51–60 of 130 posts
They suggest Pinterest will use the money to expand internationally. What does this mean? Buy infrastructure internationally or just pursue overseas advertisers?
If anyone is interested in building Hacker News with photos get in contact.
I feel sorry for you guys.
You have created a soap bubble, namely ignorance, around your selfs.
Facebook got a $15B valuation from investors including Microsoft way back in 2007 [1] when they had only 50 million users (MySpace had 100 million users) and absolutely no advertising infrastructure in place whatsoever; they got this valuation and made $240 million in investor funding before they'd made a penny directly in advertising. Meanwhile, Pinterest already has amassed well over 10 million users in a very shor…
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124335674958054943.html
http://www.insidefacebook.com/2009/02/14/facebook-surpasses-...
Facebook got a $15B valuation from investors including Microsoft way back in 2007 [1] when they had only 50 million users (MySpace had 100 million users) and absolutely no advertising infrastructure in place whatsoever; they got this valuation and made $240 million in investor funding before they'd made a penny directly in advertising. Meanwhile, Pinterest already has amassed well over 10 million users in a very shor…
That $15 billion number was inflated. It was valued at $10 billion in January 2009, at which point it had "made a penny directly in advertising". It also had 175 million users the following month, or 17.5x the number of users of Pinterest. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124335674958054943.html http://www.insidefacebook.com/2009/02/14/facebook-surpasses-...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Let me help you out with this part "Is it worth $1.5B?" If you are left holding the bag, and they have to generate 1.5B in sales over their lifetime from this money to make it a worthwhile investment, then no: pinterest will never accrue 1.5B in revenue over its lifetime. If you are not left holding the bag and this bubble keeps inflating, yes. It's easy to see how Pinterest can raise money at an even higher valuatio…
On what basis could you not have said the exact same thing about Facebook 5 years ago?
Other such bases include network effects that come with the whole Facebook model (what it is, i.e. social graph) and that in some way it may even be a "natural monopoly". (People completely miss this when comparing it to myspace, which was never a literal, programmatic social graph).
Finally, again I don't know where this was five years ago, but credibility and buy-in based on how Facebook rolled out (Harvard, universities, etc...) may have been a factor.
Also due to the Facebook model it doesn't make sense for ANYONE to start a profile on a site that doesn't have any profiles on it. It's all about having friends on there. By contrast, Pinterest has already been ripped off by the German Pinspire: http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/pinspire_the_hottest_ne...
If I want to sign up on Pinterest, I can sign up on Pinspire and it still makes SOME sense. (As opposed to signing up to a competitor to Facebook when all my friends are on Facebook).
So, there are several bases that I could have used to put Facebook at a completely different valuation.
Mark my words: (you can bookmark this). Pinterest will not make 1.5Billion in revenue over its whole lifetime, unless the bubble keeps expanding and it gets at a similar amount of cold, hard cash to spend on customer acquisition: the "Groupon model". (Which I consider possible! See my comment you replied to. I am definitely not saying that it can't get another investment at a 50 billion dollar valuation and make the people who just invested 200 million very, very happy. Nor am I saying it won't be able to use the fifty billion dollar valuation. I am saying that, indeed, it depends on it - or will never be able to justify the 1.5billion valuation it just received.)
In other words, yes, I am saying that it will not be able to turn the 200 million it just raised into 1.5 billion cash over its whole lifetime, without raising more money.
You might disagree with me, but at least I am being direct and not wishy-washy. You can falsify me soon enough if you are right.
Well I'm going to head off the predictable and boring "bubble" comments and say this: Pinterest has real value and a clear path to monetization through affiliate and/or advertising revenue. It's really a stupidly simple idea (essentially scrapbooking on the Web) executed incredibly well. Is it worth $1.5B? I don't know. I would say it's definitely worth more than Instagram for whatever that's worth (not a lot). I gue…
Saying that predictably gets you upvotes for sure. But it's not about "bubble" comments being "boring" or not. The question is whether bubble claims have any substance. If they have, the bubble won't simply go away just because some people wish it would.
Is it worth $1.5B? I don't know. I would say it's definitely worth more than...
Comparisons like this are inflationary. It seems you really don't care about bubbles. But a bubble would affect many people here at HN.
It doesn't matter whether bubble comments are boring or not, it's about the importance of a bubble.
Normally I am not one to comment on fundraising, and I have stayed out of the whole "bubble" debate. But, honestly, this is really getting a little out of hand now. The whole funding situation is getting really frothy. $1.5b pretty much prices them out of any real acquisition now for the most part. So is Pinterest going to go IPO? Where do they go from here? That's the question of the day.
I think the natural path for Pinterest will be to merge with Groupon, another shopping-related site and one that has survived an IPO--at least for now. This new site will combine the deals of Groupon with the design of Pinterest. Users will coupons, which are automatically pinned to the appropriate boards with automatically chosen photos. Of course, Pinterest is all about design, which is why Groupon will also have t…
But I'm thinking, more so than Pinterest it's closer to "Path" where you and your small network of close friends collectively get a deal (at Jerry's liquor, lovely example) then post cute photos of your night/experience (sans the trip on the porcelain bus) which become public on "Jerry's Drive-In Liquor" or whatever, and exposes the deal to other people in the private networks of those who were in your private network... a sort of "local viral" marketing effect which works as advertising and as the regular "look how awesome my saturday night was" that we (what? just me?) use Facebook/Instagram for anyway.
I think it perfectly combines the innate desire to show off and receive value while maintaining an air of exclusivity plus the whole validation thing, from strangers and friends alike.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
On what basis could you not have said the exact same thing about Facebook 5 years ago?
I don't remember where I was five years ago and what Facebook was saying, but if you look at this graph http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Facebook_popularity.PNG at 2007, and remember what Facebook is (since day 1), it's pretty easy to see Facebook making the argument that it will be used by pretty much everyone, everywhere. It's pretty obvious that pinterest has no such claim. That is one such basis. Other such base…
In addition, Pinterest sits much closer to transactions than Facebook does. Facebook currently makes around $5/user/year, just given Pinterest's proximity to the transaction its relatively easy to imagine how they could hit a 3-5x multiple of that. It's feasible that Pinterest could hit Facebook style revenues at 1/4 of Facebook's userbase, and they are already 1/30th of the way there. With this investment thesis $1.5BN is a hell of a deal.
Right now I think there are only two real major risks (neither of which I personally believe to be true): 1. Pinterest may be a fad with no staying power. 2. Pinterest has a much smaller target demographic than Facebook and their growth may soon cap out.
With regards to your argument about Pinspire that's just bogus. There were plenty of Facebook clones that got early traction in other markets, none of them won.
You may be direct, but you're getting down voted because your 'argument' is nonexistent and lacks any real substance. (For one, no pure software company is taking a 1x multiple) The reality is that Pinterest is probably already undervalued at $1.5BN and barring the risks above coming to fruition has a real shot at becoming worth $25BN+ within 5-7 years based on revenues alone.
