Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 • Hacker News Board

Re: Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025

#51

Post by TheAlchemist » Wed, Aug 28, 2024, 9:37 PM UTC

averageRoyalty wrote: post #43

dagmx wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a 401k or any kind of ETF investment? It’s highly unlikely you have zero investment in NVIDIA.

Most people in the world are not American. We have differing retirement plans and invest in local markets, or all sorts of international markets. The NASDAQ is one of many. Most people reading this will indeed have zero investment in Nvidia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_stock_exchanges

"One of many"... Nasdaq & Nyse have capitalization equivalent to pretty much the rest of the world.

Most people reading this, if they have any money in any stock exchange, they are directly or indirectly exposed to Nvidia, whether they like it or not.

Re: Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025

#52

Post by JumpCrisscross » Wed, Aug 28, 2024, 9:38 PM UTC

usaar333 wrote: post #40

smy20011 wrote: post #2

Numbers are impressive, not sure why it's down in AH.

The question is if they are impressive for a company worth $3.1 trillion. Annualizing this quarter's earnings it has a P/E of 45. And earnings "only" grew at 60% annualized, slower than in the past. (Revenue growth is also a bit slower as a percentage) So market likely sees decelerating growth which can't justify such a high P/E. e.g. if growth fell to say 30% YOY in a year, nvda would be seen as overvalued today.

> Annualizing this quarter's earnings it has a P/E of 45. And earnings "only" grew at 60% annualized, slower than in the past

That's a PEG ratio of 1.5 [1], below the S&P 500's forward 2.63 [2]. (EDIT: It's 1.4x [3].)

Wild times.

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp

[2] https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/spgi/price-ear...

[3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41384923

Re: Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025

#53

Post by InitialLastName » Wed, Aug 28, 2024, 9:38 PM UTC

zooq_ai wrote: post #20

zooq_ai wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

delusional to think it isn't

It's called 2nd / 3rd order effects. The entire Tech sector was propped up Nvidia and GenAI since Nov 2022. The bloodbath that would have ensued in the Tech sector (depressing salary and accelerating layoffs) would have been unfathomable. If you think the $4 Trillion created in the Tech sector since Nov 2022 didn't affect non-AI people positively, you are naive about how the economy works

The word "directly" is usually used to refer to first-order effects. 2nd and 3rd order effects are (by definition) indirect.

Re: Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025

#54

Post by TheAlchemist » Wed, Aug 28, 2024, 9:39 PM UTC

gz5 wrote: post #49

Forget about the market reaction for a minutes, which is always difficult to interpret. More holistically, aren't we underestimating their dev ecosystems (CUDA etc.)? Think of the dev ecosystem effects in all the various permutations, e.g. from Windows or Apple to AWS to more granular like PyTorch. Those advantages aren't easily eliminated just by more competitors or even 'better' competitors.

Reactions to earnings are always a bit random.

But holicistally, if you were to buy the entire Nvidia company today, even if those advantages continue untouched for the next 10 years, and competition doesn't catch up, and the AI boom continues ... you're still not getting your money back. That's how high the valuation is.

Re: Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025

#55

Post by averageRoyalty » Wed, Aug 28, 2024, 9:43 PM UTC

TheAlchemist wrote: post #51

averageRoyalty wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people in the world are not American. We have differing retirement plans and invest in local markets, or all sorts of international markets. The NASDAQ is one of many. Most people reading this will indeed have zero investment in Nvidia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_stock_exchanges "One of many"... Nasdaq & Nyse have capitalization equivalent to pretty much the rest of the world. Most people reading this, if they have any money in any stock exchange, they are directly or indirectly exposed to Nvidia, whether they like it or not.

Absolutely, but capitalisation does not necessarily reflect the quantity of individual investors.

If you're talking about the indirect impact of foreign stock markets on a local markets... Sure, I guess. But that's hardly in the spirit here. Any large company in many countries has an impact on markets local markets when they sway, but rarely in any significant way.

The majority of people on HN are not impacted in any meaningful way by Nvidia's stock price and have no direct (brokerage, retirement fund, etc) investment in them.

The assessments in further up comments that give context here are that we all either invest in Nvida unknowingly or have our employment/compensation tied to them. I highly doubt this is true for the majority of HN users.

Re: Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025

#56

Post by dagmx » Wed, Aug 28, 2024, 9:44 PM UTC

averageRoyalty wrote: post #43

dagmx wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a 401k or any kind of ETF investment? It’s highly unlikely you have zero investment in NVIDIA.

Most people in the world are not American. We have differing retirement plans and invest in local markets, or all sorts of international markets. The NASDAQ is one of many. Most people reading this will indeed have zero investment in Nvidia.

Nvidia is buyable by many international retirement plans, and/or affects international companies. It’s really hard to not be invested indirectly in them right now, even internationally unless your country has restrictions

Re: Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025

#57

Post by dagmx » Wed, Aug 28, 2024, 9:45 PM UTC

basiccalendar74 wrote: post #42

dagmx wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s because all the gargantuan numbers were relative to their slump year when they crashed hard. It was a stratospheric comeback but people who expected a linear trajectory from that are missing the context

hate how all YoY commentary completely ignores recession years like 2022 or boom years like 2021.

Yeah people really need to zoom out on their stock tickers more

Re: Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025

#58

Post by TheAlchemist » Wed, Aug 28, 2024, 9:56 PM UTC

averageRoyalty wrote: post #55

TheAlchemist wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_stock_exchanges "One of many"... Nasdaq & Nyse have capitalization equivalent to pretty much the rest of the world. Most people reading this, if they have any money in any stock exchange, they are directly or indirectly exposed to Nvidia, whether they like it or not.

Absolutely, but capitalisation does not necessarily reflect the quantity of individual investors. If you're talking about the indirect impact of foreign stock markets on a local markets... Sure, I guess. But that's hardly in the spirit here. Any large company in many countries has an impact on markets local markets when they sway, but rarely in any significant way. The majority of people on HN are not impacted in any…

But what's your argument ?

Unless I'm missing something, most of HN audience is working in a tech related field, isn't it ?

Re: Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025

#59

Post by jauntywundrkind » Wed, Aug 28, 2024, 9:57 PM UTC

gz5 wrote: post #49

Forget about the market reaction for a minutes, which is always difficult to interpret. More holistically, aren't we underestimating their dev ecosystems (CUDA etc.)? Think of the dev ecosystem effects in all the various permutations, e.g. from Windows or Apple to AWS to more granular like PyTorch. Those advantages aren't easily eliminated just by more competitors or even 'better' competitors.

Jim Keller calls CUDA NVidia's swamp (not their moat) and I think that's so so so accurate.

Nvidia's fief has a lot of folks in it, who've built sloppy stuff all over the place because they can. Most of that won't get replaced.

But the modern tooling like PyTorch and its underlying JAX doesn't need or care about this legacy. The future can build far more intimately & with deliberation to folks who haven't such large swamps around their ecosystems. We can tune systems more efficiently & carefully when our vendors don't keep us so so far away from the core hardware. Nvidia has to keep maintaining this huge footprint of software, keep it going themselves, supporting a vast legacy, while everyone else gets to innovate forward, with much better access to the hardware.

Re: Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025

#60

Post by JumpCrisscross » Wed, Aug 28, 2024, 10:01 PM UTC

smy20011 wrote: post #2

Numbers are impressive, not sure why it's down in AH.

> not sure why it's down in AH

It could be due to gross margins, though they're pretty much in line with estimates [1]. I'd guess it's noise from options rebalancing [2].

[1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-forecasts-third-qu...

[2] https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-results-could-spur...