Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro • Hacker News Board

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#51

Post by JumpCrisscross » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:50 PM UTC

zrn900 wrote: post #47

lawn wrote: post #4

It's mentioned in the article, but the reaction to the sanctions seem fairly severe? Russian banks went down en masse, the spread of foreign currencies was larger than the official numbers, and people were queuing outside the banks to withdraw money. Of course, the Russian narrative is that this will hurt the west more than it will hurt Russia...

> Russian banks went down en masse Huh? In what world? > the Russian narrative Dont say such things after saying stuff like you just did above. You people live in such a delusional false reality propagated by your establishment that its worse than 2003. Ukraine is 'winning' despite losing, Russia is sinking despite becoming the 4th largest economy and having major increase in real wages, US economy is 'doing fine' ev…

> Russia is sinking despite becoming the 4th largest economy

Sixth [1] to 11th [2], on track to being eclipsed by Indonesia and Mexico.

> having major increase in real wages

Real wages are up, yes, but real disposable income is flat [3].

This isn’t uncommon in a war footing [4]. Labour and necessities are diverted to the front, raising prices for both. That squeezes disposable income, which moderates price growth in luxuries. The effect, if you’re measuring with a pre-war basket of goods, is rising real earnings and falling disposable income.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PP... PPP

[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(no...

[3] https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/putin-grows-war-econo...

[4] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nazi_Germany

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#52

Post by psunavy03 » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:51 PM UTC

lolinder wrote: post #5

mark_l_watson wrote: post #2

As a US taxpayer I don’t particularly like this. We rely on being the world’s reserve currency, and many things get more expensive, e.g., serving government debt. In 2000-2001 we were able to effectively bully three countries that were talking about moving away from the US dollar, but I am not sure if that works now. I have a lot of personal theories how my country can best cope with future geopolitical adjustments.…

> If I were in charge, the first thing I would do would be to close most foreign military bases. We can have the strongest military in the world and have them largely based in the US. The strategy behind the foreign military bases isn't just about having the strongest military in the world. They serve two purposes: First, we want to preserve the credible threat of boots on the ground anywhere in the world within just…

It's not just where we have troops stationed. It's also the places where the US either owns/leases the place or else has an access agreement with the host country in a crisis. Beyond the speed of deployment you mentioned, it also matters how many countries in theater have given us permission to either use their soil to flow troops and supplies through or even attack from.

The more restrictive the access agreements are, the less options military planners and operations officers have and the more predictable we are to the enemy, who knows that he only has to defend against the evil Yankees coming from country X, not country Y or Z. And that because Country X is so far away, we need to burn additional logistical assets to support the shooters.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#53

Post by mrtksn » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:52 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #42

mrtksn wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like your optimism but this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society and if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff. Everything is made in China, the factories are there even if the west holds rights and patents etc. The west is services heavy but there's little this expertise can do anything about blowing up people and vehicles.

> this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society American manufacturing is at an all-time high [1]. Are you conflating manufacturing employment with power? > if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff Uh, I’m fairly deep into drone manufacturing in America. This is multi-level nonsense. One: you’re confusing quadcopters with military dro…

All time high as of producing small amount of very expensive stuff won't be good if can't produce huge amount of basic stuff.

Is USA capable of producing huge number of electric motors? Other "not profitable enough to produce here" stuff?

Remember how the west wasn't able to deliver enough artillery shells simply because it can't produce enough? Now it might be ramping up in the shells department but there's so many things that the west can't make anymore in large quantities.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#54

Post by pmontra » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:52 PM UTC

mrtksn wrote: post #27

ajuc wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With markup. That slows down the economy and makes everything more expansive. Whcih makes the economy not competetive on the international market. Keep it that way for a few decades and you get North Korea.

A few decades of war isn't helping anybody. Unlike the Russia, western politics shift because everything in the west is also getting expensive. Europe has seen this already.

Western politics always shifted because nobody is particularly good at it. After 4 or 5 years or small multiples of them the opposition parties take over, then go back to opposition. New parties are born sometimes and take over or don't. The overall picture is a USA aligned continent since 1945 or the 90s according to the country.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#55

Post by SXX » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:53 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #32

SXX wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately nothing really happened in Russia because the only meaningful exchange rate of RUB / USD pair is not set by some central bank or exchange, but crypto market: https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html There was drop of like 5-10%, but that's nothing special. You can still go and buy as much USDT as you want for reasonable price. And this is what majority of normal people use to move money…

> sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia Correct. Long term, the effects of a materially-high real interest rate, capital controls and the demographic and technological degradation of sanctions and the war directly are starting to show their teeth. Sanctions won’t stop this war. But they’ll facilitate degrading Russia so it is in no position to…

Yeah. But nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions and unlikely to happen anytime soon. At current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely just by pumping money into economy and making society pay for it.

Old soviet joke:

  Dad: Looks like vodka will become more expensive.
  Son: Dad, are you going to drink less now?
  Dad: No, son, now you are going to eat less.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#56

Post by wnevets » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:53 PM UTC

zrn900 wrote: post #47

lawn wrote: post #4

It's mentioned in the article, but the reaction to the sanctions seem fairly severe? Russian banks went down en masse, the spread of foreign currencies was larger than the official numbers, and people were queuing outside the banks to withdraw money. Of course, the Russian narrative is that this will hurt the west more than it will hurt Russia...

> Russian banks went down en masse Huh? In what world? > the Russian narrative Dont say such things after saying stuff like you just did above. You people live in such a delusional false reality propagated by your establishment that its worse than 2003. Ukraine is 'winning' despite losing, Russia is sinking despite becoming the 4th largest economy and having major increase in real wages, US economy is 'doing fine' ev…

ignorance is strength

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#57

Post by JumpCrisscross » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:53 PM UTC

SXX wrote: post #55

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia Correct. Long term, the effects of a materially-high real interest rate, capital controls and the demographic and technological degradation of sanctions and the war directly are starting to show their teeth. Sanctions won’t stop this war. But they’ll facilitate degrading Russia so it is in no position to…

Yeah. But nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions and unlikely to happen anytime soon. At current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely just by pumping money into economy and making society pay for it. Old soviet joke: Dad: Looks like vodka will become more expensive. Son: Dad, are you going to drink less now? Dad: No, son, now you are going to eat less.

> nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions

The semiconductor shortage is militarily relevant, as are the increasing delays in repairing damaged refineries and power plants [1].

> current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely

Setting aside demographics, his war engine relies on oil, an increasingly-stranded asset [2]. (Over geopolitical time scales.)

Putin is blowing grandma’s inheritance on fast cars.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-ham...

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-...

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#58

Post by lolinder » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:55 PM UTC

mark_l_watson wrote: post #15

lolinder wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I were in charge, the first thing I would do would be to close most foreign military bases. We can have the strongest military in the world and have them largely based in the US. The strategy behind the foreign military bases isn't just about having the strongest military in the world. They serve two purposes: First, we want to preserve the credible threat of boots on the ground anywhere in the world within just…

I don’t argue with your main points except to question if it is worth the money now. I was in the defense industry for 25 years, and my comments above are just my opinions on what is in the best interests of the US taxpayer today in 2024. I am questioning the value of having 800 military bases in foreign countries in 2024. What was once a good idea may not be worth the money and resources now. What does the US give u…

> What does the US give up not protecting the rest of the world?

The very real probability of no longer having the strongest military in the world, which is something you express that you are still in favor of.

We already tried the strategy of waiting to intervene until Europe had already been violently consolidated into one enormous and war-obsessed power. Even if you don't care about the lives of people who live outside of the US at all (which, to be clear, I do care about), that mistake cost us alone over 400k lives to fix. And do you really think that if we'd just left Hitler alone he would have been too intimidated to attack us after he'd finished mopping up Europe?

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#59

Post by criddell » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:58 PM UTC

init2null wrote: post #24

wnevets wrote: post #11

China is gonna keep buying up Russia for pennies on the dollar. I wouldn't be shocked if we start seeing actual territory switch from Russia to China in the next few years.

It will be tough for Russian pride to see their nation sink to the level of North Korea as a dependent of China. Given the brilliance of the USSR's scientific developments, it's a long way down.

I think it's going to be closer to how a bunch of countries in Africa are being hollowed out by China.

Russia is loaded with natural resources and I expect control of most of them to fall into Chinese hands over the next 20-50 years. Putin may have wanted to reassemble the USSR but in reality he's weakening Russia so much China will eventually control all of it.

North Korea, on the other hand, doesn't have much to offer China.

On the other hand, most of what I know about these regions I know from podcasts so I could be entirely wrong about all of it.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#60

Post by lolinder » Thu, Jun 13, 2024, 7:59 PM UTC

mark_l_watson wrote: post #50

psunavy03 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you really were in the defense industry for 25 years and you're making takes like that, I can only imagine you never worked on anything of consequence. This is like saying you worked in tech for 25 years and don't get what the big deal is about version control or CI/CD. Or at least that you have no idea how your business makes money or what your users want your code for. Explainable for a new hire, but for a 25-ye…

I once spent 25 minutes having coffee with the CIA director (just the two of us) and once Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird slapped me on the back after I gave a presentation, giving me effectively an ‘atta-boy’. I was just a computer programmer, but I did OK. My friend, times change, and we need to re-evaluate the world situation, and what is in our best interests. Someone in this thread mentioned England’s reach of…

> giving me effectively an ‘atta-boy’. I was just a computer programmer, but I did OK.

I'm a highly respected computer programmer in my organization, but if I went in to the CEO and tried to advise him that his business strategy was wrong and he needed to do something different, he'd listen to me politely and then explain all the ways in which I misunderstood the situation. And he would be correct.

You can have been a very good computer programmer within the DoD without having absorbed enough understanding of the geopolitical situation to have credible expertise in military strategy.