Live data from Hacker News

Will AI usher in an era of explosive economic growth?

vox.com

51–55 of 55 posts

Re: Will AI usher in an era of explosive economic growth?

#51
post #27

Not sure why everyone is saying no, the answer is obviously yes. Having infinitely patient and accurate brains that can spin up in a dime will be the greatest economic boon we have ever seen.

Okay woah. Absolutely nothing about our current generation of AI is accurate at all. 67% even 87% on synthetic benchmarks does not intelligence make. It’s all statistics based, it’s not infinitely accurate, nor do we have any reason to think any AI system would exhibit anything resembling patience. They don’t exist outside of inference time, let alone have a sense of the passage of time.

Sure today it is, what about in a year or two years? And yes AI models are way more patient than humans for the exact reason you mention, the logistics of that don't matter, the result does

Re: Will AI usher in an era of explosive economic growth?

#52
post #23

Not sure why everyone is saying no, the answer is obviously yes. Having infinitely patient and accurate brains that can spin up in a dime will be the greatest economic boon we have ever seen.

Sure, that would be true. I think people are more interested in talking about the AI we actually have today.

Sure but we aren't far off from a GPT-5, this year we will see much more capable models

Re: Will AI usher in an era of explosive economic growth?

#53
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize we are mechanical, thinking beings. What else is left for us to do?

Social engagement. There has always been a small segment of people able to make a life that way, but with the other two concerns out of the way it opens the floodgates.

This is the conclusion I've been coming around to as well.

> There has alwasy been a small segment of people able to make a life that way

This is the same with the move from mechanical to thinking. There was always a small segment of "thinkers" for everyone else, it was secondary to their mechanical abilities.

What has me thinking now is, if this is true, when we figure out how machines can be social, do we unlock another element of humanity which we don't recognize or appreciate yet?

Re: Will AI usher in an era of explosive economic growth?

#54
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, that would be true. I think people are more interested in talking about the AI we actually have today.

Sure but we aren't far off from a GPT-5, this year we will see much more capable models

Bird brains, maybe. I'm not sure what your expectations of GPT5 are but I meet GPT4's limits every day.

Re: Will AI usher in an era of explosive economic growth?

#55

I have a (non-serious) conspiracy theory that the reality of AI is exactly counter to what we think. Once AI takes hold, we will no longer see such extremes of income inequality. With that being the case, there's efforts underway to stifle AI. It looks like big business hasn't been the quickest to adopt. It's been full steam ahead on things like self-driving cars, even though at times the level of safety has been exa…

> Once AI takes hold, we will no longer see such extremes of income inequality. That's a very optimistic view. From where I'm sitting, it seems like the rich people control all three of the important AI companies (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic) and all one (Nvidia) of the important chipmakers, so they will likely get even richer and many comparatively poor people will lose their jobs.

This isn't a view, I would consider it more of a fringe theory without evidence. Nor am I optimistic.

Under this "concept", we are actually being held back and robbed. The exact reason this is undesirable won't be the clearest. Also, the exact mechanism would be a bit mysterious. If I could explain and prove it, it wouldn't be a fringe theory.

It's a way of reasoning that looks only at behaviors through a cynical lens. Purely, just looking at how business has responded compared to eg. self driving cars, data security, ect.

Does it not feel like there's some extra care here that doesn't really make sense compared to how industry handled similar issues?

The bigger counterpoint would be if the money and effort that IS there. (there is, it's a huge flaw in this theory)

Getting to the hypothetical reasons it could go this way: 1. With more people out of work there will be more discussion and organizing about why some people get so much stuff, while others are destitute. People will no longer be too tired from work and instead either a) [good] living lives of leisure OR b) [bad] out of work, desperate, and pissed off.

In any case, with so many people of leisure, it will actually become clearer that we're all the same. Who cares who your daddy is? Why do we need gorgeous empty properties, while we cannot provide basic housing to the population. Look at the extreme and disgusting wastefulness from the "elite" in society.

With everyone working and fighting for limited resources, you can hide this. While we all may go down to the office and sit at the desk for similar time, some are able to inflate their contributions... sometimes correctly, but who cares? Usually it's not the most dedicated, impactful workers, but the various princes and kings fighting over the loot. However, it looks like some people so much more valuable. When no ones doing anything, it looks different.

2. Without labor being a factor for eg. ~40-80% of people out of work, there won't be money flowing to pay the capitalists. This could result in economic collapse, hurting us all. However, perhaps we could see changes in the economic system that only hurt the wealthiest.

3. Human resources are actually and extremely common technical moat. If you've worked on technical projects you've probably realized that while one person can get a shocking amount done, the work can also easily become impractical for a single person or a small team.

Now it will be harder for corporations to lean on their intellectual property. When the tech doesn't do what people want, they'll just create one that does. Today this can prove absurdly impractical, but it might be much easier in the future. Currently, many companies rely on the fact that customers are likely locked in; they don't have options because it's a multi-billion dollar investment to make the product, so they're forced to accept what the company wants.

Post reply on HN