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The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

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Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#51

Post by rqtwteye »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #41
segasaturn wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I particularly remember the mainstream media in the US cheerleading for the war and shouting down anybody who raised doubts as being "with the terrorists". The truth is that the intelligence never mattered, it was always meant as an act of revenge against the Arab/Muslim world for 9/11 and a settling of scores from the 90s Gulf War.

I remember when the US invaded Iraq(II) it was treated like a party. The media loved it, it was like a football game. And when out to eat, I saw a lot of Americans were loving it , it was entertainment. Shock and Awe, it was spectacle.

The US definitely got very good at selling wars in the last decades. I remember being fascinated with the cool videos of "surgical strikes" against Iraq in 1991. Only later I read reports that a lot of the strikes weren't exactly surgical and killed thousands of civilians.

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#52

Post by FrustratedMonky »

bluejekyll wrote: post #40
throw0101d wrote: post #16

Somewhat meta-ish question about the Vietnam War for someone who has perhaps studied the topic more: Did the US "lose" the war or did they simply stop 'bothering' with it? In 1973 there was the Paris Peace Accords that crystallized (Communist) North Vietnam and (non-communist) South Vietnam, just like the two Koreas. Then in 1975 the north invaded: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_spring_offensive and the US (mil…

It’s important to remember that the war in Vietnam had begun as a war of independence from the French. The US should never have gotten involved, and only did so because of the fear of the spread of Communism. We should never have gotten involved.

Yeah, the typical US Citizen completely forgets the French part of Vietnamese history. The US was like the French's big and tough friend, that got dragged into it.

Really, the US is all about the under dog fighting for independence, isn't that the US Mythos? We should have been rooting for the Vietnamese, not bombing them.

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#53

Post by no_wizard »

pjc50 wrote: post #36
throw0101d wrote: post #16

Somewhat meta-ish question about the Vietnam War for someone who has perhaps studied the topic more: Did the US "lose" the war or did they simply stop 'bothering' with it? In 1973 there was the Paris Peace Accords that crystallized (Communist) North Vietnam and (non-communist) South Vietnam, just like the two Koreas. Then in 1975 the north invaded: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_spring_offensive and the US (mil…

Rather like Afghanistan, you can prop up a government that has no real legitimacy outside the capital for as long as you're prepared to pay for it, but then it collapses. I do not fully understand the backstory, but the Vienamese seem to have done OK out of the "Communist" victory. It's a very different place from North Korea. Alternate counterfactual: is there a route through history where https://en.wikipedia.org/w…

>the Vienamese seem to have done OK out of the "Communist" victory

They have largely followed the Chinese model of economic development, via a policy of Đổi Mới[0][1] adopted in 1986 and has since continued with various reforms in the 1990s as well. This is persistent today in how Vietnamese economic policy is driven, as far as I can tell

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%90%E1%BB%95i_M%E1%BB%9Bi

[1]: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/rp2008-84.pdf

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#54

Post by steve_adams_86 »

rqtwteye wrote: post #51
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when the US invaded Iraq(II) it was treated like a party. The media loved it, it was like a football game. And when out to eat, I saw a lot of Americans were loving it , it was entertainment. Shock and Awe, it was spectacle.

The US definitely got very good at selling wars in the last decades. I remember being fascinated with the cool videos of "surgical strikes" against Iraq in 1991. Only later I read reports that a lot of the strikes weren't exactly surgical and killed thousands of civilians.

Strikes included hospitals, places of worship, civilian homes, and so on. I had no idea at the time either.

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#55

Post by II2II »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #41
segasaturn wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I particularly remember the mainstream media in the US cheerleading for the war and shouting down anybody who raised doubts as being "with the terrorists". The truth is that the intelligence never mattered, it was always meant as an act of revenge against the Arab/Muslim world for 9/11 and a settling of scores from the 90s Gulf War.

I remember when the US invaded Iraq(II) it was treated like a party. The media loved it, it was like a football game. And when out to eat, I saw a lot of Americans were loving it , it was entertainment. Shock and Awe, it was spectacle.

It always irked me when people called it the Second Iraq War. From my recollections, people always referred to the war in the 90's as the Persian Gulf War and it was instigated by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. The war in the 2000's struck me as the poorly justified invasion of another nation. While there were legitimate grievances against Iraq, they were not the types of grievances that should escalate into war.

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#56

Post by chasil »

throw0101d wrote: post #16

Somewhat meta-ish question about the Vietnam War for someone who has perhaps studied the topic more: Did the US "lose" the war or did they simply stop 'bothering' with it? In 1973 there was the Paris Peace Accords that crystallized (Communist) North Vietnam and (non-communist) South Vietnam, just like the two Koreas. Then in 1975 the north invaded: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_spring_offensive and the US (mil…

I am not deeply read on this subject, but the loss of President Diem profoundly impacted South Vietnam in an adverse manner for the U.S. efforts to maintain the country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ngo_Dinh_Diem

There was also great turmoil in the U.S. at the time (as we remember with the approaching DNC convention in Chicago). Nixon implemented an effort to distance the U.S. from the situation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnamization

Watergate closed the door on efforts to maintain South Vietnam.

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#57

Post by tonetegeatinst »

firesteelrain wrote: post #9

What I gathered from this is that not the INR is full of oracles or people who have the magic skill to foresee the future but rather really smart people who based on past experience can see patterns of behavior and infer future state from that. Then, they are so small they are required to innovate and iterate on intelligence.

New defense budget includes a large portion dedicated to orbs for pondering raw intelligence and data.

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#58

Post by FrustratedMonky »

II2II wrote: post #55
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when the US invaded Iraq(II) it was treated like a party. The media loved it, it was like a football game. And when out to eat, I saw a lot of Americans were loving it , it was entertainment. Shock and Awe, it was spectacle.

It always irked me when people called it the Second Iraq War. From my recollections, people always referred to the war in the 90's as the Persian Gulf War and it was instigated by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. The war in the 2000's struck me as the poorly justified invasion of another nation. While there were legitimate grievances against Iraq, they were not the types of grievances that should escalate into war.

I think it is just a colloquial numbering for clarity. That is why I do it.

The 90's war was with Iraq, that is who we were fighting against, and sometimes it is just easier to number them to differentiate from the one in the 2000's.

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#59

Post by PNewling »

comfysocks wrote: post #23

Maybe it’s because “nobody’s heard of them” and “nobody listens to them” that they are allowed to come to correct conclusions? Maybe if they were as influential as the CIA they would get a ton of political pressure to throw out their analysis and echo the current administration’s foregone conclusions?

This is an interesting take, that I think might hold some water. With a budget of $59 million (according to wikipedia), they are definitely a small entity in the grand scheme of the US Government. Big enough to run their reports, but not big enough to stop them from being ignored if they are the only (or one of the few) going against the popular consensus.

Also, while I am not anywhere familiar with them enough to know their overall track record, even if they did correctly predict the topics listed in the article 'correct', that is three items in 60 years? I'd be curious to know how their intelligence has compared with the numerous things inbetween. That would be a huge lift though.

Still fun/interesting to learn about these agencies, even as someone who grew up in the US and took higher level classes on US Government, you never really get a complete view everything.

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