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Jon Stewart on AI: It's replacing us in the workforce now

theguardian.com

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Re: Jon Stewart on AI: It's replacing us in the workforce now

#51

Post by addicted »

bdcravens wrote: post #15
gentleman11 wrote: post #10

A lot of dismissive comments in here already by people who aren’t trying to make a living doing writing, art, or voiceover. It will be music soon too. Tutoring is probably heavily affected already too “But those weren’t real jobs,” some might say. So it doesn’t count until it replaces programmer jobs? Because that’s coming soon too. Would you really encourage your kids to go into this field, expecting them to still h…

We also used to have a middle class consisting of horseshoers, elevator operators, and gas station attendants. Many programmers do little more than glue together framework code, and make an excellent living doing it. Little sets them apart other than how fast they jump to the framework of the week. There's not a lot of separation from rent-seeking. What would you do to change the direction of things? Make AI illegal,…

Whether we can or cannot do something about is a wholly different question from whether it’s an issue at all.

I see so many people basically say “there’s nothing we can do about it therefore there’s no problem at all”. I don’t think this is a coincidence. This is a very deliberate effort by those in the tech space who want to capture and privatize all the benefits for themselves to make it seem like there are no alternatives to the current trajectory of a handful of companies hoarding all the benefits of AI.

Once you accept that there are possible problems one can do stuff to address those problems, such as maybe democratizing AI so it benefits anybody and not just a handful of people who happened to be at the right place at the right time.

Heck, even if you accept that there isn’t a problem you can still recognizing that the current trajectory may not be a good one.

Re: Jon Stewart on AI: It's replacing us in the workforce now

#52

Post by Shawnj2 »

rayiner wrote: post #46

AI promises to be the antidote to the ills of the knowledge economy. Computer technology multiplied the productivity of a small class of high-IQ workers, leading to massive inequality between knowledge workers and other workers. AI, if it works, promises to level the playing field again. It’s not going to replace plumbers, nurses, and HVAC technicians. It’s going to replace the top 20% of mostly college educated know…

So now everyone except business people will be lower middle class

Re: Jon Stewart on AI: It's replacing us in the workforce now

#53

Post by seadan83 »

paxys wrote: post #35
seadan83 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The perspective is different for a software engineer compared to an artist or an actor. Jon Stewart is not talking about the IT industry

Which artist or actor has lost a job to AI?

Jon Stewart, in the original context, is concerned about the near future. That is not to say the impacts on the film/tv/screen-writing industry are not already being felt today.

The SAG-AFTRA strike was in large part about AI. The fact the strike happened, that approximately 200k people were that concerned about their livilhood that they went on strike is all quite strong evidence there is a real concern. At this juncture, I think the burden of proof would be on you for why those 200k people had no concerns, that they skipped paychecks and sold their homes for nothing.

A strike that was so painful to the union itself, seemingly would have been about something important. "the "harshest pain" was "perhaps felt among the below-the-line workers who've had to sell or mortgage their homes, and wipe through IRAs to survive." [1] If that strike was over nothing, that sure was a lot of pain to inflect for no cause of concern what-so-ever. I would trust those people to know their own industry far better than myself.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_SAG-AFTRA_strike

-------------------

I don't see Devin or any other type of AI practically replacing a software engineer any time soon. I believe we agree there, and perhaps that was your original point. I think that point was incorrectly extrapolated to other industries. Further, the timeline for when jobs can be taken by AI is different for different industries. This article, where I was trying to see if I could find any raw numbers, summed up the concern pretty well for actors & screen-writers (in essence, AI is already there for them):

> Using AI to create performances that never took place is not just hypothetical. It is already happening. But AI-generated deepfakes, such as a series of convincing but totally fabricated videos of a Tom Cruise doppelganger, are mostly found on social media, not in movies or shows from the studios.

> But the same technology could easily be used to replace the actors in background roles in studio and streaming productions — the ones listed in the credits with titles like “second police officer” or “waiter in the restaurant.” These roles generate a huge number of the jobs that SAG-AFTRA members depend on to pay their bills. [2]

Which is to say, as a software engineer, when I look at Devin, I call BS that it can replace another software engineer. Though, if my trade were creating images, AI is already there were a film industry could decide they want pictures of 6 fingered people because it will boost their profit margin, that is already a reality. If I were shown an AI that did almost exactly my job, I would probably be concerned.

Is this all a bad thing, a good thing, avoidable, or even necessary? I don't know. Is it happening - yes, in different industries to different degrees. (Frankly, we in hacker news need to get our heads out of our asses, not everyone in the world is a software engineer)

[2] https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/business/ai-actors-strike/ind...

Re: Jon Stewart on AI: It's replacing us in the workforce now

#54

Post by gentleman11 »

mechagodzilla wrote: post #28
cute_boi wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Soon enough new ones will spring up to take their place 10 new jobs cannot be sufficient to replace 100 replaced jobs. What are other 90 going to do?

We find ourselves, in 2024, with unemployment levels (at least in the US) at near all-time lows. This is after centuries of mechanization and automation, decades of the computer and internet revolutions (which have barely any steam left, compared to the previuous ~70 years of rapid improvement), and with a global demographic shift that will actually require significant productivity improvements (as in "more output pe…

Yeah. A lot of people I know even have 2-3 jobs! Even combined, they don’t pay well enough to build retirement savings. It’s easy to find work when you’re being paid less than minimum wage as a contractor at 2-3 companies

Re: Jon Stewart on AI: It's replacing us in the workforce now

#55

Post by fragmede »

musicale wrote: post #50
fragmede wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> sitting alone at home and watching TV for weeks straight is an inhuman way to exist It is, but I'd argue that's a failure of imagination on their part to do anything else other than watch TV. There are many opportunities to volunteer somewhere and get engaged with a community, but they have to get off their couch to do it. (don't even need to get off the couch, given the right set of skills.)

When TV and virtual worlds are more appealing than the real world, which one are people going to choose?

Escaping reality is a time honored tradition, whether it be chemical, digital, or biological. Heroin addicts are looking to escape just as much as TV addicts. People are going to choose what they chose. Naively I choose to believe that people are eventually able to choose differently, and choose life.

Re: Jon Stewart on AI: It's replacing us in the workforce now

#56

Post by rayiner »

Shawnj2 wrote: post #52
rayiner wrote: post #46

AI promises to be the antidote to the ills of the knowledge economy. Computer technology multiplied the productivity of a small class of high-IQ workers, leading to massive inequality between knowledge workers and other workers. AI, if it works, promises to level the playing field again. It’s not going to replace plumbers, nurses, and HVAC technicians. It’s going to replace the top 20% of mostly college educated know…

So now everyone except business people will be lower middle class

Everyone will be middle class again. The present societal consternation is coming from the gap between the middle class and the upper middle class. The middle class Virginia town where I grew up isn’t unaffordable for regular people because of Jeff Bezos. It’s because the town is now full of Google employees and lawyers. And soaring education costs are the result of an arm’s race trying to get into the upper middle class, since that’s what it takes to maybe be able to buy a house where you grew up.

Knowledge workers are the ones creating that gap, and places without them are a lot better for ordinary people. Consider somewhere like Iowa, which is very flat economically because there’s no knowledge work. The median income is a bit lower than say New Jersey. But in practice life is better. You can buy a house for 3-4x the median income, because there’s no Amazon engineers pushing you out of the way.

Re: Jon Stewart on AI: It's replacing us in the workforce now

#57

Post by subjectsigma »

serf wrote: post #11
subjectsigma wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Working for living is a problem to be solved. I strongly, viscerally disagree with this. People (mostly) need to feel like they are capable agents and also like they are contributing to something larger than themselves. I’ve seen friends struggle to get a job and find their place in the world; sitting alone at home and watching TV for weeks straight is an inhuman way to exist, and that’s where a lot of people will…

a person can be made to feel capable without requiring a living wage. similarly : work exists outside of wages, as do co-operative and unpaid grand works. the (probably fantastical) hope is that when a 'living wage' as a concept disappears it will free up people to pursue things that they're actually passionate about to form an identity and purpose. put from another angle : do you think it's great that people can't f…

> put from another angle : do you think it's great that people can't find identity without employment?

That’s like asking me if I think it’s ‘great’ that people have two legs and a finite lifespan. It just is. What you choose to do under constraints is a big part of your identity.

> it seems to me we should treat 'lack of identity and self worth due to lack of employment' as a pathology

Man, is there anything that isn’t a pathology these days?

Re: Jon Stewart on AI: It's replacing us in the workforce now

#58

Post by slibhb »

gentleman11 wrote: post #10

A lot of dismissive comments in here already by people who aren’t trying to make a living doing writing, art, or voiceover. It will be music soon too. Tutoring is probably heavily affected already too “But those weren’t real jobs,” some might say. So it doesn’t count until it replaces programmer jobs? Because that’s coming soon too. Would you really encourage your kids to go into this field, expecting them to still h…

What's the alternative here? Make laws so that people aren't allowed to use AI to replace X job?

If AI replaces my job, I'll accept it. I don't want to do a job that could better be done by a machine.

Re: Jon Stewart on AI: It's replacing us in the workforce now

#59

Post by subjectsigma »

FranzFerdiNaN wrote: post #44
subjectsigma wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Working for living is a problem to be solved. I strongly, viscerally disagree with this. People (mostly) need to feel like they are capable agents and also like they are contributing to something larger than themselves. I’ve seen friends struggle to get a job and find their place in the world; sitting alone at home and watching TV for weeks straight is an inhuman way to exist, and that’s where a lot of people will…

Your friends struggle because they live in a world that determines someone’s worth by their jobs. Also their ability to pay rent and food and such. So of course in such a world they would be depressed. That doesn’t mean we need some idiot with a higher rank in some office to give us meaningless tasks.

Do you think cheetahs struggle with the fact that they have to work hard every day to kill other living, feeling creatures just to survive?

Re: Jon Stewart on AI: It's replacing us in the workforce now

#60

Post by onel »

subjectsigma wrote: post #5
nabla9 wrote: post #2

My sincere hope is that that would happen. Especially in medium and high income jobs in mass scale. Working for living is a problem to be solved. The purpose of technology is to automate things, increase free time. The purpose of politics is to distribute gains justly, whatever that is.

> Working for living is a problem to be solved. I strongly, viscerally disagree with this. People (mostly) need to feel like they are capable agents and also like they are contributing to something larger than themselves. I’ve seen friends struggle to get a job and find their place in the world; sitting alone at home and watching TV for weeks straight is an inhuman way to exist, and that’s where a lot of people will…

> People (mostly) need to feel like they are capable agents and also like they are contributing to something larger than themselves.

100%, but that doesn't mean it has to be work. That doesn't have to be a job, especially one that you enjoy only 30% of the time. Purpose can come form lots of things, but we just push everyone to make that thing commercial, part of capitalism

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