When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)
51–60 of 186 posts
Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)
#52The estimate for how many operations per second the brain does is quite a wild guess. It starts out very reasonable, estimating the amount of information the eyes feed to the brain. But from there on it's really just a wild guess. We don't know how the brain processes visual input, we don't know what the fundamental unit of processing in the brain is, or if there is one.
It's possible that I'm not aware of some breakthroughs on this topic, though.
Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)
#53Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)
#54Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)
#55Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)
#56Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)
#57Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)
#58The estimate for how many operations per second the brain does is quite a wild guess. It starts out very reasonable, estimating the amount of information the eyes feed to the brain. But from there on it's really just a wild guess. We don't know how the brain processes visual input, we don't know what the fundamental unit of processing in the brain is, or if there is one.
But I have no idea what is known nowadays.
Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)
#59Moravec's plots (from 1998!) are looking more and more like prophecies: https://www.jetpress.org/volume1/power_075.jpg https://www.jetpress.org/volume1/All_things_075.jpg
What I find incredible about the progress of computing power is that there isn't anything that actually makes Moore's law a given. Engineers keep discovering advances in materials science and manufacturing that enable advancements on such a consistent pace. Is this a fluke? Luck? What enables this?
It's basically akin to something like the Manhattan Project or the Apollo Program, just something initiated by private corporations rather than a government-directed investment program.
Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)
#60Moravac (in the linked paper): "In both cases, the evidence for an intelligent mind lies in the machine's performance, not its makeup." Do you agree? I'm much less keen to ascribe "intelligence" to large, pretrained language models given that I know how primitive their training regime is compared to a scenario where I might have been "blended" by their ability to "chat" (double quote here since I know ChatGPT and the…
Also, take this more advanced example: if you built a sufficiently large lookup table (of course, you need (possibly human) intelligence to build it, and it would be of impractical size), you can build a chatbot completely indistinguishable from a human that nonetheless doesn't seem like it really is intelligent (or conscious for that matter). The only operations it would perform would be some sort of decoding of the input into an astronomically large number to retrieve from the lookup table, and then using some (possibly rudimentary) seeking apparatus to retrieve the content that corresponds to the input. Your input size can be arbitrarily large enabling arbitrarily long conversations. It seems that to judge intelligence we really need to examine the internals and look at their structure.
I have a hunch that our particular 'feeling of consciousness' stems from the massive interconnectivity of the brain. All sorts of neurons from around the brain have some activity all the time (I believe the brain's energy consumption doesn't vary greatly with activity, so we use it), and whatever we perceive goes through an enormous number of interconnected neurons (representing concepts, impressions, ideas, etc.); unlike typical CPU-based algorithms that process a somewhat large number (potentially 100s of millions) of steps sequentially. My intuition does seem to pair with modern neural architectures (i.e. they could have some consciousness?), but I really don't know how we could do this sort of judgement before understanding better the details of the brain and other properties of cognition. I think this is a very important research area, and I'm not sure we have enough people working on it or using the correct tools (it relies heavily on logic, philosophy and metaphysical arguments; as well as require personal insight from being conscious :) ).
[1] From sources I can't remember, and from wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test#Loebner_Prize