Earlier quoted context omitted.
Although the answer isn't sent, so it would have to be a very deliberate effort to fish those out of the API chatter and find the right domain expert with 4-10 hours to spend on cracking it Just letting the AI train on its own wrong output wouldn't help. The benchmark already gives them lots of time for trial and error.
Why do people still insist that this is unlikely? Like assuming that the company that payed 15M for chat.com does not have some spare change to pay some graduate students/postdocs to solve some math problems. The publicity of solving such benchmark would definitely raise the valuation so it would 100% be worth it for them...
FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI
51–60 of 110 posts
Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have yet to see any published evidence of that.
Since you go that route, do you have published evidence that shows they HAVENT entered the top of the S-curve?
Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do people still insist that this is unlikely? Like assuming that the company that payed 15M for chat.com does not have some spare change to pay some graduate students/postdocs to solve some math problems. The publicity of solving such benchmark would definitely raise the valuation so it would 100% be worth it for them...
Simple: I highly doubt they're willing to risk a scandal that would further tarnish their brand. It's still reeling from last year's drama, in addition to a spate of high-profile departures this year. Not to mention a few articles with insider sources that aren't exactly flattering.
Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most humans can't solve these problems, so it's certainly possible to imagine a legitimate AGI that can't either.
But humans can solve these problems given enough time and domain knowledge. An LLM would never be able to solve them unless they get smarter. Thats the point. It’s not about whether a random human can solve them. It’s whether AI, in general, can. Humans, in general, have proven to be able to solve them already.
> It will be a useful benchmark to validate claims by people like Sam Altman about having achieved AGI.
I think it is possible to achieve AGI without creating an AGI that is an expert mathematician, and that it is possible to create a system that can do FrontierMath without achieving AGI. I.e. I think failure or success at FrontierMath is orthogonal to achieving AGI (though success at it may be a step on the way). Some humans can do it, and some AGIs could do it, but people and AI systems can have human-level intelligence without being able to do it. OTOH I think it would be hard to claim you have ASI if it can't do FrontierMath.
Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
What kinds of problems in what domains did you test o1 models with? I found that they are good at logic and math problems but still hallucinate. I didn’t try to stretch test them with hard problems though.
Finding a path between two vertices when given an itinerary of all the edges in a general graph, exactly what I said in the OP.
Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
But humans can solve these problems given enough time and domain knowledge. An LLM would never be able to solve them unless they get smarter. Thats the point. It’s not about whether a random human can solve them. It’s whether AI, in general, can. Humans, in general, have proven to be able to solve them already.
I'm responding to this: > It will be a useful benchmark to validate claims by people like Sam Altman about having achieved AGI. I think it is possible to achieve AGI without creating an AGI that is an expert mathematician, and that it is possible to create a system that can do FrontierMath without achieving AGI. I.e. I think failure or success at FrontierMath is orthogonal to achieving AGI (though success at it may b…
I think we have to keep in mind that humans have specialized. Some do law. Some do math. Some are experts at farming. Some are experts at dance history. It's not the average AI vs the average human. It's the best AI vs the best humans at one particular task.
The point with FrontierMath is that we can summon at least one human in the world who can solve each problem. No AI can in 2024
Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI
#57For some context on why this is important: this benchmark was designed to be extremely challenging for LLMs, with problems requiring several hours or days of work by expert mathematicians. Currently, LLMs solve 2% of problems in the set (which is kept private to prevent contamination). They even provide a quote from Terence Tao, which helped create the benchmark (alongside other Field medalists and IMO question write…
> Surprisingly, prediction markets [1] are putting 62% on AI achieving > 85% performance on the benchmark before 2028. Why surprisingly? 2028 is twice as long as capable LLMs existed to date. By "capable" here I mean capable enough to even remotely consider the idea of LLMs solving such tasks in the first place. ChatGPT/GPT-3.5 isn't even 2 years old ! 4 years is a lot of time. It's kind of silly to assume LLM capabi…
Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI
#58For some context on why this is important: this benchmark was designed to be extremely challenging for LLMs, with problems requiring several hours or days of work by expert mathematicians. Currently, LLMs solve 2% of problems in the set (which is kept private to prevent contamination). They even provide a quote from Terence Tao, which helped create the benchmark (alongside other Field medalists and IMO question write…
Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI
#59For some context on why this is important: this benchmark was designed to be extremely challenging for LLMs, with problems requiring several hours or days of work by expert mathematicians. Currently, LLMs solve 2% of problems in the set (which is kept private to prevent contamination). They even provide a quote from Terence Tao, which helped create the benchmark (alongside other Field medalists and IMO question write…
>Surprisingly, prediction markets [1] are putting 62% on AI achieving > 85% performance on the benchmark before 2028. Or they know the ancient technique of training on the test set. I know most of the questions are kept secret, but they are being regularly sent over the API to every LLM provider.
Re: FrontierMath: A benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI
#60For some context on why this is important: this benchmark was designed to be extremely challenging for LLMs, with problems requiring several hours or days of work by expert mathematicians. Currently, LLMs solve 2% of problems in the set (which is kept private to prevent contamination). They even provide a quote from Terence Tao, which helped create the benchmark (alongside other Field medalists and IMO question write…
> Surprisingly, prediction markets [1] are putting 62% on AI achieving > 85% performance on the benchmark before 2028. Why surprisingly? 2028 is twice as long as capable LLMs existed to date. By "capable" here I mean capable enough to even remotely consider the idea of LLMs solving such tasks in the first place. ChatGPT/GPT-3.5 isn't even 2 years old ! 4 years is a lot of time. It's kind of silly to assume LLM capabi…