Live data from Hacker News

Will we ever get fusion power?

construction-physics.com

51–60 of 309 posts

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#51
post #47
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> all the power to everything from small remote weather stations through houses to large islands Not without very large capacity gas/etc. plants available on standby (unless you’re fine with will below 99% availability)

We have to get fine with below 99% availability.

[deleted]

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#52
post #47
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> all the power to everything from small remote weather stations through houses to large islands Not without very large capacity gas/etc. plants available on standby (unless you’re fine with will below 99% availability)

We have to get fine with below 99% availability.

Don't take this the wrong way, but I envy your naivete. You are extremely optimistic about people and politics.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#53
post #44

We already have a zero maintenance fusion power plant that will last billions of years and that outputs millions of times more energy per second than humanity uses in a year. We already have technology that can take the electromagnetic waves this fusion power plant produces and directly convert it into electricity without needing pesky intermediaries like boiling water to turn a turbine. This technology is relatively…

[flagged]

I think claiming that it is an ecological disaster is catastrophizing at best and certainly subjective. The ecological impacts involved in coal mining, oil drilling et al., are much worse than installing some solar panels that can easily be ripped out and let nature recover the land if we so wanted.

Humanity will get the energy in one form or another, solar panels certainly seems less damaging than fossil fuels. The land will either be dug up for resources, or paved away for a power plant regardless. In addition, solar panels can be put up basically everywhere in an urban environment - an area already "destroyed" by human occupation - there are many many viable locations for solar outside of deserted wastelands.

   replacing it with endless sheets of silicon wafers literally injected with heavy metals of your preference, be it gallium or cadmium or arsenic(PVs are photodiodes; it's created by doping silicon coated substrates), which is polar opposite of environmentalist attitude.
Doped silicon is a solid and stable material - it can't leach out into the environment. In addition, the dopants are in very low concentration (on the order of 1 atom per million), you can ground the silicon to dust and not make a significant impact to the soil's concentration of the dopants. Also, gallium/cadmium/arsenic are not common dopants for silicon based photovoltaics, so you might be conflating dopants and GaAs based PVs, which are not used in large installations due to their cost. Silicon is cheap, plentiful, and safe.

   basically zero environmental resistance too[2] and don't last a year. In case it's not clear, `less than a year` is at most 10% of a decade.
This is blatantly false. The vast majority of solar panel installations last longer than a year. Is your point that nature will find a way to destroy a man made creation therefore it is a poor choice? Sorry to say that NOTHING is immune to the whims of the environment.

   Conversion efficiency of solar panels is also capped to ~30% by "chemistry" of Si-based PV, which is lower than even typical hybrid ICE cars.
The conversion efficiency of most power plants are limited by the Carnot cycle - and in practice are about ~40% efficient. So yes - while a Si only panel that only captures that single bandgap is capped at about ~29% - most forms of power generation are not THAT much more efficient relative to the complexity and cost of operation. There are no other commercially viable forms of energy generation that is a solid state material with no moving parts.

  Solar cells had only ever worked in extremely mild climate such as California, surfaces of Mars, and inner orbits[3] of Solar system. There's no prospect that that will change soon.
I would not say Mars has an "extremely mild climate". I certainly would not go outside in my beach outfit. Solar cells work basically anywhere where the sun shines.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#54

There’s a fusion reaction in the sky. All you have to do is harvest it. If you want to bring a fusion reaction home you have to deal with pesky things like INSANE AMOUNTS OF HEAT. Luckily the sky furnace is safely surrounded by 93M miles of insulting vacuum rendering the radiation harmless and even pleasant. We have a handy-dandy magnetic shield to handle surges, and atmospheric buffer for anything that sneaks throug…

One way to improve upon the design is being able to capture the radiation from all sides of the reaction.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#55
post #33
post #28

The big problem is that we have funded fusion at "Fusion Never" levels. Had we shoved as much money at fusion as we have at, say, horizontal drilling for liquified dinosaurs, we'd have fusion right now .

Is that true of the Chinese?

Yes

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#56

There’s a fusion reaction in the sky. All you have to do is harvest it. If you want to bring a fusion reaction home you have to deal with pesky things like INSANE AMOUNTS OF HEAT. Luckily the sky furnace is safely surrounded by 93M miles of insulting vacuum rendering the radiation harmless and even pleasant. We have a handy-dandy magnetic shield to handle surges, and atmospheric buffer for anything that sneaks throug…

If it was that easy people would just do it, hm? Classic "HN commenter solves world problem after thinking about it for 5 seconds".

> insulting vacuum rendering the radiation harmless

Not even this is correct. Vacuum doesn't really "insulate" against radiation, at least not very effectively. It's the earth magnetic field and atmosphere that protects us. And even with that it's not harmless – surely you heard of "sunburn" and "skin cancer"?

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#57
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have to get fine with below 99% availability.

Don't take this the wrong way, but I envy your naivete. You are extremely optimistic about people and politics.

How so? To my ears, "we need to accept significant degradations in the availability of electricity" is a deeply pessimistic statement.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#58
post #40
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say it’s clear that solar panels are absolutely working extremely well today, at least as long as you don’t live too close to the poles. Renewables all together is growing faster than nuclear ever did. And solar is now a huge part of that. We have models where solar or solar+wind is providing all the power to everything from small remote weather stations through houses to large islands. Some small countries a…

> all the power to everything from small remote weather stations through houses to large islands Not without very large capacity gas/etc. plants available on standby (unless you’re fine with will below 99% availability)

Don't molten salt and similar energy storage technologies augur well for that?

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#59
post #24

"Ever" is a very long time. Will we get fusion power in the next few decades? I wouldn't bet on it, but I also wouldn't bet against it.

At this point I would bet against commercial fusion power plants. It was always questionable if they would be cost competitive with fission power plants, but now even those are being replaced by renewables and grid storage.

The bigger problem is that fusion plants aren't useful for making weapons. Fission plants were basically a side project of the nuclear arms race, which is why they're a dying industry now. The world already has all of the nuclear bombs it will ever need and despite all of the promises they never managed to compete on cost. It's so much easier and cheaper to install wind turbines, solar panels, and grid scale batteries that there will probably never be a market for a commercial fusion power plant.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#60

We already have a zero maintenance fusion power plant that will last billions of years and that outputs millions of times more energy per second than humanity uses in a year. We already have technology that can take the electromagnetic waves this fusion power plant produces and directly convert it into electricity without needing pesky intermediaries like boiling water to turn a turbine. This technology is relatively…

I think it's clear that solar panels, while working today, clearly haven't been able to solve today's problems, or else this discussion wouldn't be happening. But we should keep investing in them, one way or another. Similarly, we should keep investing in the prospect of commercially viable fusion reactors. The harnessing of fusion reactors would be instantly revolutionary as opposed to the incremental progress solar…

Grid scale storage has lagged behind solar and wind generation, but it's starting to catch up. By the time we have a viable commercial fusion power plant all of the grid storage issues will have been long since solved.
Post reply on HN