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Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

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Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#51

Post by littlestymaar »

swalsh wrote: post #37
unoti wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? Yes, but the thing is: it takes time to write the software. We had proof of concepts for some serious game-changing things written and working over a year ago, but organizationally it takes a long time to write and deploy the things and get them into production. Even if LLM's didn't get any better than t…

Running into this same problem, the tech is progressing WAY faster than the org can transform to use the tech. I'm betting we end up transforming by aquiring a company that completed the transformation before us, and letting them run the show. The downside is I see a lot more job destruction that route vs the slow route we're currently on.

> Running into this same problem, the tech is progressing WAY faster than the org can transform to use the tech

It has always been the case. As a society we are still very far from having harnessed the full power of 90s era computers. Companies routinely pay hundreds of workers and even executives, to do things that computers are better at doing. For instance: managing plannings in big organizations.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#52

Post by gizajob »

adventured wrote: post #27
gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

There will be a pullback after the initial irrational exuberance, and the big spenders on Nvidia cards will pull back on that spending as the expected returns are not realized (or not fully realized). Variations of this story repeat over and over and over again throughout the decades of tech. After the pullback, given some time, AI will realize significant real world value and the overall market will be far larger (1…

Yeah good thinking. Does seem like it’s turning into an analogous situation to Cisco, and I feel like we will actually need a quantum leap on the software side of AI (again) for the hardware sales to sustain the revenue growth.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#53

Post by croes »

gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

AI will help to totally crush all the CO2 emission targets of Google, MS etc.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#54

Post by riku_iki »

hiddencost wrote: post #8
gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

Yes. For the last 20 years. Many of the largest applications aren't ones you're aware of or ever see directly. Most of Google's revenue, to pick one example. For every flashy start-up or cool open source project, there is an army of people quietly delivering 10% relative improvements that drive $100M revenue lift in their particular niche at a huge company.

> Most of Google's revenue, to pick one example. For every flashy start-up or cool open source project, there is an army of people quietly delivering 10% relative improvements that drive $100M revenue lift in their particular niche at a huge company.

this is true for previous generations of deep learning but still not clear for current GenAI wave.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#55

Post by purplerabbit »

Groq's chips are 10x faster and 100% US-sourced. Nvidia has existential threats afoot.

I don't see our compute appetite going anywhere generally. But 90% of that will be for AI compute. Nvidia without that is, well... rekd.

(I'm an ignorant fool just reflecting what I've seen. If someone has better perspective, please enlighten me.)

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#56

Post by N0b8ez »

dvt wrote: post #10
gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

> Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? I'm actually quite bearish on AI on the very long term (and as a trained philosopher, I don't buy into the whole AGI nonsense), but I do think AI will redefine how we interact with our computers/devices in the short-to-medium term. These days, everyone's too enamored with the generative aspect (which is,…

Are you thinking of Searle's Chinese Room or another famous thought experiment? Is your issue that an AGI wouldn't really "understand" concepts, despite being better at using them than a human?

>and as a trained philosopher, I don't buy into the whole AGI nonsense

It's hard to imagine Socrates using this form of argument.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#57

Post by drewcoo »

gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

> o you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation?

Stock valuation is based on speculation. I don't think I understand the question.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#58

Post by N0b8ez »

gizajob wrote: post #24
dvt wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? I'm actually quite bearish on AI on the very long term (and as a trained philosopher, I don't buy into the whole AGI nonsense), but I do think AI will redefine how we interact with our computers/devices in the short-to-medium term. These days, everyone's too enamored with the generative aspect (which is,…

Funnily enough my bachelors thesis was “Wittgensteinian problems for Artificial General Intelligence” so I also have grounds for being bearish, even though I respect what is happening at the moment and have hope for the future.

Is the Wittgensteinian problem that the AGI wouldn't understand concepts like we do, or is the problem that it wouldn't be able to use them better than a human?

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#59

Post by ben_w »

gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

> Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation?

I think that's the wrong question: "impact" is necessary but not sufficient for "valuation", as the latter also requires you to not have much competition driving down your margin, and there's a lot of competition in AI software.

NVIDIA, being the metaphorical shovel-seller, can probably justify current valuations from current or near-term hardware sales… but I'm not sure the people spending the money to buy NVIDIA hardware to train their own models can justify those expenses, which means I'm expecting NVIDIA's sales to collapse when the "not invented here" bubble collapses and everyone becomes willing to use an existing off-the-shelf AI.

> Is it changing your life?

Yes:

1. LLMs by being the easy first step on side-projects I'd otherwise not have time to get into

2. Google Translate in general

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#60

Post by bloopernova »

jandrese wrote: post #36
gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

Right now AI is in the part of the hype cycle where we are in the first knee of the S curve and people are drawing straight lines from that to predict the future. I've seen so much ridiculous hype about AI becoming godlike super-geniuses before the decade is out that I have to wonder if any of these people have tried using AI for real work and not just flashy demos.

It's just like the hype about self driving vehicles. 5 years ago I had bought into the hype and thought that most long haul truck drivers would be out of work by now.
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