it's the perception that your comment assumes that the accusations by Polymarket that the Biden admin are targeting them for predicting Trump are true.
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#56> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios. When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking. Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?
Respectable and advisable? No. Smart? Yes. Their audience here is the incoming administration, which is founded on party loyalty and an "us-vs-them" mindset, where "them" are the corrupt elites. They're making a bet that whoever is prosecuting them in 4 months is going to be a lot friendlier to them if they act like victims of a vengeful democratic elite, and they're probably right. Really smart, honestly.
[deleted]
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#57Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble
Kalshi got the goahead from an appeals court to list election bets. I think Robinhood added election bets soonafter. Is there a reason that wouldn't apply to Polymarket? Granted, Polymarket was operating before that ruling. https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-rulin...
Has nothing to do with elections and all to do with being an unregulated market that has zero KYC.
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#58> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios. When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking. Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?
Respectable and advisable? No. Smart? Yes. Their audience here is the incoming administration, which is founded on party loyalty and an "us-vs-them" mindset, where "them" are the corrupt elites. They're making a bet that whoever is prosecuting them in 4 months is going to be a lot friendlier to them if they act like victims of a vengeful democratic elite, and they're probably right. Really smart, honestly.
Given Peter Thiel is a big investor in polymarket, and is JD Vance's daddy, I'm sure they will have no problem getting this case dismissed.
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#59>This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election I don't even understand what the conspiracy theory is here. Why would that be something the Biden administration would seek retribution for? And even it were, how would they possibly achieve it before the new administration takes office?
The conspiracy theory is that Polymarket was rigged by nefarious forces to promote Donald Trump. It was widely promulgated in the mainstream press* leading up to the election. If you view Polymarket as an illegitimate tool used to help put a dictator in the White House, not surprising the the party being being replaced would attack it. * E.g. the New Yorker, "Polymarket has seen a recent surge in pro-Trump election b…
So why not raid the corporate offices too? Why, out of all of the people and organizations involved, just the CEO?
The FBI is quite good at serving multiple warrants in multiple locations at the same time when pursuing conspiracies. Presumably, in the scenario where they are the conspiracy, they could do just as well.
It doesn't seem like a great conspiracy theory to explain what actually happened.
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#60He’ll get pardoned. It’s a Thiel company.
Accepting a presidential pardon requires an admission of guilt. Would being a confirmed criminal aide them in business in any way?