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Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

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Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#51

Post by Ajedi32 »

epolanski wrote: post #36
jvanderbot wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Traditional" self-driving stacks use a ton of pre-built maps, lidar and other range sensors, and has teams of people keeping those maps registered and up to date. Tesla's plan is (or has become) to do an end-run around all that, and just train a giant network on camera-only sensor stacks, so that it can navigate without large 3D representations of the environment / city in which it works, without expensive lidar/rad…

> something like lvl 3 autonomy before any other company did I'm quite sure Mercedes-Benz was the first to bring lvl 3 autonomy on the market. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/09/mercedes-benzs-level-3-... It is also the only carmaker confident enough in the system that it takes full liability over it > Confidence in Drive Pilot is high within Mercedes-Benz, as the system has been active in Germany for over a year w…

According to that article Mercedes-Benz's system is exclusively highway driving. Technically level three, but not "full self driving" as most people would understand it, or as Tesla defines the term.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#52

Post by hdjjhhvvhga »

epolanski wrote: post #35
mrich wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it's ok to sell a feature to customers if you only find out later it's not possible?

It's Elon Musk after all. His boldness and thinking he's exceptional is both the reason of his success and failures.

To be fair I believe we all have this basic bias. For example, when I have a streak of failures, I approach another task with caution, even though it may be simple and normally I'd do it easily. And when I have several successes, I get overconfident and commit to hard tasks (and sometimes even complete them, by a combination of experience, luck, and other factors). Musk had some great successes and believes it is his inherent feature. (Or, at least, this is how he appears.)

The good thing is that we, as humanity, benefit from his successes, but have also deal with his unfulfillable promises, not to mention occasional fits.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#53

Post by [deleted] »

grecy wrote: post #12
anonzzzies wrote: post #4

So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…

Obviously he is wildly optimist About timelines, but you can’t deny SpaceX have done incredible things that literally every expert said was impossible. I still like his quote “SpaceX makes the impossible merely late” Fully self driving cars and people on Mars will happen. And I feel pretty certain Tesla and SpaceX will be at least a bit responsible for pushing it to happen faster than if they didn’t exist. Of course…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#54

Post by anonymousab »

grecy wrote: post #12
anonzzzies wrote: post #4

So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…

Obviously he is wildly optimist About timelines, but you can’t deny SpaceX have done incredible things that literally every expert said was impossible. I still like his quote “SpaceX makes the impossible merely late” Fully self driving cars and people on Mars will happen. And I feel pretty certain Tesla and SpaceX will be at least a bit responsible for pushing it to happen faster than if they didn’t exist. Of course…

Then he can refund the cost to every Tesla owner with interest, and let his optimism carry him to great profits once the tech is actually finished. Surely he can do that, if actually believes what he is saying and wasn't just doing an impossible cash grab with tech that would never be capable of doing what he promised.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#55

Post by torginus »

Zenzero wrote: post #22
torginus wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure - but Waymo and a few Chinese vendors already have self-driving robotaxis in production. That, combined with the AI boom, tells me that building a self-driving car (even if geofenced and/or L3) is on the horizon. If that's the case, Tesla will probably figure this out as well.

I'm no expert, but anyone can look at the sensors placed on a Waymo compared to a Tesla and likely rightly assume Waymo doesn't have all of that extra stuff just for looks. I don't see how Tesla is even a serious contender.

I think Tesla assumes that having more and better sensors doesn't really solve the hard problems - just like having more cooling in your computer allows for more performance, but its the die shrinks that get you the real scaling.

It's possible that there exists some error metric inside Tesla that consistently goes down with more training and bigger neural nets in their Vision FSD - whereas switching to LIDAR would reduce that error by a fixed 30%.

They just assume that vision will eventually work out.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#57

Post by Ajedi32 »

anonzzzies wrote: post #4

So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…

Having listened to many interviews by Musk I think he does believe his timelines, in the same way a football coach believes his team can win the Superbowl. They're meant as a goal to be striven towards by himself and those working under him, not as a cold, neutral assessment of the most likely outcome.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#58

Post by AlotOfReading »

sixQuarks wrote: post #43
mrkeen wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What software breakthroughs have they made that make you believe that FSD won't be 5 years away for the rest of time?

I have Tesla FSD, it already regularly drives me point to point with zero interventions.

I don't think anyone disputes that Tesla has a very decent ADAS system, what you're describing. As an individual driver though, you don't have the statistical power or access to the design process to see what would be different about an autonomous system without the possibility of local intervention. It brings some very different requirements.

Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase

#60

Post by [deleted] »

ryandvm wrote: post #50
anonzzzies wrote: post #4

So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…

He never believed in colonizing Mars (unless he's a moron). His Mars ambition has always just been about snatching the most lucrative inter-governmental contract that anyone has ever conceived of. Everything Musk has been involved with since PayPal has only been possible through federal subsidies and contracts.

[deleted]
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