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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#51

Post by stefanve »

Onavo wrote: post #33
disillusioned wrote: post #26

I just completed my trial and it was better than I expected, and yet still utterly terrifying at bits. It still feels _very_ far off from being able to safely navigate and negotiate only medium-complexity environments, but maybe the vaunted 12.4/12.5 update will change all of that. For example: * It still won't change in or out of a solid line HOV lane here in Arizona. Feels like an easy fix, but there it is * I have…

The pre 12.5 stack uses traditional C++ conditionals together with computer vision for highway driving. 12.5 and after is the a single stack setup (at least that's what Musk claims). The 12.3.6 (or the 12.4.1 that's being trialed right now) is pretty much the current production state of the art for Tesla street level (not highway) single stack self driving where the steering commands are directly issued by the neural…

While it sounds impressive from a technical point of view it doesn’t say anything about how much better it is or if it is now truly full self driving.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#52

Post by mrtksn »

choeger wrote: post #42

What everyone seems to be ignoring when it comes to autonomous cars is that the last 1% or 0.1% or whatever remains unsolvable for "AI" might not really matter. We can change roads, ffs! At the bare minimum, we could fence off difficult areas and force manual driving. Once many people own an autonomous car, there will be pressure to make roads safe and convenient for them. Phantom braking for instance, is only a safe…

Road infrastructure is crazy expensive and even if you are willing to rebuild it for the autonomous cars instead of building a mass transit, you will have either segregated roads for autonomous cars(which is essentially individualistic mass transit) or you will have mixed car infrastructure.

The US has a road network of 7 million km and apparently it costs about 1 million to 45 million[0] to build 1 km of road, depending on the nature of the infrastructure. Obviously the higher end is for large roads built in city centres but even at the lower end of the cost spectrum its crazy expensive.

IMHO doesn't make sense to rebuild the infrastructure for autonomous cars. If you re going to rebuild the infrastructure you can be better of to built continent wide mass transit. At least you won't need parking lots.

[0] https://compassinternational.net/order-magnitude-road-highwa...

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#53

Post by what-the-grump »

therouwboat wrote: post #23
nelsonic wrote: post #13

The author of this article doesn't understand how continuous improvement in software works ... Saying that it will "never" work is myopic. Never bet against Moores Law or Elon! As a Tesla M3 owner (in Europe where we don't have FSD yet) I cannot wait to have it for long road trips on highways where I want to relax and have a "copilot" do some of the "thinking" & driving for me. Yes, there are still some instances of…

"With FSD, you still need to pay attention but now there’s the additional cognitive load to monitor an unpredictable system over which you don’t have direct control. Forget about just being focused, you need to be hyper-focused" Driving with FSD on seems to be more stressful than just driving.

Driving with FSD in mid to moderate traffic is more stressful. Usually drop fsd to AP.

Driving with FSD on empty roads is very enjoyable and whenever it decides to do something you can recover/correct with no stress.

Driving in poor conditions with FSD feels safer, it sees better than me in the dark and rain for sure.

Driving with fsd in heavy traffic about the same as driving a car yourself, this where I usually drop back to AP.

Is driving my tesla easier or harder than another vehicle? It’s much much easier than driving my ICE suv. But from a pure FSD perspective, if the car didn’t have AP I believe my opinion would not be the same.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#54

Post by deng »

And please keep in mind that this is pretty much in the optimal settings for FSD: great weather, huge streets, everything is as "car friendly" as it gets. I'd like to see FSD navigating an old Italian city, there's just no way. Even in car-friendly Germany you very often have streets with side-parking, which are too narrow to fit two cars, you need to communicate with oncoming cars, for instance by waving or flashing your headlights, swerve into free spaces on the side to let other cars go through, watch out for cyclists overtaking you from both sides, etc. And this is not even mentioning the weather... So this robotaxi thing might eventually work in some US cities, but pretty much nowhere else.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#55

Post by ZeroGravitas »

roenxi wrote: post #41
Larrikin wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you aren't in the cult of personality, a lot of people need to justify it at this point. I have no interest in buying a Tesla unless he divests fully. Everyone else seems to be catching up without lying about their projected capabilities and I don't need an EV today. I don't want to give him any more money than he has.

How many CEOs & owners have you vetted when making purchases? CEOs are a pretty shady crew as a class of people; it attracts people who like power and they are the dangerous ones. Or people who are single-minded in their focus and they tend to come with a raft of unusual views and personalities. And even after vetting, you're probably just biasing your purchases in favour of CEOs who do image management rather than p…

"It is better to be silent and be thought a sociopathic fascist, than to speak and remove all doubt!" -- Mark Twain

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#56

Post by Larrikin »

roenxi wrote: post #41
Larrikin wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you aren't in the cult of personality, a lot of people need to justify it at this point. I have no interest in buying a Tesla unless he divests fully. Everyone else seems to be catching up without lying about their projected capabilities and I don't need an EV today. I don't want to give him any more money than he has.

How many CEOs & owners have you vetted when making purchases? CEOs are a pretty shady crew as a class of people; it attracts people who like power and they are the dangerous ones. Or people who are single-minded in their focus and they tend to come with a raft of unusual views and personalities. And even after vetting, you're probably just biasing your purchases in favour of CEOs who do image management rather than p…

I don't know the name of a single other car company's CEO. If they are in the news or a topic of conversation among friends for a questionable or objectionable reason, I will evaluate them. Terrible people can be unknown for long periods of time, but it's not worth my time to investigate everyone just to be fair to Musk and his fans.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#57

Post by [deleted] »

zeeZ wrote: post #7

> I assume it would have corrected itself eventually and gone back onto the main lane. > Another case where I’m sure it would have corrected itself eventually [...]. Why? That's some bold assumptions. If it's going to fail, let it (as long as it's safe and legal), and see what it actually does.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#58

Post by tsimionescu »

jlmorton wrote: post #12

> For the second test, my wife reluctantly gave me permission to try out FSD for interstate driving, which should be its best case scenario. Except this isn't the new FSD stack, it's the old one. It's a fair criticism of the current offering, but it's not much evidence against a future robotaxi.

Is that the old FSD stack that, starting with 2018, has been "ready for fully autonomous driving where you can take a nap by this time next year", according to the CEO of the company?

Why are people still hopeful for Tesla FSD when other companies are so, so far ahead already?

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#59

Post by forgot-im-old »

acchow wrote: post #46
georgeg23 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So isn't that a deep problem to his FSD architecture?

No. For the easy 99.999% of driving they keep very little of the training data. Basically you want to minimize manual interventions (aka disengagements). When the driver intervenes, they keep a few seconds before (30 seconds?) and after that intervention and add that to the training data. So their training data is basically just the exceptional cases. They need to just make sure they don’t overfit so that the learned…

It's not clear that a bunch of cascaded rectified linear functions will every generalize to near 100%. The error floor is at a dangerous level regardless of training. AGI is needed to tackle the final 1%>

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#60

Post by monkfish328 »

ThereIsNoWorry wrote: post #48

Almost a decade ago I used to be a hyped up HS graduate fully spoon-fed the AI hype bubble (after 2012, the first "deep" learning breakthroughs for image classification started hyping the game up). I studied at a top 5 university for CS and specialised in deep learning. Three years ago I finished, rejected a (some would call "prestigious") PhD offer and was thoroughly let down by how "stupid" AI is. For the last 2-is…

Or perhaps statistics is reasoning generalised? E.T. Jayne's classic on this makes the case, I'd encourage reading the first chapter - https://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Science-T-Jaynes/d....
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