Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree with what you say above, but my perception is that most people still view the current crop of models as a step or two away from superintelligence. That superintelligence, or AGI, is a matter of continued improvement along the current lines, rather than along entirely different lines.
I don't think we can really say what path would lead to superintelligence (for whichever definition you desire) in the near future. Perhaps it is technically possible to achieve merely by making an embodied agent with enough different tricks in a single model (which I see as a matter of continued improvement along current lines), or maybe it requires several new things we haven't conceived yet. Personally, my area of…
Thanks for the link to Vinge's thing - I hadn't read that. Shame he didn't get the superintelligence within thirty years of 1993 and died in 2024. Still soonish. I've always been interested in physics and have a hunch that we can't figure things like quantum gravity due to mind limitations. If an AI could do that that would really be superintelligence.