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Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report

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Re: Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report

#51

Post by nradov »

pyuser583 wrote: post #43
maxglute wrote: post #40

Sometimes I wonder if US leadership, above the paygrade of naval leadership, assume that large surface combatants likely won't be survivable in a peer war. Then they'd do exactly what they're doing now... stall naval projects and pivot. There's a lot of motivated naval lobbying decrying the state of US ship building, but we can see in semi that US leadership fine with pouring 100s of billions in urgent industrial pol…

The smart people seem to agree that submarine will be the most important naval vessels in the next war. Submarine operations, including production, are extremely hush-hush. Last I heard the US had two submarine fleets: the ones the Navy openly discusses, and the useful ones which are discussed in whispers. I like to think the hush-hush subs are being built and deployed en masse.

The US Navy might have secret programs for some small underwater combat drones but there are no "hush-hush subs". A modern SSN/SSBN costs billions of dollars and takes thousands of workers years to build. There's just no way to keep them secret. Some of the internal systems and capabilities are secret but the number of hulls is public knowledge.

Re: Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report

#52

Post by maxglute »

pyuser583 wrote: post #43
maxglute wrote: post #40

Sometimes I wonder if US leadership, above the paygrade of naval leadership, assume that large surface combatants likely won't be survivable in a peer war. Then they'd do exactly what they're doing now... stall naval projects and pivot. There's a lot of motivated naval lobbying decrying the state of US ship building, but we can see in semi that US leadership fine with pouring 100s of billions in urgent industrial pol…

The smart people seem to agree that submarine will be the most important naval vessels in the next war. Submarine operations, including production, are extremely hush-hush. Last I heard the US had two submarine fleets: the ones the Navy openly discusses, and the useful ones which are discussed in whispers. I like to think the hush-hush subs are being built and deployed en masse.

Submarines also suffering delays, but current USN subs still have enough lead enough that SSNX isn't urgent as updating surface combatants as long as current sub fleet is replaced at relative parity. I don't think there's secret fleet, dry docks are easy to monitor. Maybe some XLUUVs, that can be built in an enclosed plant and shuttled around.

I think more trying to figure out naval unmanned platforms, to see what future fleet composition will be, i.e. navy Force Design 2045 wants 370 manned ships, 150 unmanned, maybe better off with 300 manned and 200 unmanned.

Re: Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report

#53

Post by _boffin_ »

appplication wrote: post #44
pyuser583 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The smart people seem to agree that submarine will be the most important naval vessels in the next war. Submarine operations, including production, are extremely hush-hush. Last I heard the US had two submarine fleets: the ones the Navy openly discusses, and the useful ones which are discussed in whispers. I like to think the hush-hush subs are being built and deployed en masse.

Surface drones like the ones used in Ukraine are also not to be underestimated. Russia is struggling to combat these effectively, and even the US navy doesn’t have any specific technological answer to them at present.

I believe they’re actively testing microwave on at least one ship.

Re: Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report

#54

Post by somenameforme »

maxglute wrote: post #40

Sometimes I wonder if US leadership, above the paygrade of naval leadership, assume that large surface combatants likely won't be survivable in a peer war. Then they'd do exactly what they're doing now... stall naval projects and pivot. There's a lot of motivated naval lobbying decrying the state of US ship building, but we can see in semi that US leadership fine with pouring 100s of billions in urgent industrial pol…

IMO it's all about the money being the main motivating factor. With government contracts more money should mean you can do a better job - which is why these contracts are so large. But there's a conflicting motivation to 'generate value for shareholders.' And this is further confounded by conflicts of interest in oversight. Congress not only receives large donations from the military industrial complex, but is also literally invested in these companies, and also stands to work as 'consultants', lobbyists, and and the like after leaving office for 7+ figure salaries. So you get a system where so long as money's getting spent, everybody's pretty happy - and the more, the merrier.

It seems that in the past there was more ideologically (rather than financially) motivated leadership of many industries. One can see this today by comparing companies like SpaceX with Boeing. SpaceX is an ideologically driven company with a goal of colonizing Mars, headed by an eccentric engineer. Boeing is a financially driven company headed by an accountant. One has already revolutionized the entire space industry multiple times and is sending costs plummeting. The other has now spent tens of billions of dollars and well over a decade trying to rework Space Shuttle era tech into a new overpriced rocket that's already effectively obsolete before it's even finished. [1] And Boeing is also one of the largest military industrial complex contractors.

Of course in 40 or 50 years, SpaceX will just be another Boeing. Maybe there's an argument for not perpetuating massive companies. They all seem to go from ideologically driven to MBA driven, yet their inertia and size makes it quite difficult to compete against them, resulting in an overall stagnation in technology and efficiency.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System

Re: Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report

#55

Post by the_third_wave »

number6 wrote: post #49
morkalork wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a BBC Nova episode about the soviet union with an apocryphal story about train schedulers being evaluated on the amount of cargo shipped by distance so of course, freight was sent on the least efficient route to its destination. Amazing to see the exact same metric get gamed again.

German trains are evaluated on their timelines. If a train is more then an hour delayed passengers get their money back. So every train that runs into a high delayed is marked as "Cancelled" and if followed by an "Ersatzzug" that is curiously similar to the canceled train, because if the train is cancelled, the passengers don't get their money back if a Ersatz is followed promptly

It doesn't work that way. Travellers are entitled to 25% restitution if they arrive at their destination station between 1 and 2 hours later than planned, 50% reduction if delayed by more than 2 hours. It does not matter how they arrive there, either using their originally scheduled services or some alternative ("ersatz"), it is the time of arrival that matters.

BYW, this is not just in Germany, the rule goes for many countries in the EU.

Source: been there, done that (too) many times.

Re: Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report

#56

Post by taskforcegemini »

morkalork wrote: post #21
SignalM wrote: post #8

Worked in one. They are safety nightmares. They give safety bonuses if “nothing is reported” so nothing gets reported. Working conditions suck.. you spend your time begging for AC in a metal can in 100 degree heat (outside) on top of that the craziest thing was how subcontractors made money. I was in test so we wondered why certain runs of cable were way out of spec. Turns out subcontractors are paid by the foot to i…

There's a BBC Nova episode about the soviet union with an apocryphal story about train schedulers being evaluated on the amount of cargo shipped by distance so of course, freight was sent on the least efficient route to its destination. Amazing to see the exact same metric get gamed again.

it's also what we do in Age of Empires 2 with our merchant carts.

Re: Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report

#57

Post by euroderf »

somenameforme wrote: post #54
maxglute wrote: post #40

Sometimes I wonder if US leadership, above the paygrade of naval leadership, assume that large surface combatants likely won't be survivable in a peer war. Then they'd do exactly what they're doing now... stall naval projects and pivot. There's a lot of motivated naval lobbying decrying the state of US ship building, but we can see in semi that US leadership fine with pouring 100s of billions in urgent industrial pol…

IMO it's all about the money being the main motivating factor. With government contracts more money should mean you can do a better job - which is why these contracts are so large. But there's a conflicting motivation to 'generate value for shareholders.' And this is further confounded by conflicts of interest in oversight. Congress not only receives large donations from the military industrial complex, but is also l…

> They all seem to go from ideologically driven to MBA driven

OT but, is there a public database of how many MBAs (as a %-age of workforce) are employed by various public companies ? It would be a helpful guide to companies to avoid.

Re: Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report

#58

Post by Ekaros »

jibe wrote: post #27
ryandrake wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The national security establishment is getting increasingly freaked out about the risk of a naval war with China. I guess military professionals might know things we don’t, but doesn’t a hot war with China strike everyone else as utterly ridiculous? China’s economy is so inextricably intertwined with those of the rest of the world, it would make no sense for either side. Mutually assured economic destruction. Yes,…

All China has to do is not invade Taiwan and there won’t be a war.

Or West to accept that sometimes countries claim things back.

Re: Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report

#59

Post by Retric »

maxerickson wrote: post #39
Retric wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s really difficult to impose efficiency on outside contractors without them cutting corners. Congress doesn’t want the government to do anything in house.

Wouldn't requiring that "cable runs" "meet spec" impose efficiency? (for the definition of efficiency that is worth caring about anyway)

Any single issue can be addressed, but this is a meta issue.

There’s overhead to a more detailed specification. Creating it takes time and people need to read and understand it, then you need someone to inspect the results to keep someone honest. It remove flexibility, and even tiny changes require large updates to the specification when then need to be reviewed etc.

So simply adding details to a specification inherently reduces efficiency.

Re: Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report

#60

Post by alephnerd »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #29
alephnerd wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the DRS is adopted the "use-it-or-lose-it" dichotomy should shift away due to a faster budget cycle

DRS?

It's the new proposal by the PPBE Reform Commission in the senate [0]

[0] - https://ppbereform.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Com...

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