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Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

sheshbabu.com

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Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#51
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if they can understand the proofs first. However, LLMs aren't capable of writing proofs. They can only regurgitate text that looks like a proof by training on proofs already written. There's no reasoning behind what they produce. So why waste the time of a human to review it? If the provers' kernel and automation make the proof pass but it makes no sense, what use is it? People write proofs to make arguments to…

If the proof make it past the validation it’s a valid proof and makes sense by definition.

It means your proof proves something.

Whether it's something you care about, or even something that should be true at all is out of scope.

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#52
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when people used to say similar things about using ASM, and then about the craft of writing things in C instead of managed languages like Java. At the end of the day most people will only care about how the tool is solving the problem and how cheaply. A cheap, slow, dirty solution today tends to win over a expensive, quick, elegant one next year. Now there are still some people writing ASM, and a lot of th…

Writing code by typing on a keyboard will be just a hobby? Sure, and who is supposed to understand the code written by AI when we retire? Since writing code by typing on a keyboard will apparently cease to exist, who will write prompts for an AI and put the code together? Person: Hey AI, build me a website that does a, b and c. AI: Here you go. Person: Looks like magic to me, what do I do with all this text? AI: Push…

Presumably, the AI would have access to just do all the git and web server stuff for you.. The bigger problem I see would be if the AI just refuses to give you what you ask for.

Person: I want A

AI: Here's B

Person: No, I wanted A

AI: I'm sorry. Let me correct that... Here's B

.. ad nauseum.

Or alternatively:

Person:

AI: I'm sorry, I can't do that

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#53

It's a good overview, but I think there's one important aspect that's not discussed. We're looking at AI competing with the jobs that programmers do today, but it's likely that these new AI tools will change software itself. I mean, why have a complicated UI with design/validation/etc when you can just tell your phone you want a plane ticket to Paris tomorrow ? I'm just going to guesstimate that at least half of the…

I believe this is where we’re headed. AI replacing much of the software itself. You don’t need a website to manage your rental properties, another one for ordering food, etc.

However it’s not as imminent as “just fine tune it on personal data”.

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#55
This is the future of software development:

> The Administration will work with Congress and the private sector to develop legislation establishing liability for software products and services. Any such legislation should prevent manufacturers and software publishers with market power from fully disclaiming liability by contract, and establish higher standards of care for software in specific high-risk scenarios. To begin to shape standards of care for secure software development, the Administration will drive the development of an adaptable safe harbor framework to shield from liability companies that securely develop and maintain their software products and services. [1]

LLMs can help! But using them without careful babysitting will expose your company to unlimited liability for any mistakes they make. Do you have humans doing proper checking on their output? Safe harbor protections for you!

[1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Nation...

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#56
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the proof make it past the validation it’s a valid proof and makes sense by definition.

It means your proof proves something . Whether it's something you care about, or even something that should be true at all is out of scope.

This is what I meant, thanks for clarifying.

I might also add that, “they,” on the first line are software developers. Most are not trained to read proofs. Few enough can write a good test let alone understand when a test is insufficient evidence of correctness.

I had to learn on my own.

Even if LLMs could start dropping proofs with their PRs would they be useful to people if they couldn’t understand them or what they mean?

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#57
post #47
post #26

As long as there is no AGI, no software engineer needs to be worried about their job. And when there is, obviously everything in every field will change and this discussion will soon be futile.

You don’t have to completely replace people with machines to destroy jobs. It suffices if you make people more effective so that fewer employees are needed.

If software developers become more effective, demand will also rise, as they become profitable in areas where previously they weren't. The question then becomes which of those two effects outpaces the other, which is an open question.

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#58
post #47
post #26

As long as there is no AGI, no software engineer needs to be worried about their job. And when there is, obviously everything in every field will change and this discussion will soon be futile.

You don’t have to completely replace people with machines to destroy jobs. It suffices if you make people more effective so that fewer employees are needed.

The number of people/businesses that could use custom software if it were cheaper/easier to develop is nearly infinite. If software developers get more productive, demand will increase

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#59
post #26

As long as there is no AGI, no software engineer needs to be worried about their job. And when there is, obviously everything in every field will change and this discussion will soon be futile.

and does even AGI change the bigger picture? we have 26.3 million AGIs currently working in this space [1]. I've never seen a single one take all the work of the others away...

[1] https://www.griddynamics.com/blog/number-software-developers....

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#60

I think the expanded pie argument is probably valid to an extent. If costs go down, demand goes up. Also, I suspect new entrants to the field will start to slow as it won't be as lucrative as it once was. This is exactly what happened after outsourcing threatened wages in the 00's - followed by insanely high compensation in the 10's.

The expanded pie argument only works when there is something that cannot be done - or more cost effectively done - by the machine.

The argument in the article is that that something for SW developers is increasingly going to be to feed the machine with requirements.

I have no idea how this will pan out, but from where I am sitting the ability to converse and understand business users, even if they stay human ones, better than current sw devs do doesn't feel like much of a moat, especially with the machine's evolving io modalities.

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