Live data from Hacker News

FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI

epochai.org

51–60 of 110 posts

Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI

#51
post #39
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although the answer isn't sent, so it would have to be a very deliberate effort to fish those out of the API chatter and find the right domain expert with 4-10 hours to spend on cracking it Just letting the AI train on its own wrong output wouldn't help. The benchmark already gives them lots of time for trial and error.

Why do people still insist that this is unlikely? Like assuming that the company that payed 15M for chat.com does not have some spare change to pay some graduate students/postdocs to solve some math problems. The publicity of solving such benchmark would definitely raise the valuation so it would 100% be worth it for them...

Simple: I highly doubt they're willing to risk a scandal that would further tarnish their brand. It's still reeling from last year's drama, in addition to a spate of high-profile departures this year. Not to mention a few articles with insider sources that aren't exactly flattering.

Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have yet to see any published evidence of that.

Since you go that route, do you have published evidence that shows they HAVENT entered the top of the S-curve?

What reason you have to believe we're anywhere close to the middle of the S-curve? S-curve may be only sustainable shape in nature in the limit, it doesn't mean any exponent you see someone claims is already past the inflection point.

Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI

#53
post #51
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people still insist that this is unlikely? Like assuming that the company that payed 15M for chat.com does not have some spare change to pay some graduate students/postdocs to solve some math problems. The publicity of solving such benchmark would definitely raise the valuation so it would 100% be worth it for them...

Simple: I highly doubt they're willing to risk a scandal that would further tarnish their brand. It's still reeling from last year's drama, in addition to a spate of high-profile departures this year. Not to mention a few articles with insider sources that aren't exactly flattering.

I doubt it would be seen as scandal. They can simply generate training data for these questions just like how they generate for other problems. Only difference is probably pay rate is much higher for this kind training data than most other areas.

Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI

#54
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most humans can't solve these problems, so it's certainly possible to imagine a legitimate AGI that can't either.

But humans can solve these problems given enough time and domain knowledge. An LLM would never be able to solve them unless they get smarter. Thats the point. It’s not about whether a random human can solve them. It’s whether AI, in general, can. Humans, in general, have proven to be able to solve them already.

I'm responding to this:

> It will be a useful benchmark to validate claims by people like Sam Altman about having achieved AGI.

I think it is possible to achieve AGI without creating an AGI that is an expert mathematician, and that it is possible to create a system that can do FrontierMath without achieving AGI. I.e. I think failure or success at FrontierMath is orthogonal to achieving AGI (though success at it may be a step on the way). Some humans can do it, and some AGIs could do it, but people and AI systems can have human-level intelligence without being able to do it. OTOH I think it would be hard to claim you have ASI if it can't do FrontierMath.

Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI

#55
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What kinds of problems in what domains did you test o1 models with? I found that they are good at logic and math problems but still hallucinate. I didn’t try to stretch test them with hard problems though.

Finding a path between two vertices when given an itinerary of all the edges in a general graph, exactly what I said in the OP.

Did you try asking them to write a program to do it?

Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI

#56
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But humans can solve these problems given enough time and domain knowledge. An LLM would never be able to solve them unless they get smarter. Thats the point. It’s not about whether a random human can solve them. It’s whether AI, in general, can. Humans, in general, have proven to be able to solve them already.

I'm responding to this: > It will be a useful benchmark to validate claims by people like Sam Altman about having achieved AGI. I think it is possible to achieve AGI without creating an AGI that is an expert mathematician, and that it is possible to create a system that can do FrontierMath without achieving AGI. I.e. I think failure or success at FrontierMath is orthogonal to achieving AGI (though success at it may b…

I think people just see FrontierMath as a goal post that an AGI needs to hit. The term "artificial general intelligence" implies that it can solve any problem a human can. If it can't solve math problems that an expert human can, then it's not AGI by definition.

I think we have to keep in mind that humans have specialized. Some do law. Some do math. Some are experts at farming. Some are experts at dance history. It's not the average AI vs the average human. It's the best AI vs the best humans at one particular task.

The point with FrontierMath is that we can summon at least one human in the world who can solve each problem. No AI can in 2024

Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI

#57
post #2

For some context on why this is important: this benchmark was designed to be extremely challenging for LLMs, with problems requiring several hours or days of work by expert mathematicians. Currently, LLMs solve 2% of problems in the set (which is kept private to prevent contamination). They even provide a quote from Terence Tao, which helped create the benchmark (alongside other Field medalists and IMO question write…

> Surprisingly, prediction markets [1] are putting 62% on AI achieving > 85% performance on the benchmark before 2028. Why surprisingly? 2028 is twice as long as capable LLMs existed to date. By "capable" here I mean capable enough to even remotely consider the idea of LLMs solving such tasks in the first place. ChatGPT/GPT-3.5 isn't even 2 years old ! 4 years is a lot of time. It's kind of silly to assume LLM capabi…

I think because if you end up having an AI that is as capable as the graduate students Tao is used to dealing with (so basically potential field medalists) then you are basically betting that 85% chance something like AGI (at least in consequence) will be here in 3 years. It is possible, but 85% chance?

Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI

#58
post #2

For some context on why this is important: this benchmark was designed to be extremely challenging for LLMs, with problems requiring several hours or days of work by expert mathematicians. Currently, LLMs solve 2% of problems in the set (which is kept private to prevent contamination). They even provide a quote from Terence Tao, which helped create the benchmark (alongside other Field medalists and IMO question write…

Would be interesting to know which model solved the 2% and what is the nature of the problems it solved.

Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI

#59
post #2

For some context on why this is important: this benchmark was designed to be extremely challenging for LLMs, with problems requiring several hours or days of work by expert mathematicians. Currently, LLMs solve 2% of problems in the set (which is kept private to prevent contamination). They even provide a quote from Terence Tao, which helped create the benchmark (alongside other Field medalists and IMO question write…

>Surprisingly, prediction markets [1] are putting 62% on AI achieving > 85% performance on the benchmark before 2028. Or they know the ancient technique of training on the test set. I know most of the questions are kept secret, but they are being regularly sent over the API to every LLM provider.

Of course lol. How come e.g. o1 scores so high on these reasoning and math and IMO benchmarks and then fails every simple question I ask of it? The answer is training on the test set.

Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI

#60
post #2

For some context on why this is important: this benchmark was designed to be extremely challenging for LLMs, with problems requiring several hours or days of work by expert mathematicians. Currently, LLMs solve 2% of problems in the set (which is kept private to prevent contamination). They even provide a quote from Terence Tao, which helped create the benchmark (alongside other Field medalists and IMO question write…

> Surprisingly, prediction markets [1] are putting 62% on AI achieving > 85% performance on the benchmark before 2028. Why surprisingly? 2028 is twice as long as capable LLMs existed to date. By "capable" here I mean capable enough to even remotely consider the idea of LLMs solving such tasks in the first place. ChatGPT/GPT-3.5 isn't even 2 years old ! 4 years is a lot of time. It's kind of silly to assume LLM capabi…

People really love pointing at the first part of a logistic curve and go "behold! an exponential".
Post reply on HN