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US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash

reuters.com

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Re: US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash

#51
post #40

Will the review assess overall mortality of the vehicles compared to similar cars, and overall mortality while FSD is in use?

Lawyers are not known for their prowess in mathematics, let alone statistics.

Making these arguments from the standpoint of an engineer is counterproductive.

Re: US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash

#52
Only the US government can allow corporations to beta test unproven technology on the public.

Governments should carry out comprehensive tests on a self-driving car's claimed capabilities. This is the same as cars without proven passenger safety (Euro NCAP) aren't allowed to be on roads carrying passengers.

Re: US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash

#53

Only the US government can allow corporations to beta test unproven technology on the public. Governments should carry out comprehensive tests on a self-driving car's claimed capabilities. This is the same as cars without proven passenger safety (Euro NCAP) aren't allowed to be on roads carrying passengers.

> Only the US government can allow corporations to beta test unproven technology on the public.

China and Russia do it too. It's not an excuse, but definitely not just the US.

Re: US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash

#54
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you scale your numbers in proportion of miles driven autonomously vs manually?

Yeah, that’d be the interesting figure: How many deaths per million miles driven? How does Tesla’s full self driving stack up against human drivers?

Even that is not good enough, because the "autopilot" usually is not engaged in challenging conditions making any direct comparisons not really reliable. You need similar roads in simila weather and similar time of the day for approximating good comparison.

Re: US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash

#55
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those numbers aren't all the fatalities associated with tesla cars; IE, you can't compare the 45K/year (roughly 1 per 100M miles driven) to the limited number of reports. What they are looking for is whether there are systematic issues with the design and implementation that make it unsafe.

Unsafe relative to what? Certainly not to normal human drivers in normal cars. Those are killing people left and right.

I don't think the intent is to compare it to normal human drivers, although having some level of estimate of accident/injury/death rates (to both the driver, passenger, and people outside the car) with FSD enabled/disabled would be very interesting.

Re: US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash

#56
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those numbers aren't all the fatalities associated with tesla cars; IE, you can't compare the 45K/year (roughly 1 per 100M miles driven) to the limited number of reports. What they are looking for is whether there are systematic issues with the design and implementation that make it unsafe.

Unsafe relative to what? Certainly not to normal human drivers in normal cars. Those are killing people left and right.

Those are good questions. We should investigate to find out. (It'd be different from this one but it raises a good question. What is FSD safe compared to?)

Re: US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash

#57
post #47

My Tesla routinely tries to kill me on absolutely normal California roads in normal sunny conditions, especially when there are cars parked on the side of the road (it often brakes thinking I'm about to crash into them, or even swerves into them thinking that's the "real" lane). Elon's Unsupervised FSD dreams are a good bit off. I do hope they happen though.

Why do you drive a car that routinely tries to kill you? That would put me right off. Can't you just turn off the autopilot?

My guess is the driver tests it regularly.

How does it do X, Y, ooh Z works, etc...

Re: US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash

#58

> NHTSA said it was opening the inquiry after four reports of crashes where FSD was engaged during reduced roadway visibility like sun glare, fog, or airborne dust. A pedestrian was killed in Rimrock, Arizona, in November 2023 after being struck by a 2021 Tesla Model Y, NHTSA said. Another crash under investigation involved a reported injury > The probe covers 2016-2024 Model S and X vehicles with the optional system…

> making 4 report crashes and 1 reported fatality for 2.4 million vehicles over 8 years look miniscule by comparison,

that's the wrong comparison

the correct comparison is the number of report crashes and fatalities for __unsupervised FSD__ miles driven (not counting Tesla pilot tests, but actual customers)

Re: US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash

#59
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unsafe relative to what? Certainly not to normal human drivers in normal cars. Those are killing people left and right.

I don't think the intent is to compare it to normal human drivers, although having some level of estimate of accident/injury/death rates (to both the driver, passenger, and people outside the car) with FSD enabled/disabled would be very interesting.

> I don't think the intent is to compare it to normal human drivers

I think our intent should be focused on where the fatalities are happening. To keep things comparable, we could maybe do 40,000 studies on distracted driving in normal cars for every one or two caused by Autopilot / FSD.

Alas, that's not where our priorities are.

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